UN to Take Action as Eritrea and Others Still Trafficking Arms to al Shabaab

The troops backed by TFG soldiers have now secured the towns of Qoqani, Tabda and Afmadow in Somalia.No casualties were reported on the Kenyan side and the port of Kismayu on Somalia’s coastline is the next clear target as terrorist group.
Kenya has accused Eritrea of being behind three planeloads of weapons delivered last month to Al Shabaab at Baidoa airport.
On Tuesday, President Kibaki welcomed the support Kenya has obtained from both its citizens and governments in the operation against the militants who seek to destabilise the region’s economies.

While opening the Regional Infrastructure Conference at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre in Nairobi, Kibaki said: "As we embark on planning our infrastructure programmes, I wish to underscore the importance of peace and stability in our region."
Meanwhile, a police Toyota Land Cruiser escorting aid agency vehicles headed back to the UN complex in Dadaab reportedly hit a landmine on Tuesday along the road to Hagdera refugee camp, injuring two people.
North Eastern PPO Leo Nyongesa confirmed the incident. Last night President Kibaki worked late at his Harambee House offices discussing internal security matters with top departmental officials.
In July, the UN Somalia-Eritrea Sanctions Monitoring Group cited what it called "credible information received from multiple sources" that said aircraft carrying arms, ammunition, equipment, militia commanders and wounded fighters on behalf of Al Shabaab landed in Baidoa, Baledogley and Kismayu from Eritrea.
The UN Group is already preparing a list of individuals and States targeted for sanctions.
In addition to Eritrean officials, the list is expected to include Mr Abdirahman Abdi "Salawat"; a Somali national who the UN says illegally obtained Kenyan identity cards and passports. It gives the numbers for Salawat’s Kenyan passports as A739601 and A183790 under the alias "Abdi Warsame Dirie".

He is accused of actively smuggling Somali emigrants to Europe since 2004, and acting as broker for Somalis who encounter "immigration difficulties in Kenya".

Illegal immigrants

Also named is Salawat’s alleged associate, a Mr Abdullahi Abdinur Mohamed ‘Topolino’ who it says held "a Sh350,000 a month lease agreement for a property on 10th Street, Eastleigh. This property, which subsequently came to be known as Top Ten Hotel (now called Gaman Hotel)."

The two are accused of facilitating the provision of forged Kenyan identity cards and passports to illegal Somali emigrants.

Eritrea has dismissed the claims against it as a "fabrication" and a ploy by its bitter rival Ethiopia to undermine its international standing.

But the Monitoring Group says it has evidence of Eritrea violating various Security Council resolutions. They include resolution 1844 of 2008 and1907 of 2009.

It says "the Government of Eritrea conceived, planned, organised and directed a failed plot to disrupt the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa by bombing civilian and governmental targets."
The UN also says Eritrea’s intelligence apparatus, which spearheaded the AU bombing plot, is also active in Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, and Uganda, making it a threat to those countries.

Sources for the UN include Eritrean military, intelligence and diplomatic officials who it says "retain active contacts within the Government of Eritrea and PFDJ, and in some cases were able to obtain information from serving Eritrean officials."

The UN Monitoring Group report says Al Shabaab in the past benefited from the fact that "the Transitional Federal Government security forces and their local allies continue to be little more than clan-based militias with loyalties to individual commanders and that look to Amisom rather than to the Government for leadership and support".

\Also targeted for sanctions are heads of indigenous networks engaged in recruitment, radicalisation and resource mobilisation on behalf of Al Shabaab in Kenya. It mentions the Muslim Youth Centre "commonly known as Pumwani Muslim Youth", which it accuses of actively recruiting for the insurgents.
The centre has since denied the allegations that it facilitated travel to Somalia for Kenyan youth recruited to train and fight for Al Shabaab.

The group also names several hotels in Nairobi as "safe houses" for illegal Somali emigrants with links to Salawat.

Best equipped

Reports also quote the African Union’s Peace and Security Commissioner Ramtane Lamamra as saying the entry into the conflict by the Kenya Defence Forces – arguably the best equipped and most disciplined military force in the region – offers the best chance yet in years of cutting of supply lines to Al Shabaab.
KDF has already cut off a key revenue stream of the insurgents by blocking smuggling routes for charcoal, electronics, and clothing across the Kenya-Somali border.

The Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea estimates that by July, Al Shabaab was generating between $70 million to $100 million per year in revenue from extortion and taxing traders in areas under its control.

"You see Al Shabaab is under pressure because Kenya is taking advantage of assets, helicopters, aircraft, and navy vessels. So clearly today, we have even the possibility to implement a no-fly zone, thanks to Kenya’s assets. So it is different," he said.

Six East African countries involved in fighting the insurgents have also appealed for more international support to assist the African Union Mission in Somalia, following a meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on Monday.
The meeting heard that Al Shabaab is in disarray following its ouster from 98 per cent of the capital Mogadishu, and the ongoing joint offensive by the Kenya Defence Forces and soldiers of Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG).

The pledge to pursue sanctions against the insurgents and their allies came from the UN special envoy for Somalia, Augustine Mahiga, who said a UN Security Council-appointed monitoring group will recommend broad sanctions against Al Shabaab and its allies that include freezing their assets as well as ban on travel and import of weapons.

The meeting involved the defence chiefs of Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, and Burundi met at African Union headquarters.

Other sources quote UN Chief of Field Operations, Susana Malcorra who is in the region to assess conditions, as saying closer co-operation among countries that oppose Al Shabaab will be necessary to ensure defeat of the insurgents and restoration of peace in Somalia.

By Collins Kweyu in Tabda

The Rest @ The Standard (Kenya)

Eritrea Still Trafficking Point Arms to al Shabaab

The Kenyan military said two planes landed at an al-Shabab controlled airfield in Somalia this week, loaded with arms destined for the al-Qaida-linked group. The news immediately heightened longstanding suspicions that Eritrea is arming Somali militants.

The Kenyan military did not say from where the airplanes came, but that they landed in the south-central town of Baidoa, an al-Shabab stronghold, and that they were carrying weapons for the militant group.

Local media reports were quick to pin the shipment on Eritrea, which has long been accused of supplying al-Shabab.

The Eritrean Foreign Ministry issued a statement Wednesday denying the accusations, calling them “pure fabrications and outright lies.” It also accused its regional rival Ethiopia of being the chief author of a disinformation campaign aimed at discrediting Eritrea.

But, Rashid Abdi, an analyst with the International Crisis Group says Eritrea has a history of supplying militants in Somalia.

“I think no one doubts that Eritrea has throughout the last four years been supportive of al-Shabab, sending in weapons, sending in trainers and also training hundreds of al-Shabab fighters in some of its military camps," said Abdi. "But, as I said, it is very difficult to confirm this news story that this support has been resumed by Eritrea.”

A United Nations report released in July alleged Eritrea had flown weapons and fighters into Somalia on numerous occasions.

The report also said Eritrea has been funneling about $80,000 per month to people linked to al-Shabab through the Eritrean embassy in Nairobi. Eritrea has consistently denied the accusations.

Why fund al-Shabab? Rashid Abdi says it is all about Ethiopia:

“Eritrea definitely has been supportive of al-Shabab for a long time and this support is not ideological, it is essentially meant to counter Ethiopia's influence in Somalia and during the Ethiopian occupation, that was the height of Eritrea's involvement in Somalia,” he said.

Eritrea and Ethiopia fought an intense border war between 1998 and 2000 and tensions have remained high ever since. Analysts say this prompted Eritrea's alleged support of al-Shabab during Ethiopia's invasion of Somalia in 2006.

Now Kenyan troops are pursuing al-Shabab in Somalia, in a cross-border operation that began nearly three weeks ago.

Kenya blames the militants for a spate of recent kidnappings and attacks and has vowed to continue fighting until the threat is eliminated and Kenyans can feel secure.

This week, a spokesperson for the Kenyan army warned of impending military strikes on al-Shabab targets across Somalia, including Baidoa, Afmadow and the port town of Kismayo.

The Rest @ VOA

MOGADISHU, May 3 (Reuters) -

Somalia's security minister on Sunday accused Eritrea of supplying arms to insurgents to fight the government.

"Eritrea is actively meddling in Somalia by importing weapons," Omar Hashi Aden told reporters.Eritrea has denied sending arms or material support to Somalia in the past.

"We ask the world community to do something about Eritrea's direct interference," he said.

• He said two flights from Eritrea had landed at a former military airport 110km (68.3 miles) southwest of the capital now under the control of the al Shabaab insurgents, who are on Washington list of terrorism groups.

