Viktor Bout and Murmar Gaddafi

Libya, Nov 6(ANI): Records found in killed Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi’s intelligence office in Tripoli show that the United Kingdom had warned his regime about a Russian arm’s dealer convicted in the United States last week.

According to the New York Daily News, the documents found by human rights activists indicate that Viktor Bout was trying to expand his operations in Libya while Gaddafi was still in power.

Bout was convicted in New York on Wednesday on federal charges that he conspired to kill Americans and US officials, deliver anti-aircraft missiles and aid terrorists.

The new records indicate that British officials in 2003 told then-Libyan intelligence chief Musa Kusa that Bout had a “considerable commercial presence in Libya” and wanted to expand his interests there. (ANI)

The Rest @ Truth Drive

Gaddafi Loyalsts Flee in Vast Numbers and May Destabilize Niger, CHAD, Sudan

• More than 150,000 people have already fled Libya into the northern part of Niger, which is mostly desert. 
• Security sources in Chad to Libya’s southeast cite arrivals of arms in the northern Tibesti mountains inhabited by Toubou rebels, and say the population of the Faya-Largeau, the main town of the region, has been swollen by Chadians fleeing Libya.
•  Darfur rebel leader Khalil Ibrahim has returned to neighbouring Sudan from his Libyan refuge, upsetting the delicate peace on the Chad-Sudan border.

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Long bedevilled by coups, rebellions and other home-grown troubles, Libya’s African neighbours have been landed with a new set of woes imported fresh from someone else’s war.

The arrival in Niger of 32 fleeing Muammar Gaddafi loyalists - including one of the ousted Libyan leader’s sons - in recent days is already a diplomatic headache for the government.

Yet that may just be a precursor to developments that would scare off foreign investment and further unsettle a region that is already a base for Al Qaeda-linked militants.

• Lacking the military might and technology to secure its northern borders, Niger this week warned that the Libyan conflict could turn into the next security and humanitarian crisis to afflict the drought-prone former French colony."We need your help and support on both scores,” Prime Minister Brigi Rafini appealed to local ambassadors during talks in the capital Niamey this week.
• More than 150,000 people have already fled Libya into the northern part of Niger, which is mostly desert. 
• Nigeriens and other sub-Saharan Africans have for years sought work in oil-rich Libya, where average income per head is 20 times Niger’s.
• Among them are gangs of local Tuareg nomads who were hired to fight on Gaddafi’s side and which in the past weeks have been spotted returning to their encampments in northern Niger.
• While the numbers so far are small, Niamey’s main worry is that a final capitulation of Gaddafi forces will drive thousands more of his Tuareg fighters back over the border to a country where they have for years led a string of rebellions.

“The Sahelo-Saharan strip is already insecure, with the activities of terrorists and drug traffickers. Now we seeing the return of young men with no source of employment but who know how to handle weapons,” said Ahmet Haidara, a parliamentarian in Niger’s north, said.

“We didn’t want this war but now we have to deal as best we can with the negative consequences,” said Haidara, who heads a Tuareg committee in contact with Libya’s new National Transitional Council rulers.

Aside from arms coming back with the Tuaregs, governments in the region believe trafficked weapons from Libya have fallen into the hands of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) allies behind a series of kidnappings of Westerners and other crime.

“Businesses operating in the region will face increased criminality and insecurity in the coming months as a result of the influx of arms and armed individuals or groups,” forecast Roddy Barclay, Africa analyst at London-based Control Risks.

That would not only make humanitarian work tougher, but be bad news for companies such as Areva, whose uranium mines in the northern town of Arlit supply France’s nuclear sector. The target of an AQIM hostage-taking a year ago, Areva began returning its expatriate workers to northern Niger in July under tightened security. Citing the increased measures, an Areva spokesman said the company was ready for all eventualities.

Neighbouring Mali, where AQIM is thought still to be holding a group of four French hostages from the Arlit kidnappings, faces the same set of concerns as Niger.

It too is seeing a recent respite from a rebellion launched on its soil by Tuaregs, whom one senior military source linked to new signs of a trade in weapons trafficked from Libya. Others fear an opportunity for AQIM.

“The influx of arms into the region cannot but strengthen AQIM,” Burkinabe parliamentarian Melegue Traore said at talks on regional security and other issues in Niamey this week.

“It’s a golden opportunity for them - I’m sure the West didn’t think it would be like this,” he added.
Security sources in Chad to Libya’s southeast cite arrivals of arms in the northern Tibesti mountains inhabited by Toubou rebels, and say the population of the Faya-Largeau, the main town of the region, has been swollen by Chadians fleeing Libya.

But their main concern is the return of Darfur rebel leader Khalil Ibrahim to neighbouring Sudan from his Libyan refuge, upsetting the delicate peace on the Chad-Sudan border.

“Chad, which has a non-aggression pact with Sudan, has put its troops on alert in case Sudanese rebels try to enter Chad,” said one of the security sources.

Events in Libya over coming days could well determine how big an impact is seen on stability in the fragile region.

For now, the hand-wringing in Niamey over what to do with the Gaddafi loyalists - including his son Saadi - highlights the challenges facing governments which had learned how to live with Gaddafi’s mix of irksome meddling and erratic generosity.

Niger has stressed the Libyans are under surveillance rather than detention, as they are not being sought for arrest and so are being granted refuge on humanitarian grounds.

That stance might appease the local politicians who have sampled Gaddafi’s generosity, but would be tested if Libya’s new leaders and the West push for the fugitives to be handed over - particularly given Niger’s reliance on foreign aid.

While many African states have only begrudgingly recognised Libya’s National Transitional Council, whose members are largely unknown south of the Sahara, some analysts argue they will fare better after Gaddafi’s fall.

“With the Gaddafi regime no longer playing regional governments off against each other, co-operation on issues such as border control, counter-narcotics and the creation of a regional task-force should face less disruption,” argued Control Risks’ Barclay. – Reuters

By Mark John/Niamey, Niger

The Rest @ Gulf Times

Gaddafi Fleeing to Niger?

(Reuters) - Scores of Libyan army vehicles have crossed the desert frontier into Niger in what may be a dramatic, secretly negotiated bid by Muammar Gaddafi to seek refuge in a friendly African state, military sources from France and Niger told Reuters on Tuesday.

The convoy of between 200 and 250 vehicles was given an escort by the army of Niger, an impoverished and landlocked former French colony to the south of Libya, and might, according to a French military source, be joined by Gaddafi en route for neighboring Burkina Faso, which has offered him asylum.

It was not clear where the 69-year-old former leader was. He has broadcast defiance since being forced into hiding two weeks ago, and has previously vowed to die fighting on Libyan soil.

Gaddafi's son Saif al-Islam, the heir apparent before the uprising which ended his father's 42 years of personal rule two weeks ago, also was considering joining the convoy, the French source added. France played a leading role in the war against Gaddafi and such a large Libyan military convoy could hardly have moved safely without the knowledge and agreement of NATO air forces.

Sources told Reuters that France may have brokered an arrangement between the new Libyan government and Gaddafi.

But a spokesperson for the French foreign ministry in Paris could not confirm the report of the convoy's arrival in the northern Niger desert city of Agadez nor any offer to Gaddafi, who with Saif al-Islam is wanted for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court at The Hague.

