Hubub placing Bets on When Folwer Will Be Released

I finds no evidence that supports the statement that the FFR captured Robert Fowler, but here is the report...

My Reading of their website explicitly Denies capturing Robert Fowler...

Shimron

When will kidnapped Canadian Robert Fowler be released?

Current forecast: Fowler is not released before 1/19/09 (80% chance)

• Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Fowler is not released before 1/19/09 with a probability of 80% (unchanged in last 1 day)


• "Tuareg rebels claim they have kidnapped a United Nations envoy to Niger.In a statement on its Web site, the FFR rebel group said that it seized Canadian Robert Fowler and three others in an operation Monday.


• The U.N. said Fowler along with his assistant and their driver went missing Sunday. "http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28250880/


• The rebels, representing a nomadic tribal group released a statement saying they took the U.N. special envoy to Niger to send a message to Canada for providing arms to Niger's government for use against the Tuareg people.


• If this is their reasoning, they probably won't want to hold Fowler and the others too long. But how long will that be?


• Category Editor Note: The question originally had the first option reading "released by 12/28/08", which overlapped the second one. This has been fixed. If you wagered on 1 or 2 prior to the edit, and wish your bet canceled, contact me via a flag. The final option has been slightly changed for a similar reason.

The Rest @ Hubub.com