(Reporting by Ibrahim Mohamed, Abdi Sheikh and Abdi Guled, Writing by Wangui Kanina)

The Rest @ Reuters Africa

Relief Web - Shabaab may attack Ethiopia, Eritria, Djibouti or other COuntires in 2009

The following is a reliefweb assessmenbt of the Horn of Africa in 2009. I am in almost complete agreement with this assessment; hoever, I bleieve they have under emphasised the possibility that the Shabaab, fueled by al Qaeda money and claming the victory of after Ethiopian withdrawal, will expand into every country they can.

In fact, Robow has said they plan to expand their attacks until "all of Somalia is under Sharia", and their recent multi-city simultenouse sucicide bombings are a taste of more to come unless steps are taken by the international community.

Robow is in Charge in the South, and Islamic Courts Union no longer has a say in his plans. Make no mistake, his the emir of the Shabaab.


I believe Kenya should be added to Ethiopia, Eritria, Djibouti as countries into which Shabaab will conduct Jihad attacks.

-Shimron Issachar



Horn of Africa's challenges grow - 05 Nov 2008

SUBJECT: The political and economic outlook for the Horn of Africa in 2009.

SIGNIFICANCE: The region in 2009 will continue to see some of the world's worst humanitarian, political, and security crises, but major political changes are in the air that could yield new opportunities for stability.

ANALYSIS: After a turbulent 2008, the Horn of Africa will continue to face serious challenges into 2009, especially in Somalia.

Key insights

• Food insecurity will be a major factor across the region, contributing to economic pressures from high prices and decreased remittances.
• Somalia's TFG and moderate opposition face a steep challenge in implementing the Djibouti Agreement, despite likely Ethiopian withdrawal.
• Ethiopia's border stalemate with Eritrea will continue, though the cost of war is probably too high for both sides.
• Somalia's Shabaab militants may take their insurgency against Ethiopia out of Mogadishu, and into Ethiopia itself or third countries.

Somalia Developments in Somalia will reverberate across the region:

1. Djibouti Agreement. The June 2008 Djibouti Agreement represents a hopeful breakthrough between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and moderate elements of the opposition, the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS).

• The accord commits both sides to a ceasefire, establishes a joint security committee for eventual integration of forces, envisions power-sharing talks, and calls for a UN mission to bolster African Union peacekeepers in order to permit the orderly withdraw of Ethiopian forces.
• However, the new moderate coalition formed under the agreement already faces serious resistance from hardliners in the TFG -- including President Abdullahi Yusuf and his supporters, who control all of the TFG security sector -- and the hardline Islamist Shabaab militia.

2. TFG future. The TFG enters the fifth and final year of its mandate completely dysfunctional and divided.

• There will probably be major leadership changes, and there is a real possibility that the TFG will be driven out of Mogadishu entirely by the insurgents once Ethiopian forces withdraw.
• The TFG's main preoccupation in 2009 will be to convince foreign governments and the UN to extend its mandate, despite its lack of progress.
• Donors do not want to see the TFG fail, and may consider other options even worse.

3. Ethiopian policies. Ethiopia has already redeployed much of its occupying force and appears intent on removing itself from Mogadishu later in November.

• The occupation has proven very costly to Ethiopia financially and diplomatically, and has had a corrosive effect on its military.
• However, Ethiopia has powerful security interests in shaping politics in post-intervention Somalia. It will thus keep some forces along border areas and will provide support to local allies to ensure, at a minimum, that hardline Islamists cannot consolidate control over Mogadishu.

4. Armed opposition. The insurgents in Somalia have essentially won -- they now control most of south and central Somalia and much of the capital.

• However, deep existing divisions between groups will certainly become worse once Ethiopian forces withdraw from Mogadishu and the TFG is no longer viable.
• Sporadic clashes between Islamist and clan militias answering to the ARS and the Shabaab have already occurred, with much more deadly clashes very likely to erupt in 2009 -- fuelled in part by external influences.

5. Humanitarian crisis. Somalia is now the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with 3.2 million people in need of aid, and relief efforts undermined by attacks on aid workers.

• The longer the crisis continues, the greater the danger that displaced Somalis will face famine conditions.
• If security improves in the capital, a massive spontaneous relocation of up to 700,000 displaced persons could result, creating its own relief challenges.