Officials in other Western governments and in Libya's new ruling council were not immediately available for comment.

The sources said the convoy, probably including officers from army units based in the south of Libya, may have looped through Algeria rather than crossing the Libyan-Niger frontier directly. It arrived late on Monday near the northern city of Agadez. Algeria last week took in Gaddafi's wife, daughter and two other sons, angering the rebels who ended his 42-year rule.

"HIGH SPIRITS"

NATO warplanes and reconnaissance aircraft have been scouring Libya's deserts for large convoys of vehicles that may be carrying the other Gaddafis, making it unlikely that it could have crossed the border without some form of deal being struck.

Libya's new rulers have said they want to try Gaddafi before, possibly, handing him over to the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has charged him with crimes against humanity.

Earlier on Monday, Gaddafi's fugitive spokesman Moussa Ibrahim said he was in good health and good spirits somewhere in Libya. "Muammar Gaddafi is in excellent health and in very, very high spirits," Ibrahim said in remarks broadcast on television.

"He is in a place that will not be reached by those fractious groups, and he is in Libya," Ibrahim told Arrai TV.

The head of Gaddafi's security brigades, Mansour Dhao, along with more than 10 other Libyans, crossed into Niger on Sunday, two Niger officials had said earlier on Monday.

The French military source said he had been told the commander of Libya's southern forces, General Ali Khana, may also be in Niger, not far from the Libyan border.

He said he had been told that Gaddafi and Saif al-Islam would join Khana and catch up with the convoy should they choose to accept Burkina Faso's offer of exile.

Burkina Faso, also once a French colony and a former recipient of large amounts of Libyan aid, offered Gaddafi exile about two weeks ago but has also recognised the rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) as Libya's government.

Burkinabe Foreign Minister Yipene Djibril Bassolet said that Gaddafi could go into exile in his country even though it is a signatory of the ICC treaty.

Gaddafi has said he is ready to fight to the death on Libyan soil, although there have been a number of reports that he might seek refuge in one of the African nations on whom he once lavished some of Libya's oil wealth.

His spokesman Ibrahim said: "We will prevail in this struggle until victory ... We are still strong, and we can turn the tables over against those traitors and NATO allies."

BESIEGED TOWN

Last week, a senior NTC military commander said he believed Gaddafi was in Bani Walid, 150 km south of Tripoli, along with Saif al-Islam. Libyan forces have massed outside the town -- that has refused to surrender -- building a field hospital in preparation for a possible last stand.

Some NTC officials said they had information that Saif al-Islam had fled Bani Walid on Saturday for the southern deserts that lead to the Niger and Algerian borders.

On-off talks involving tribal elders from Bani Walid and a fog of contradictory messages in recent days, have reflected the complexities of dismantling the remnants of Gaddafi's rule and building a new political system.

At a military checkpoint some 60 km (40 miles) north of the town on the road to the capital, Abdallah Kanshil, who is running talks for the interim government, told journalists a peaceful handover was coming soon. Nevertheless, a dozen vehicles carrying NTC fighters arrived at the checkpoint.

"The surrender of the city is imminent," he said on Monday. "It is a matter of avoiding civilian casualties. Some snipers have surrendered their weapons ... Our forces are ready."

Similar statements have been made for days, however. With communications cut, there was no word from inside Bani Walid.

But 20 km closer to the town, NTC forces built a field hospital and installed 10 volunteer doctors to prepare for the possibility that Gaddafi loyalists would not give up.

"The presence of pro-Gaddafi forces in Bani Walid is the main problem. This is their last fight," said Mohamed Bin Dalla, one of the doctors. "If Bani Walid is resolved peacefully then other remaining conflicts will be also be resolved peacefully."

Forces loyal to the National Transitional Council are also trying to squeeze Gaddafi loyalists out of his home town of Sirte, on the coast, and a swathe of territory in the desert.

(Reporting by Mohammed Abbas and Alex Dziadosz in Tripoli, Sherine El Madany in Ras Lanuff, Emma Farge in Benghazi, Marie-Louise Gumuchian, Barry Malone and Alastair Macdonald in Tunis, Sami Aboudi, Amena Bakr and Omar Fahmy in Cairo, Abdoulaye Massalatchi and Nathalie Prevost in Agadez and Richard Valdmanis in Dakar; Writing by Barry Malone; Editing by Alastair Macdonald and Michael Roddy)

The Toubou and Qaddafi

The Toubou (Old Tebu: "Rock People;"[1] also written Tibu, Tibbu, Tebu, Tubu, Tebou, Umbararo) are an ethnic group that live mainly in northern Chad, but also in Libya, Niger and Sudan.

The majority of Toubou live in the north of Chad around the Tibesti mountains (Old Tebu: "Rocky Mountains," whence the Toubou's own name.) Numbering roughly 350,000, they are mostly Muslim. Most Toubou are herders and nomads, though many are now semi-nomadic. Their society is clan-based, with each clan having certain oases, pastures and wells. They are divided in two closely-associated people, the Teda and the Daza.

Many of Chad's leaders have been Toubou, including Presidents Goukouni Oueddei, Hissène Habré and Idriss Déby.

The Toubou minority in Libya suffered persecution under the Gaddafi regime. In a report released by the UNHCR, the Society for Threatened Peoples (STP) reported "massive discrimination" against the Toubou minority, which resides in the southeastern corner of the country around the oasis town of Kufra.

• In December 2007, the Gaddafi government stripped Toubou Libyans of their citizenship, claiming that they were not Libyans, but rather Chadians.
• In addition, local authorities denied Toubou people access to education and healthcare.
• In response, an armed group called the Front for the Salvation of Toubou Libyans staged an uprising in November 2008 which lasted for five days and claimed 33 lives before being crushed by government security forces.
• Despite resistance and public condemnation, the Gaddafi regime continued its persecution of the Toubou minority in Libya.
• Beginning in November 2009, the government began a program of forced eviction and demolition of Toubou homes, rendering many Toubou homeless.
• Several dozen who protested the destruction were arrested, and families who refused to leave their homes were beaten.[2]

In the 2011 Libyan civil war, Toubou tribespeople in Libya sided with the rebel anti-Gaddafi forces and participated in the Southern Libyan Desert campaign against forces loyal to Muammar Gaddafi, briefly capturing the town of Al Qatrun[3] and claiming to capture Murzuk for the rebel movement a month later.[4]

The Rest @ Wikipedia

Reports of Gaddafi Mercenaries

I fought for Gathafi and I came back injured and without a penny," says Silimane Albaka, one of hundreds of Niger's Tuaregs recruited by the Libyan regime to fight the rebels.

Albaka, a veteran of the Tuareg rebellions in 1990 and 2009, battled the anti-regime forces for four months before fleeing back to Niger three weeks ago.

The 56-year-old father of seven returned to the northern city of Agadez with a chest wound from the battle for Misrata and scarcely able to feed his family.

He says he was contacted in April by Agaly Alambo, a key player in the second Tuareg revolt who settled in Tripoli.

• Thousands of Tuaregs took refuge in Libya following the rebellions which shook Mali and Niger over the past two decades.
• "There were 229 of us ex-fighters who left. They promised each of us an advance of 3.2 million CFA francs (about 5,000 euros), but I haven't seen a penny," said Albaka."They said that after the victory, Gathafi was going to shower us with gifts but all I saw was the hail of NATO aircraft fire," said the heavy weapons expert.