6. Somaliland. October terrorist bombings in Somaliland's capital Hargeysa badly shook residents, and reinforced fears that spill-over from the south will engulf the would-be state.

• Nevertheless, the longer-term impact of the terrorist bombings, for which Shabaab has claimed responsibility, will instead be the discrediting of radical Islamism in Somaliland and a concerted public and government effort to clamp down on hardline Islamists in their community.
• Somaliland is still likely to hold closely contested but not destabilising general elections sometime after March 2009.

7. Puntland and piracy. Security and governance in the northeast state of Puntland deteriorated badly in 2008, a trend that will worsen in 2009.

• Unpaid security personnel are the source of a major crime wave and the region is now the epicentre of the worst concentration of piracy in the world.
• The piracy is likely to face an increasingly heavy-handed international response, including attacks on the mainland lairs of the pirates and on the financial holdings of the powerful patrons behind the piracy.
• Puntland will also face severe security crises in 2009 if the TFG collapses and the uncontrolled government militiamen recruited from Puntland return home.

Border disputes.

The UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea dissolved in 2008, and the stand-off over the disputed border between Ethiopia and Eritrea shows no signs of peaceful resolution.

• Despite a heavy military build-up on the border, the threat of warfare between the two states has abated somewhat; risks are too high to both sides at this time.
• Eritrea's inexplicable border skirmish with neighbouring Djibouti is unlikely to be rekindled, as Djibouti enjoys the support of France and the United States, both of which have military bases there.
• Nevertheless, Ethiopia and Eritrea will continue to engage in proxy wars aimed at destabilising the other.

Ethiopia.

In 2009, Addis Ababa's biggest crisis will be economic, with the possibility of serious public unrest if food insecurity worsens:

Food shortages. A combination of factors -- inflation, high food and fuel costs, drought and security operations -- has resulted in 12 million Ethiopians being in need of emergency food aid.

• This emergency is concentrated in rural areas of eastern and southern Ethiopia, but affects most of the country. Forecasts suggest the crisis will worsen into 2009.
• Violence limits humanitarian access in eastern Ethiopia.

Economic pressures. Years of impressive economic growth are coming to an end, with the IMF's growth forecast for 2009 cut back to 6.4%.

• Remittances from the large diaspora are expected to drop. Pressures on urban households are growing and could spark unrest in major cities, where the government enjoys little support.
• Political clampdown. In April, the government consolidated control of district level political units in elections that were boycotted by the opposition. The government is passing controversial legislation that would severely curtail the activity of civil society groups to engage in any advocacy or human rights work.
• This closure of political space is expected to continue through 2009 despite external protests.

Insurgencies and terror threats.

• Government forces will continue to mount counter-insurgency operations in Somali Regional State against the
• That region will remain very volatile, and military operations will continue to target civilian populations suspected of supporting the ONLF
• The expansion of Shabaab suicide bombings into Somaliland and Puntland, which in one case destroyed an Ethiopian government building in Hargeysa, suggests that Shabaab insurgents intend to take its war with Ethiopia beyond southern Somalia.
• Terrorist attacks against Ethiopian targets inside Ethiopia or in third countries are thus a growing possibility in 2009.

Eritrea.

• Eritrea will continue to face extreme economic duress, including very worrisome food shortages, but will continue to embrace a policy of isolation and autarky in 2009.
• Opposition to the government is too weak to pose any threat of regime change, but the threat of a coup is worth watching if the current leadership allows the country to slip much further into economic collapse.

Djibouti.

Djibouti's incumbent party, the Union for the Presidential Majority, won all 65 seats of parliament in 2008 elections that were boycotted by the opposition.

• President Hassan Gouled will face no serious opposition in 2009, but the threat of terrorist attacks in Djibouti is greater in the wake of the expanded campaign by the Shabaab insurgency.

CONCLUSION: Armed conflict will worsen in Somalia in the short term but is likely to subside in an inconclusive stalemate, as a partial Ethiopian withdrawal removes some of the main drivers of the armed insurgency. Threats of terrorist attacks are greater across the region in 2009, especially against Ethiopian targets. Economic woes and food shortages will be the main preoccupation across the region.

The Rest @ Relief Web

Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aways to Replace Sharif Sheikh Ahmed?

ASMARA, Eritrea June 21 (Garowe Online) - An Islamist hardliner has said that he will rise to become chairman of the opposition Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS), a Somali opposition group founded in Eritrea last year. (Picture - Garowe Online)

Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, designated a terrorist by the U.S. government, told Arabic newspaper Asharq al Awsat that he will replace current ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed.