"Since the end of July, about 200 Tuareg mercenaries fled Libya for Agadez, about 500 are in Sirte, but I think all the others are dead," said Albaka.

A Tuareg source said that about 1,500 ex-rebels from Niger fought for Gathafi, most of whom were living in Libya after laying down arms in 2009.

The source said members of the strongman's regime came to Agadez in April with briefcases stuffed with cash and recruited "hundreds" of young people.

"We handed two million CFA francs (3,000 euros) to each recruit and took them on a short training session in the Libyan desert," said a Tuareg intermediary in Agadez who did not want to be named.

Almoudene Moha, another Tuareg ex-rebel who returned two weeks ago, said the intense NATO bombardments and heavy killings panicked the fighters.

"We organised an escape in our patrol vehicle," said the ex-mechanic "enrolled by force" by Gathafi loyalists.

Former Tuareg fighter Lamine Souleymane, 39, said he and three comrades ran more than 80 kilometres (50 miles) after deserting a Tripoli garrison.

"We pretended to hold prayers far away from the camp one time and we stole a vehicle which we had sold in Agadez," said Souleymane, who arrived back two days ago.

"Gathafi's soldiers came into our apartments and recruited 110 of us. They dangled about one million CFA francs (1,500 euros) in front of us, a house and Libyan nationality," said Abdoulaye Ahmadou, 36, who was unemployed when recruited by pro-Gathafi forces in April.

"It was hellish. One evening I hid in a supply truck. Once in town, I rejoined the immigrants who were returning home," he said, adding that many weapons were abandoned in the desert.

The "Mourtazak" (Arabic for mercenaries) are currently coming back unarmed but their return is causing concern in Niger where about 211,000 people have fled from the violence in Libya since February.

In Mali locals have warned that the Tuaregs' return with Libyan heavy weaponry might benefit Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which originated in Algeria and operates in several countries.

By Boureima Hama - AGADEZ (Niger)

The Rest @ Middle East Online

Bashir Saleh is Key to Gaddafi's Africa investments, possible location in Hiding

Bashir Saleh, President of LAAICO, LAICO and Gadaffi's cheif of staff is key to Gaddafi's

Investments and possiblly his post civil war location.

He was sanctioned this year by hte US office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC), identified by Treasury on March 15 as subject to sanctions for being owned or controlled by the Government of Libya.

Libya Africa Investment Company (LAICO) corporate records are the key for tracking the Gaddafi family's influence in Africa, including payments to other African Leaders.

Libya Africa Arab Investment Company (LAAICO) became Libya Africa Investment Company (LAICO) in 2007. We have been tracking its activity for a few years. Here is what we know about it's history.

During the Civil War, Qadaffi dispatched Bashir Saleh (Asharq Al-Awsat reported – citing unnamed Libyan sources in Tripoli and Benghazi, Western diplomatic sources in Cairo, Tripoli and Tunis, and vaguely described "Arab sources" –) that Gaddafi was suffering from an "incurable illness" and was attempting to negotiate a voluntary exile for himself and his family inSouth Africa under the protection of South African President Jacob Zuma.

The newspaper claimed Gaddafi's chief of staff, Bashir Saleh, had been dispatched to Djerba, Tunisia, and then to Bamako, Mali, to meet with British and French officials about the possibility of Gaddafi being allowed to leave Libya without facing arrest or trial.

. (Wikipedia)

Checking Bashir Saleh's communications over the last months may even give a clue as to where Gadaffi has gone, there are hotels and businesses all over Africa.

Time for Resupply for Al Qaeda in North Africa

The "Libya civil war has provided an opportunity to transfer weapons into the Sahel and AQIM."

- Mohammed Benhammou

-Shimron Issacahr

WASHINGTON, June 3, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Foreign policy experts at two forums this week examined the seismic changes of the 'Arab Spring' and focused on the importance of U.S. and European engagement with progressive leaders in the Middle East and North Africa for determining whether the current unrest will lead to reform, repression, or violent revolution.

Well-armed mercenaries recruited by Col. Qadhafi from Mali, the Polisario Front in Algeria, and elsewhere, and resurgent terrorists from al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), are stocking up on arms from Libya and are eager to exploit unrest in the region after Osama bin Laden's death.

At an Atlantic Council symposium, "Preventing the 'Arab Spring' from Becoming the 'Season of Discontent,'" policy experts discussed the uncertain forecast and how to promote positive change in this pivotal part of the world.

Analyst Geoffrey Porter said "every country in the Middle East and North Africa is different" and must be understood on its own terms. Dr. Anouar Boukhars of McDaniels College pointed to Morocco where "reform efforts have strengthened its legitimacy," citing King Mohammed VI's March 9 speech on constitutional reforms. Dr. J. Peter Pham, moderator of the panel, saidMorocco's reforms were "triggered by an inside reality and not imposed from the outside," and successful reform in other countries must be "internally driven."

Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies emphasized the importance of understanding that the 'Arab Spring' unrest is being driven by demand for economic as well as political change. Long-term solutions will require strategic choices in an uncertain climate.

Ambassador Edward Gabriel said the U.S. and Europe can play a key role in promoting positive change. He proposed a 3-part "long-term strategy with countries that have taken reform seriously," such as Morocco and Jordan, to build partnerships for growth and "strategic dialogue" to better understand change shaping the region.

Prof. Yonah Alexander of the International Center for Terrorism Studies warned that al-Qaeda and state-sponsored terrorism are "alive and well" in the Maghreb and Sahel, where terrorist incidents have risen 500% since 9/11 and are a global as well as regional threat. He also noted the concerns expressed by NATO officials about mercenaries in Libya.

At the Association for the Study of the Middle East & Africa (ASMEA) forum, "Terrorism in North Africa After bin Laden," investigative reporter Richard Miniter warned "AQIM is taking advantage of the 'Arab Spring' to expand and grow." ProfessorRichard Rene Laremont of SUNY said AQIM's "narrative was weakened because change came through mass civil demonstrations, not terrorism," but that it would be reinvigorated if reforms aren't realized.

Spanish journalist Jose Maria Gil Garre, noted that AQIM has succeeded in part because it can "depend on support of military elements of the Polisario," a separatist group based in Algeria, as local guides to "carry out its arms trafficking, kidnapping, and drug-trafficking in the Sahel."

Mohammed Benhammou, of the Moroccan Center for Strategic Studies, said that "600 members of the Polisario" answered the call for mercenaries in the Libyan conflict, because decades ago "Qadhafi was the father of the Polisario"—"now they are returning the favor." Benhammou warned the "Libya civil war has provided an opportunity to transfer weapons into the Sahel and AQIM."

He added that while "Morocco has been a model for the region" with its reforms, "Algeria has taken a wait and see attitude." Benhammou cited the need for "economic integration" in the region, which currently has one of the lowest cross-border trade rates in the world. Laremont added that Algeria needs to "realize it is in its interest to stop bickering with Morocco and cooperate" to address economic and security challenges facing the region.

The Rest @ The American Moroccan Center for Policy

African Union Calls for NATO To Stop Bombing Libya

African Presidents have asked allied forces to halt intensified bombings in Tripoli, called for an immediate ceasefire between government and rebel forces and decided Col. Muammar Gaddafi stays in power as negotiations get underway.

At the conclusion of an extra-ordinary summit in Addis Ababa on Thursday, the political executives, according to outgoing Foreign Minister Sam Kutesa, condemned NATO members for exceeding the mandate given by UN Security Council resolution 1973.

• "The resolution authorised protection of civilians but due to indiscriminate bombing, civilians are now dying," Mr Kutesa said. "Africa takes the position that the only way we can go forward [in Libya] is to have a ceasefire, commence dialogue and an inclusive transitional mechanism emphasising necessary reforms to meet aspirations of the Libyan people."

Mr Kutesa, who accompanied President Museveni to the AU meeting, said they tasked Africa's representatives on the UN Security Council - Gabon, South Africa and Nigeria - to push for an audit of violations of resolution 1973. Mr Museveni returned from the summit on Thursday.

The summit did not say what would happen if such inquiry succeeded - and it is uncertain if their disparate position would influence the West's stand.

The unanimous AU resolutions came a day after President Obama and his host, UK Prime Minister David Cameron, announced in London on Wednesday that Col. Gaddafi must leave power before any meaningful dialogue.

Yesterday, Mr Kutesa said African leaders consider that talks that exempt the Libyan leader would not be "substantive" since Col. Gaddafi is party to the fighting.

"In our view, the talks should be without pre-conditions. Otherwise there will not be progress," he said by telephone. "Also the attempt to try to assassinate the leader of a sovereign country violates international law."

In the past three weeks, NATO bombs have fallen on Col. Gaddafi's compound and a missile that slammed into a house he was in killed one of his sons and two grandchildren, raising suspicion the West is targeting to kill him.

Amid allegations government forces were heading to annihilate residents of Benghazi, a stranglehold of the Transitional National Council, France and Britain under initial US command invoked UN Security Council resolution 1973 and in March imposed a no-fly zone over Libya and began bombing.

The allied forces report dismantling the capability of much of Col. Gaddafi's forces although experts warn of a stalemate in Libya unless Western powers deploy ground troops.

Yesterday, the leaders, aiming to keep foreign militaries out of African conflicts, agreed to fast-track the formation of the delayed AU Standby Brigade as a home-grown solution and they highlighted the need for early warning systems.

UK's The Independent reported yesterday that Libya's Prime Minister, Al-Baghdadi al-Mahmoudi, has, in a letter incorporating recommendations of the five-member AU High-Level Ad hoc Committee, asked foreign governments to support its proposals for an immediate ceasefire to be monitored by both UN and AU; unconditional talks with the opposition; amnesty for both sides in the conflict and drafting of a new Constitution.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon attended the Addis deliberations that tackled the fragile security situation in Somalia, Ivory Coast and Sudan

AQIM Smuggling May Increase in the Short Terms

Gaddafi worked closely with his neighbors to keep Islamists at bay. Now that he has fallen into tough times, AQIM Smuggling Routs in North Africa will be more active for the short term. Expect more arms, cash, drugs and people traffic to and from Europe in this window of opportunity.

A side note:

The Moor Next Door has consistently show deep cultural insight about Magreb over the last few years, so as soon as North Africa Lit up with the"arab Spring"I have been following closer than ever. I agree with the assessment that follows.

-Shimron Issachar

Increased AQIM activity in southern Tunisia is likely to be one consequence of the Libyan crisis although it will probably become more manageable in the next few months as the authorities adjust to its patterns of activity in an area with a relatively small population, generally qualified border security personnel and a largely unsympathetic host population.

-The Moor Next Door

RE: AQIM in Tunisia

A reader asked for comment on AQIM and Tunisia. At the moment only limited comment is possible given the lack of extensive public information, the difficulty in assessing the validity of confessions of individuals captured and claiming to be members of AQIM and the complexity of the group’s presence in Tunisia and Libya in light of the Libyan uprising and the NFZ there. Below are very brief thoughts attempting to integrate these problems taken form notes from the last two weeks on the Algerian position on Libya and the arrests of AQIM suspects in Tunisia. Readers with more information/knowledge on the issue are encouraged to comment and correct.

Algeria, Libya, Tunisia and AQIM.

1. Algeria has strongly opposed the No Fly Zone in Libya decrying it publicly with Russia as well as other African and non-Allied states. This has been clear from the start; whether or to what extent Algiers has provided the Libyan government with material, financial or other support is less clear. The Libyan rebels have accused the Algerians of actively supported the Qadhafi regime by providing areal transport for mercenaries and providing money or even personnel. Most of these reports are unsubstantiated by conclusive evidence; the rebels claim to have captured Algerian mercenaries as well as Saharawis from the POLISARIO camps in Algeria. The Algerians cite fear of terrorists exploiting the implosion of the Libyan state as their main fear resulting from the intervention in Libya (they also fear the normalization of the “responsibility to protect” norm which they view as potentially destabilizing). Algerian officials have spoken (usually anonymously) to regional and international media on how AQIM might exploit Libya’s unrest to procure Libyan armaments and transport them to Mali or elsewhere. Algerian security sources have said AQIM has acquired weapons from Libyan stocks (Strelas, Duskas,) since the conflict began, and have warned that the fall of the Qadhafi regime would lead to regional chaos and allow AQIM to extend its reach farther north. Smuggling routes into Algeria via Tunisia and Libya have very probably become more active and lucrative in recent months (higher risk, less enforcement, etc.)
2. According to the Tunisian authorities men linked to AQIM arrested on 11 and 14 May carried suicide belts, grenades, AK-47s all of which came from Libya. Recent clashes between the Tunisian military and AQIM fighters at Rouhia (18 May) have lent credence to some of these fears, though the extent of AQIM’s presence in northern Libya since the beginning of the uprising and the NFZ remains unclear. AQIM previously had only a light presence in both Tunisia and Libya. Continued erosion of the Libyan state as the Libyan conflict drags on will likely lead to greater proliferation of conventional arms out of the country and into the hands of smugglers and groups like AQIM. Tunisians and Libyans have been less well represented in AQIM than other North Africans but recent arrests have included them distinctly, likely due to geography and their increased activity. It is yet determined whether these men are new recruits or “sleepers” or long active militants. As more information becomes available so will more clarity. Increased AQIM activity in southern Tunisia is likely to be one consequence of the Libyan crisis although it will probably become more manageable in the next few months as the authorities adjust to its patterns of activity in an area with a relatively small population, generally qualified border security personnel and a largely unsympathetic host population. More attacks or arrests will alarm Tunisians and increase western interest in the country’s security but Tunisia is unlikely to become a problem area as far as AQIM is concerned, particularly if the border with Libya is effectively policed. Refugee flows will complicate this and a study of the phases of migration into southern Tunisia from Libya and of the geographic origins of known Tunisian AQIM members (in comparison with recent incidents involving the group in Tunisia) would help improve analysis of AQIM’s presence in Libya

The Rest @ The Moor Next Door

Libyan Tribes in The Context of Civil War

The following analysis suggests that the current struggle in Libya breaks down along tradition tribal Lines and alliances.

This means that Gadaffi stepping down will not resolve the conflict. A separation into two countries, East and West, with an agreement for sharing interior oil revenue is a solution worth consideration.....