He accused Sheikh Sharif of being "too close the U.S. government," starting in January 2007 when Sheikh Sharif was apprehended by Kenyan police and later questioned by American officials at a hotel in Nairobi.

Sheikh AweysAccording to Sheikh Aweys, the current chairman of the ARS "violated" the opposition alliance's bylaws when he signed a peace pact with the Somali government on June 9th.

ARS members in the Eritrean capital of Asmara will convene in July to hold a meeting, where Sheikh Aweys is expected to be nominated to lead the opposition.

Sheikh Aweys, ARS defense secretary Yusuf Indha Ade and al Shabaab militants have all refused to recognize the June 9 agreement and vowed to continue the insurgency until Ethiopian troops leave Somali soil.

Sheikh Sharif and Sheikh Aweys were the leaders of the Islamic Courts movement, who ruled much of south-central Somalia in 2006 until being ousted by Ethiopian troops

The Rest @ Garowe OnLine

Eritrea Preparing to Attack Ethiopia?

Is Eritrea planning an attack on Ethiopia to try and get them to withdraw from Sudan?

In the last 24hours they are denying fuel to Peackeepers on the Border, who may have to withdraw.

When the UN gets its 26,000 member force in Sudan, Islamists waging a decade old campaign in North Africa will be outgunned.

This may be the next chess move after the Sudan backed Rebel assault on Chad last weekend.

-Shimron

UNITED NATIONS, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Eritrea has ignored a U.N. deadline to grant peacekeepers on its border with Ethiopia access to badly needed fuel, but U.N. troops fear war could break out and have not begun leaving, a U.N. official said.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon set a Wednesday deadline for Eritrea to allow the U.N. peacekeepers to refuel, saying they faced a fuel crisis. But the U.N. official said on Thursday that Eritrea had ignored the deadline.

• "The U.N. cannot afford to leave because it would create the conditions for a resumption of the conflict," a U.N. official told Reuters on condition of anonymity. "Abandoning our positions would sanctify a resumption of the conflict."
• He said that the U.N. peacekeepers were acting as a buffer between two neighbors, both of which have amassed troops on their borders.
• It was not clear how long the peacekeepers could stay put with only meager fuel supplies. If Eritrea continues to deny them fuel, they eventually will have to pull out, using their emergency fuel supplies to evacuate, the official said.
• Last week the U.N. Security Council renewed the mandate of the U.N. Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea, or UNMEE, for six months. The council also urged Eritrea to end its fuel blockade of U.N. staff.
• But Eritrea, which contends that a continued U.N. presence on the border would be tantamount to an occupation, ignored the demand, prompting a stern warning from the council on Monday.

The 1,700-member U.N. force went to the border in 2000 at the end of a two-year war between the two countries in the Horn of Africa that killed 70,000 people.

The Rest @ Reuters Africa

Asmara, Rebel Haven

By Jack Kimball

ASMARA, Sept 16 (Reuters) - They're all around me. In cafes sipping sweetened tea, walking down the Eritrean capital's tree-lined boulevards, or in a local fair.
Rebels are in Asmara, and they're everywhere you go.

From Sudan to Somalia, insurgents have descended on tranquil Asmara, some looking to overthrow governments, some looking for change, but all seeing Eritrea as a home-from-home.

As I sit in a caf drinking a cappuccino before meeting two Sudanese ex-rebels for lunch, some former Somali dissident lawmakers pass by in a taxi driven by an aging Eritrean.

Many taxi drivers in Eritrea are ex-rebel fighters themselves, and I wonder if the Somalis think that in a decade they will lead peaceful lives like him.

You never know who you're going to meet in Eritrea.

Riding through Asmara's thoroughfares on my Italian-made motorbike, I wave as I pass by Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, head of the Somali Islamists recently driven out of Mogadishu.
He's taking a stroll in his dark blue suit.

It's strangely fitting that Eritrea, which spent thirty, brutal years rising up against Ethiopia before gaining independence in 1991, should now host so many opposition groups.

The Red Sea state seems to be saying it's rebel-friendly, willing to take on world powers like the United States for having policies which Eritrea says are anathema to the region.