Shimron Issachar

*****************

One of the pillars of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi’s regime is his ability to control Libya’s tribes. Though he has consistently maintained ties with many smaller tribes affiliated with the other officers who formed the Revolutionary Command Council which carried out the 1969 coup that put Gadhafi in power, the foundation of his rule has been maintaining ties between his own tribe and the two largest tribes in the country. Because of the tribes’ importance to Gadhafi, a grasp of Libya’s tribal dynamics is important in understanding the current conflict in the country.

Libya has an estimated 140 tribes, only about 30 of which are viewed as having any real significance. They live in the three historical zones that make up Libya — regions which have only recently been grouped together as one political unit. These regions are Tripolitania, site of the capital city Tripoli on the Mediterranean coast in northwestern Libya; Cyrenaica, which touches the Mediterranean but also extends into the Sahara and serves as home to what was for a time the alternate capital of Benghazi; and Fezzan, the only region located entirely in the desert.

In an attempt to simplify an exceedingly confusing topic, we have divided Libya’s tribal groups into two overarching categories: the coastal tribes residing mostly in Tripolitania and Cyrenaica, and the interior tribes which mostly live in Fezzan. Not all of the “coastal” tribes live along the Mediterranean, but they do live within the rough vicinity of the Libyan core. The second category encompasses the tribes who reside solely in the desert interior.



Most people in Libya fall into the first category. The coastal strip is home to the typical Libyan — a person of mixed Arab-Berber descent (there are very few pure Berbers left, and though Bedouins in the interior take pride in their “pure” Arab blood, the amount of mixing over the years has made this very rare). There is a difference between the family trees of the Tripolitania tribes and those of the tribes in Cyrenaica dating back to the 11th century, when the Banu Hilal and Banu Salim Arabs settled in the respective regions. This division is felt to this day.

Cyrenaica is where the current uprising began in mid-February. This is a territory that Gadhafi — or any ruler of Tripolitania — has always struggled to control. In part, this is due to geography, as a vast stretch of desert and the Gulf of Sidra separate the regions. This division has reinforced their separate historical developments. Cyrenaica has long been oriented toward Egypt and the eastern Islamic world, with Tripolitania more oriented to the western Islamic world and the Maghreb. Cyrenaica was also the home region of modern Libya’s first ruler, King Idris I, who was overthrown by Gadhafi in 1969. (This is why so many towns in eastern Libya have begun flying the old flag of the Libyan monarchy in recent days.) Idris came from a line of rulers of the Sanussi order, a Sufi religious order founded in 1842 in Al Bayda, that practices a conservative and austere form of Islam. The Sanussiyah represented a political force in Cyrenaica that preceded the creation of the modern state of Libya, and whose reverberations continue to be felt to this day. It is no coincidence that this region is the home of Libyan jihadism, with groups like the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG). (The Gadhafi family has thus been calling the current uprising an elaborate Islamist plot, blaming nearly everything on the influence of al Qaeda, and accusing several people once imprisoned for their affiliations with LIFG of having established Islamic emirates in various eastern towns.)



A very small percentage of the Libyan population lives in the areas populated by the second category of tribes, including all of Fezzan and a significant portion of Cyrenaica. The desert simply does not allow for a large population to develop. Much of Libya’s oil and natural gas is within this region, however, and that is what makes an understanding of the tribal dynamics there important.

The Coastal Tribes
Tripolitania
The Gadhafi Tribe
This is the tribe of the Libyan leader, who was born in a desert town about 50 miles south of Sirte. There are six Gadhafi subtribes, whose members can be found in the two largest Libyan cities, Tripoli and Benghazi, but their main stronghold is in the territory stretching from Sirte to the Fezzan district of Sabha (where Gadhafi attended secondary school).

The Gadhafi tribe is not historically a force in Libya, in part because there simply are not that many members. The Gadhafi did not play a big role in the war against the Italian occupation, for example, nor did they have any influence during the monarchy, during which they mainly worked as herders. But the Gadhafi were allowed to join the armed forces and the police during this time, which is how the young Capt. Moammar Gadhafi found himself in the position to be able to lead the coup in 1969. (He promoted himself to colonel after the revolution.) As Gadhafi hails from the air force, this tribe continues to be very influential in this branch of the armed forces, which has been involved in some of the most severe crackdowns in eastern Libya and beyond.

Like any person in charge in a tribal society, Gadhafi has long favored members of his own tribe, especially in appointing leaders in the security forces, from regional military commanders to his personal bodyguard. But since the Gadhafi tribe is not especially large, the Libyan leader has been forced to form confederations with others. The foundation of the Gadhafi power structure for the past four decades has largely rested on an alliance with the two largest tribes in the country: the Warfallah and the Magariha, neither of which hails from eastern Libya.

When Gadhafi first took power, he was heavily influenced by the ideology of then-Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser. Arab nationalism was his guiding force. This later manifested in the Jamahiriya project that Gadhafi implemented in 1977. “Jamahiriya,” a word coined by Gadhafi which describes a new system of governance he defined as the “state of the masses,” was billed as a unique brand of Arab socialism. Ostensibly, it was to do away with antiquated notions of tribalism and focus on national identity. But in reality, these power relationships never went away.

The Warfallah Tribe
The Warfallah is the largest tribe in Libya. Its members can be found living in Tripoli and Benghazi but the tribe’s stronghold is centered on the Wadi Warfallah and Bani Walid and reaches into Sirte. With an estimated 1 million members, the Warfallah tribe represents roughly one-sixth of the country’s entire population. This is the dominant tribe in Tripolitania.

The Gadhafi and Warfallah have blood ties, and have been in alliance for much of Gadhafi’s 41 years in power. There have been times when all was not well between the Gadhafi and Warfallah tribes, however. In October 1993, after 55 military officers from the Warfallah tribe were implicated in a failed coup attempt, Gadhafi ordered a wave of arrests targeting the tribe. This sparked a backlash from among the Warfallah — most notably in Bani Walid, where there was an uprising in response. This event did not cause a permanent rupture in the alliance, but it would lead to the establishment of a law in March 1997 designed to prevent this kind of tribal unrest from happening again. The so-called “code of honor,” approved by the parliament in March 1997, meant that tribes and families could be collectively punished through the withdrawal of government services should members of the tribe get involved in opposition activities.

On Feb. 20, shortly after violence exploded in eastern Libya, a group known as the Warfallah Tribal Elders released a statement in which they condemned Gadhafi, his sons, and all members of his tribe. The Warfallah Tribal Elders speak on behalf of the Warfallah confederation, which consists of six subtribes: the Matarfa, Zakarwa, Lotyyin, Fogyyin, Faladna and Mrabtin.

Other Important Tribes in Tripolitania
The Bani Walid Tribe
The Bani Walid overlap geographically with the Warfallah, and also stretch northward toward the coastal town of Misurata. After African mercenaries contracted by Gadhafi were used to violently suppress demonstrations in Misurata, the Bani Walid defected en masse from their units, and are now part of the opposition.

The Tarhuna Tribe
The Tarhuna are another large Libyan tribe, especially in the capital, where they comprise an estimated one-third of the population. As just over 1 million people reside in Tripoli, that puts the total number of Tarhuna at a minimum of 350,000, with some estimates putting membership at two or three times that (though this is likely an exaggeration). There even used to be a district in Libya called Tarhuna district, located right next to Tripoli. The Tarhuna, who are heavily integrated into the Libyan military, have also joined in the anti-Gadhafi protests.

The Zentan Tribe
The Zentan are located around the towns of Nalut and Zentan, around 100 kilometers (km), or slightly more than 60 miles, southwest of Tripoli in the Nafoosa Mountain range, next to the Tunisian border. The Zentan are known as heavy participants in the Libyan army, but they, too, have shown signs of siding with the protesters.

There have been several reports of clashes between protesters and security forces in Zentan areas since Feb. 16, with images of people burning photos of Gadhafi and burning an armored personnel carrier belonging to the Libyan military, among other demonstrations.

Cyrenaica
The Zuwaya Tribe
The Zuwaya might not be the biggest tribe in Libya, but they are still a considerable force, if only because of the geography the tribe covers. Its members are spread out all across Cyrenaica, from the areas around the oil export facilities on the Gulf of Sidra to the interior regions around the actual oil deposits, as well as the Al Kufrah oasis.

The Zuwaya, along with the Warfallah, are one of the major tribes that have been the most vocal in their denunciations of Gadhafi since the crisis began. Zuwaya tribal leader Shaykh Faraj al-Zuway said in a Feb. 20 interview with Al Jazeera that the Zuwaya would halt oil exports if the army did not stop shooting at demonstrators. Faraj insisted that his words were to be taken as “a warning from the Zuwaya tribe,” and gave a 24-hour ultimatum for Gadhafi to order the military to cease in the use of force to suppress the revolt. There are no signs that the Zuwaya have carried out their threat, however.

The Zuwaya reportedly control the Sarir, Messla and Aquila oil fields. And though Libya’s oil production has been significantly affected by the overall environment of unrest in the country, this appears to be because the foreign companies and local technicians needed to operate the fields and export facilities have either evacuated or are no longer showing up for work. The Zuwaya, rather than attacking oil facilities, appear to be protecting them.

A WikiLeaks cable from 2008 stated that the Zuwaya are a heavily armed tribe, though these weapons are restricted to hunting rifles and other automatic rifles given to them by the Libyan government during the war with Chad over the Ouzou Strip in the 1980s. Their presence in the Toubou tribe’s traditional heartland, namely the oasis town of Jaloo, has caused tension between the two tribes, at times breaking out into clashes that the Libyan army is forced to suppress.

Other important tribes in Cyrenaica
The Misurata Tribe
The Misurata tribe is said by some to be the largest tribe in eastern Libya, though there are no concrete numbers to prove this. The tribe took its name from an area in northwestern Libya — the town called Misurata — where they used to live in great numbers before a wave of emigration after World War II. The town of Misurata is due west across the Gulf of Sidra from the Misurata stronghold in Cyrenaica. Today, the Misurata live mainly in the cities of Benghazi and Darnah.

The al-Awaqir Tribe
This tribe is most prevalent in Al Bayda, the city in which the Sanussi order was established and where the current uprising began in mid-February. When Gadhafi’s son Seif al-Islam made reference to those who had established the “Islamic Emirate of Al Bayda” in his Feb. 20 speech on Libyan state television, it is quite possible that he was referring to members of this tribe. The al-Awaqir are known for the prominent role they played in the war against Ottoman and Italian colonialism, and historically have played a prominent role in Libyan politics, both during the monarchy and during the Gadhafi era.

The Obeidat Tribe
The Obeidat are centered in the far northeastern military garrison town of Tobruk. Two top officials in the regime that come from this tribe have made very public defections in recent days: Maj. Gen. Suleiman Mahmud (whose full name is Suleiman Mahmud al-Obeidi), commander of the Tobruk military region, and Maj. Gen. Abdel Fattah Younis (whose full name also includes “al-Obeidi” at the end), the former interior minister. The latter announced his defection on Al Arabiya television Feb. 23. Mahmud, meanwhile, insisted after his defection that the tribes are not as fractious as Gadhafi claims, disputing the notion that Gadhafi’s removal would lead to chaos.

Fezzan
The Magariha
(The Magariha technically are not a coastal tribe, but since Gadhafi took power members of the tribe have come to play an integral role in the affairs of the Libyan core. Thus, we are grouping them into this category.)

The Magariha tribe is the second-largest in Libya. In addition to the Warfallah, it is the tribe that Gadhafi has consistently sought to keep in alliance throughout his time in power. The Magariha are the dominant tribe in Fezzan, though many Magariha live in Tripoli and other large cities on the coast, as is the case for almost all of the Arab-Berber tribes in Libya.

The most powerful member of the Magariha tribe is Col. Abdullah al-Sanussi, the head of the Jamahiriya Security Organization (JSO), which includes both the Internal Security Organization and the External Security Organization, an organization which employed Abdel Basset Ali al-Megrahi, better known as the Lockerbie bomber (Megrahi’s surname is a clear indication of the fact that he hails from the Magariha tribe). Al-Sanussi is married to a sister of Gadhafi’s second wife, Safia Farkash, and is famous for directing the 1996 Abu Salim prison massacre in which more than 100 Islamist prisoners were executed. This incident has been often cited by the eastern opposition as a core grievance that has led to the current uprising.

Al-Sanussi remains loyal to Gadhafi, and was explicitly accused by Bani Walid tribal leaders of directing the crackdown on Misurata. Likewise, protesters in the northwestern city of Zawiya on Feb. 24 told reporters that a Gadhafi aide named Abdullah Megrahi (whose tribe is revealed by his surname) had come to the town Feb. 23 to deliver a warning: End the resistance, or “there will be a massacre.” One day later, Libyan military units allegedly used anti-aircraft missiles and automatic weapons to attack a mosque in Zawiya that contained protesters.

There are prominent Magarihas, however, who are said to have joined forces with the opposition. The most famous of this group is Abdel Salam Jalloud, al-Sanussi’s cousin and a former classmate of Gadhafi’s at Sabha. He is also one of the 12 members of the Revolutionary Command Council that carried out the 1969 coup. He served as prime minister for five years in the 1970s, and was once regarded as the second most powerful man in Libya. But after the failed 1993 coup, Jalloud fell out of favor with Gadhafi due to suspicions of his involvement. He was officially pushed out of the Jamahiriya leadership in 1995.

Jalloud has retained influence with the Magariha tribe, however, and a source included him as part of a rumored plot by several current or former military officers to overthrow Gadhafi. A separate source also reporting on this rumored plot indicated that another Magariha long known to be a member of Gadhafi’s inner circle, Brig. Gen. Al-Mahdi al-Arabi Abdel Hafiz, had been chosen to lead the revolt. If there are indeed such plans, they have yet to be implemented.

The stance of the Magariha as a tribal unit is unclear. While Al Jazeera reported Feb. 21 that the entire Magariha tribe had renounced Gadhafi, there are clearly certain elements that are not of this persuasion, and the exact extent of the divide is unknown. Certainly there are elements of the Magariha that have joined the opposition camp, but it does not appear to have been a clean break just yet. Gadhafi’s fate could hinge on this tribe’s decision.

Interior Tribes
Fezzan
The Tuaregs
As Fezzan is largely unpopulated, the tribal dynamics that affect only Fezzan and do not play out in the coastal areas are largely unimportant in terms of determining the outcome of the current conflict in Libya. The Tuaregs, however, matter because of their ability to attack oil and natural gas infrastructure deep in the Libyan desert.