Eritrea's own rebels-turned-rulers have long, historic ties with many groups around Africa. Most Eritrean fighters travelled on Somali passports during their independence struggle, and many refugees took shelter in neighbouring Sudan.

But some in the West, including Washington which is threatening to put Asmara on its terrorism list, accuse Eritrea of not just hosting but also arming groups and thus destabilising one of the world's most fragile regions.

In more than a decade following independence, analysts say that Eritrea has tried to assert itself as a major regional power, getting involved in conflicts in such faraway places as eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.


Back at lunch with the two Sudanese ex-rebels, we're sipping liquorice-tasting alcohol and eating chicken with rice.

In the post-eating haze, we lounge around watching a movie called "The Truman Show" starring Jim Carey.

It wasn't a particularly memorable day. But two months later I hear that one of my fellow diners has been appointed a senior rebel commander fighting with one of Sudan's Darfur factions.

On another occasion, in a small office in Asmara, some rebels are talking about the kidnapping of a commander in Darfur. As we sip tea, conversation slowly turns to airplanes.

First, how, if you're lucky, a rocket-propelled grenade shot from underneath will only pierce the plane's skin and not kill you. Then how aesthetics affect our view of a plane's worth.

"The Hercules plane is much better than an Antonov," says one, referring to planes found throughout world hot spots.

"In an Antonov, you can see all the insides, the straps hanging down, all that stuff. It just freaks me out, but the Hercules is a beautiful plane," he says.

It's easy to forget that rebels have a past.

These men and women were once teachers, lawyers, scientists, presidents, ambassadors, army officers and the like.

But at some point, all chose to take up arms -- or just words -- for reasons as varied as their backgrounds.

Speeding by the pastel-coloured Art Deco buildings that have made this highland capital famous, I'm reminded that it's not just insurgents who've fled to this city.

Many architects came during the early part of last century to escape what they said was a stifling style in Europe, giving Africa one of its most architecturally unique cities.

The Rest @ Reuters Africa

Eritria Hostsing Somalia

ASMARA (Reuters) - A conference of Somali opposition figures due to start in Eritrea this weekend as a rival to government-sponsored peace talks in Mogadishu has been delayed, diplomats said on Friday.

Several Islamist leaders, some former Somali parliamentarians and an ex-deputy prime minister were among those due to attend the talks scheduled to start on Saturday.

The conference was intended to unite diverse groups who oppose Somalia's interim government and vehemently object to the presence of its Ethiopian military backers on Somali soil.
But various delegates had not arrived in Eritrea, and the agenda was still not properly prepared, diplomats said.

"I think they need a few more days to work out exactly how they're going to handle this conference," said one Western diplomat who tracks Somalia closely. "The main rallying flag is going to be 'get the Ethiopian troops out', that's for sure."

Some opposition figures, including Islamist leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, have taken exile in Eritrea, whose government is sympathetic to their cause and has bitter enmity with Ethiopia. News of the delay came a day after a six-week national reconciliation conference, backed by the government and the international community, closed in Somalia.

That conference, which some had seen has the best hope for peace in the Horn of Africa nation, closed with a raft of resolutions but little impact on the insurgency raging in Mogadishu. Islamists, and some other opposition figures, had boycotted the Mogadishu talks.

Mark Schroeder, Africa analyst with U.S.-based intelligence consultancy Stratfor, said when it did happen, the Eritrea conference was likely to be "even less constructive" than the Mogadishu one, and could inflame regional tensions.

"Participants such as Sheikh Sharif Ahmed will be expected to criticise the Ethiopian intervention in Somalia, very likely demanding Addis Ababa to withdraw its forces from that country or face renewed war," he told Reuters.

"The Ethiopian government under Prime Minister Meles Zenawi will perceive the statements and demands made by the Somali exiles ... participating in the Asmara conference as clear national security threats."

And Ethiopia will "not take kindly" to such statements coming from the soil of its regional foe, Eritrea, he added. Islamist-led fighters have been targeting the Somali government and its Ethiopian military allies since the New Year, when a brief, six-month Islamist rule of Mogadishu was ended.

The Rest @ Reuters Africa

US May Place Eritria On Terrorist State List

Eritrea rejects U.S. accusation of terrorism

By Jack Kimball

ASMARA, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Eritrea responded angrily on Saturday to a threat by U.S. Assistant Secretary Jendayi Frazer to place it on a list of state sponsors of terrorism.
Frazer said on Friday the United States was considering putting the Red Sea state on the terrorist list for allegedly funnelling weapons and aid to Somali Islamist insurgents battling the American and Ethiopian-backed interim government.