The Tuaregs are a nomadic people who roam around the Sahara and Sahel regions. A Berber people, the Tuaregs have a much different culture and history (not to mention language and appearance) from the Arabic peoples along Libya’s coastal regions, as well as the “pure” Arab Bedouins who live in other parts of the Libyan desert. They live in small groups mainly in the southwestern part of the country, concentrated primarily around the Ghadamis and Ghat oases.

The Tuaregs have joined the calls of the Warfallah, Zuwaya and other tribes in demanding that Gadhafi step down, clashing with security forces in the towns of Ghat and Ubary on Feb. 20. Tuaregs live near the Waha natural gas deposits on the Algerian border, as well as in the vicinity of the large Elephant oil field owned in part by the partially state-owned Italian oil firm ENI and Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corporation. Indeed, Tuaregs reportedly took over the headquarters of an oil company in Ubari on Feb. 22, though details are scarce on what exactly transpired.

Cyrenaica
The Toubou Tribe
Like the Tuaregs, the Toubou tribe is not a substantial factor in the conflict under way within the Libyan core. The Toubou are the most distinct tribe in Libya simply because of their skin color: they more closely resemble sub-Saharan Africans than their countrymen to the north. (Indeed, when reports first emerged about African mercenaries employed by Gadhafi to suppress the uprising, there was some confusion as to whether they might have been Toubou elements of the Libyan military mistaken for foreigners.) Toubou, like the Tuaregs, live in small groups in harsh desert conditions, albeit on the other side of the country, in southeastern Libya near the Tibesti Mountains along the Chadian border and in the vicinity of the Al Kufrah Oasis.

Also like the Tuaregs, the main threat posed by the Toubou is to oil infrastructure. A rebel group called the Toubou Front for the Salvation of Libya threatened in 2008 to sabotage the Sarir oil field, located almost 400 kilometers from Al Kufrah.

The Toubou have shown allegiance to Gadhafi in the past, but this was based on money more than anything else. Their loyalty to anyone as far away as Tripoli is not going to be permanent. Indeed, the Toubou tribe reportedly denounced Gadhafi as well on Feb. 20.

The Tribes in Context
Eastern Libya is no longer under the control of the government in Tripoli, which is relatively normal in the history of this part of North Africa. The tribes of the east — who view themselves as descendants of the Sanussi order and, before that, the Arab Banu Salim who populated this region — have for the moment re-created the old region of Cyrenaica, which has not formally existed since before the days of the monarchy.
Across the Gulf of Sidra, in the capital of Tripoli, Gadhafi is holding on for the moment, and the portion of the armed forces still loyal to him are trying to push back against protesters fighting for control of cities in Tripolitania. Having lost the support of the largest tribe, the Warfallah, as well as all of the tribes of the east, Gadhafi is now relying primarily on members of his own tribe, individuals who feel more loyalty to the regime than to their own tribesmen who have revolted, and an unknown segment of Libya’s second largest tribe, the Magariha.

Tuaregs and Toubou in the Libyan desert continue to pose a threat to the country’s oil and gas production, but have not shown any serious inclination that they seek to shut down production at this time. Their activities are not of any pressing concern to Gadhafi, who for the moment is entirely focused on staying in power. To do that, he must ensure that the tribes loyal to him continue to stay loyal and hope that the use of force will help him to overcome the widespread opposition to his rule. Source: Stratfor

The Rest @ The Security Guy

Gagdafi Accused of Supporting Sudan Rebels

March 28, 2011 (KHARTOUM) – The chairman of Transitional Darfur Regional Authority (TDRA) slammed the beleaguered Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and accused him of being the top supporter of the rebel groups who took arms since 2003 against the central government.

• West Darfur governor Al-Shertai Ga’far Abdel-Hakam who is also the TDRA head told a forum organized by the National Union of Sudanese youth that Gaddafi provided money and weaponry to rebels in the region as well as the East and the South.


• He provided no details to back his claims. However, he is the first high ranking Sudanese official to go on the record with these allegations that his peers made privately for years.

• A failed by attempt by the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in May 2008 to take over the capital was blamed on Libyan and French backing.




• Sudanese media quoted government sources at the time as saying that the financing of the operation was made through the Libyan Sahel-Saharan bank.

Libya is currently hosting JEM leader Ibrahim Khalil after being refused entry by the Chadian authorities last year where he was based. Sudan has sought without success to have Libya expel him. However, it was Gaddafi that pushed the African Union (AU) to grant Sudanese president Omer Hassan Al-Bashir immunity from arrest in the continent despite an arrest warrant against him issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for his alleged role in Darfur war crimes. Gaddafi is fighting an armed rebellion that initially started as a popular uprising in mid-February. The Libyan opposition managed to control most of the Eastern side of the country. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) this month authorized a No-Fly Zone over Libya and using all necessary means to protect civilians. Diplomats at the UN told Reuters last week that Sudan has quietly granted permission for coalition aircraft to use its airspace for enforcement of the No-Fly Zone. BASHIR HEADS TO DOHA The Sudanese president is heading on Tuesday to Qatar for talks with the Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani. The Arab Gulf state is hosting peace talks between Khartoum and Darfur rebels for several years but so far little progress was made. Diplomats tell Sudan tribune that Qatari officials are frustrated with what they see as Khartoum’s willingness to offer meaningful concessions for a final peace accord. Specifically the rebels have asked for unifying the three Darfur states as one and giving a Darfuri the post of Vice president something which was categorically rejected by the Sudanese government. A proposal by Khartoum to hold a referendum before May on Darfur’s administrative status, and how it should be governed came under fire from rebels who said it will make negotiations pointless. The Rest @ Sudan Tribune

Why Does Russian Support Gaddafi?

Why Does Russian Support Gaddafi?
Three Reasons.

• First, an historic defense connection. Gaddafi fashioned a hybrid economy which included many socialist features, which facilitated Libya's cold war strategy. The majority of Libyans military equipment is from the Russian defense industry,
• Second, Russia sees itself as a a counter-weight against NATO, which is working to defend the Libyan rebels.
• Third Gazprom The FSB -Laced multi-national Russian oil company Begin exploring an oil field asst swap with Libya last year.

The pensions of many KGB agents depend of Gazprom profits, and they will lose influence and oil field assets if Gaddafi leaves the scene.

-Shimron Issachar

The Impact of Libya's Credibility Loss in Africa

The fall of oppressive North African Regimes in Tunisia and Egypt came suddenly, and the impact on Africa will unfold over time; but the Loss of Gaddafi and Libya as a stabilizing force in Arab - African relations is currenlty being overlooked, and contingincy planners need to explore  possibilities that have not been considered before.

Though I am not a fan of  Gaddafi's regime, he deliberatly and successfully placed himself in a role as mediator and ambassador between the Arab World and the African World.

Gaddafi has invested signficant ammounts of money in Africa, and that will disappear. Using his  Libya African Arab Investement Company ( LAAICO ) Gaddfi brought Libyan Oil and outside  Arab investment money into a wide vareity of African businesses like food companies, hotel chains, real estate, banks, and even telecoms. As a Muslim owned business, LAAICO has it's sharia - compliant accountants and lawyers that made sure these inverstments funded the expansion of Islam in Africa. Though the principles of Taqiyya make it difficult to know for shure, it appears Qaddifi has been funding the building of Mosqs all over Africa for a generation, likely funded by Libya's Islamic Charity Tax that Deloitti calls the Jihad Tax. There is no dispute that their are many thousands employed in Sub-Saharan Africa busuinesses because of Gaddaffi's investments.