"We have tried our best to act with restraint with Eritrea," Frazer told reporters in Washington. "We cannot tolerate... their support for terror activity, particularly in Somalia."
Asmara said the accusation was baseless.

"We are very, very grateful to Ms. Jendayi Frazer (for) exposing her ill-will towards the Eritrean people," Information Minister Ali Abdu said icily.

A U.N. monitoring group last month accused Eritrea of sending large quantities of weapons to Islamists in Somalia -- a charge Asmara denies.

Violence has flared up in Somalia this month, with regular gun battles between allied Somali-Ethiopian troops and the Islamist fighters they ousted from Mogadishu in December with U.S. backing.

Hundreds of Somalis have been killed and hundreds of thousands have fled their homes in what some analysts say is a proxy war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

If put on the list, the country, one of the world's poorest, would join Iran, North Korea and Syria in suffering losses of U.S. aid, U.S. opposition to International Monetary Fund and World Bank loans and a ban on arms sales.

Frazer said Eritrea could avoid this if it stopped its activities in Somalia.

Underlining the sour relations between the former allies -- Eritrea was one of only four African countries to back the U.S.-led Iraq invasion -- Washington said this week it was shutting down an Eritrean consulate in Oakland, California.

Washington complained that Asmara kept inspecting its diplomatic pouches and refusing visas for U.S. diplomats.

Eritrea says Washington has shirked its duty to force Ethiopia, the top U.S. counter-terrorism ally in the region, to comply with an international ruling marking its shared border with Ethiopia following a 1998-2000 border war.

Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki is expected to make an official statement to journalists about relations with the United States late on Sunday.

The Rest @ Reuters

Eritrean Government Algegedly Flies al Qaeda to Somalia

Eritrea: Report of the Monitoring Group on Somalia
26 July 2007

By its letter of 27 June 2007 and pursuant to to resolution 751 (1992) concerning Somalia, and in accordance with paragraph 3 (i) of Security Council resolution 1724 (2006), the Monitoring Group on Somalia transmitted its report to UN Security Council that was distributed on 17 July 2007. Following is an excerpt from the report regarding Eritrea:

On Arms embargo violations by Eritrea

11. Based on information reflected both in past reports and in the current report, the Monitoring Group has observed a clear pattern of involvement by the Government of Eritrea in arms embargo violations. The Monitoring Group also concludes that the Government of Eritrea has made deliberate attempts to hide its activities and mislead the international community about its involvement.

12. When using aircraft to violate the arms embargo, the Government of Eritrea has variously applied different techniques, including:

• (a) creation of business frontcompanies for the sole purpose of hiding government activity;
• (b) use of different existing, or legitimate, airline companies;
• (c) creation and fabrication of false documentation, that is, filing of false flight plans indicating flights to third countries that never took place and
• the unauthorized use of registration numbers and call signs.

The case of the IL-76 operated by Eriko Enterprise, Asmara

13. In its previous report (see S/2006/913), the Monitoring Group provided detailed information concerning an IL-76 cargo plane transporting arms and fighters from Eritrea to Mogadishu (paras. 43-53). When presented with the foregoing information by the Monitoring Group, the Government of Eritrea denied that the flights had taken place.

14. During the current mandate, the Monitoring Group obtained a copy of the contract of sale (annex I) of the IL-76 aircraft to a company in Eritrea.

A person intimately familiar with the transaction confirmed the information contained in the previous report of the Group added that the company that had purchased the aircraft was a front for the Eritrean Government.

The person also indicated that a downpayment of US$ 200,000 had been paid by Eritrean diplomats based in a Gulf country to the seller of the aircraft.

The case of the Boeing 707 of Aero Geom Aviation Ltd, operated by Fab Air

15. During the current mandate, the Monitoring Group received information that in November and December 2006 a Boeing 707 aircraft, using registration number 9G-OAL, call signs FBA2515 and FBA2516, and owned by Aerogem Aviation Ltd, based in Ghana, departed from the airports of Asmara and Assab, Eritrea, destined for Somalia (see annex II).

Furthermore, reported to be on board the aircraft, and intended for delivery to the Islamic Courts Union (ICU), were a variety of arms.

Etritrea Daily Full Reoport