Gaddifi  has been an equal opportunity oppressor, oppressing and torturing hard-core Islamist groups groups in Libya, as well as nomadic islamist groups from Niger and Chad who have passed through Libya. The current civil war may have begun when an Al qaeda group, Libyan Islamic Fighting Group took over an arms depot. Now there is more opportunity for Al Qaeda affiliates, or other islamic groups to expand their operations in the Sahel region.


He has been a mediator between several North African countries on more than one occasion.
I will not argue with any one putting forth the concept the Gaddafi is evil. However, removing a two generation consistent force in North Africa will produce power shifts all over North Africa.

Here are some possibilities:

• Groups like AQIM, the remnants of  MNJ, and even  will try and move their individual agendas forward.
• Watch for North Sudan Malitias, the government funded perpetrators of  the Darfur genocides to try to move in this space and time while the west focuses on otherpaces in North Africa
• Watch for a weapon and logstics resupply for Congo rebel groups.
• Aglerian and Morocco Islamist groups with try to
• Southern Libya is mostly unoccopied desert, spareselt frequeneted by Tuaregs and Smugglers.
• Expect Drug and human Trafficers to look for new Libyan connections into Europe.
• Expect Arab Investors to look for new people to help them invest in Africa

After the last two months, No matter what happens in the civil war, Gaddafi will move back into his status as a pariah. His influence  has been damaged beyond repair, and this will change the face of North Africa.


Shimron Issachar

Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) Make Weapons Grab in Libya

Islamist groups took advantage of civil unrest and seized a weapons depot in Derna, on Friday, 18 February and weapons at at port in al-Baida. The Islamist Weapons Inventory in Libya: first count based on news reports.

• 70 military Vehicles
• 250 weapons
• Rpg
• 3 anti-aircraft guns

Study this 11 month old video for faces of current Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) members. This group, an Al Qaeda affiliate are allegedly instrumental in the Derna-al Baida Islamist power grab. The group, after al qaeda pattern, has Ideclared the "Islamic Emirate of Barqa.

The Son

Shimron



*****************************



Islamist gunmen have stormed a military arms depot and a nearby port in Libya and seized numerous weapons and army vehicles after killing four soldiers, a security official says.

The group also took several hostages, both soldiers and civilians, and is "threatening to execute them unless a siege by security forces is lifted" in Al-Baida, the official told AFP on Sunday, asking not to be named.

"This criminal gang assaulted an army weapons depot and seized 250 weapons, killed four soldiers and wounded 16 others" in the Wednesday operation in Derna, which lies east of Al-Baida and 1300km from Tripoli.

"Army Colonel Adnan al-Nwisri joined them and provided them with a rocket-propelled grenade launcher, three pieces of anti-aircraft artillery and 70 Kalashnikov" assault rifles, the source said.

On Friday, he said they attacked the port in Derna and seized an assortment of 70 military vehicles.

It was not immediately clear who the civilians were or where they had been taken hostage.
The group calls itself the "Islamic Emirate of Barqa" after the ancient name of a region of northwest Libya, and the official said its leadership is made up of former al-Qaeda fighters previously released from jail.

The official said the same group was responsible for the hanging of two policemen in Al-Baida on Friday that was reported in Oea newspaper.

Justice Minister Mustafa Abdeljalil started negotiations late on Saturday for the hostage-takers to release their captives, he said. "But we will not negotiate over Libya's integrity under any circumstances."

According to Human Rights Watch, at least 23 people have died in Al-Baida since Tuesday in clashes between security forces and protesters against the four-decade rule of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi.

Over the past five years, Libya has freed around 850 prisoners from different Islamist groups, 360 of them since March.

Among those released were jihadists with ties to al-Qaeda's Iraqi and North African franchises, including senior members of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) such as its chief Abdelhakim Belhaj.

In November 2007 al-Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri allegedly said the LIFG had joined his network, in an unverified audio recording posted online.

But the Gaddafi Foundation headed by Seif al-Islam, son of Gaddafi, said in 2008 that Islamists held in Libyan prisons and previously linked to al-Qaeda had renounced their ties.

LIFG was formed in the early 1990s in Afghanistan by Libyan militants who took up arms against Soviet occupation forces. Its stated aim is to overthrow Gaddafi's regime and establish an Islamic state.

The group was led from central Asia by Abu Laith al-Libi, a top lieutenant of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, until his killing in February 2008 in a US missile attack in Pakistan.

In March 2006 Libya released 84 jailed members of the country's banned Muslim Brotherhood movement held since the late 1990s.

Fifty-five of those freed returned to Benghazi, Libya's second largest city and reputed opposition stronghold that has been the scene of some of the deadliest anti-regime clashes over the past week.

In 1998 Libya arrested 152 Brotherhood members. In 2002 two members were sentenced to death, 73 to life in prison and 66 were acquitted, while the others were handed 10-year jail terms.

Those condemned, mainly students and academics, were accused of supporting or belonging to Al-Jamaa al-Islamiya al-Libiya, an Islamist group whose beliefs mirror those of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.

The offenders are generally charged with violating Libya's Law 71, which bans political activity opposed to the principles of the 1969 revolution in which Gaddafi took power.

Evicting Libya's monarchy, Gadde afi has since ruled the country with an iron fist, imposing an ideology inspired by socialism and Islam that he presents as the ultimate evolution of democracy and is enshrined in his "Green Book".

The Rest @ AFP

Complex Diamond and Gun Smuggling During Liberian Civil War

LIBERIA’S TRUTH AND RECONCILIATION COMMISSION has heard allegations that a retired agent of the CIA was instrumental in facilitating a vast diamonds-for-arms smuggling operation on behalf of Liberian warlord Charles Taylor.

Taylor, who headed the National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL), became the country’s President in 1997. He is currently held by the United Nations in The Hague, pending trial for crimes against humanity.

The allegations were made at the recent Economic Crimes Hearing of Liberia’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission in Monrovia by Imants Liepiņš, an ivestigator with the Public Investigation Bureau, a business intelligence firm based in Riga, Latvia.

Mr. Liepiņš, who is a recent nominee for UNESCO’s 2009 World Press Freedom Prize, presented his findings during an official hearing titled “Economic Crimes, Corruption and the Conflict in Liberia: Policy Options for an Emerging Democracy and Sustainable Peace”.

AN INTRICATE NETWORK

Liberia’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission, which aims to unearth human rights violations and the exploitation of the country’s natural or public resources to perpetuate war, heard last Thursday that Roger D’Onofrio
Ruggiero, an Italian-American 40-year veteran of the CIA, worked with Charles Taylor and others to channel diamonds into Europe through a number of front-companies.

According to the allegations, D’Onofrio, who at the time lived outside Naples, Italy, helped organize the smuggling operation with Ibrahim Bah.

Bah is a Senegalese with Libyan connections, who at that time was a member of Liberia’s Revolutionary United Front, a guerilla group that fought unsuccessfully against the government throughout the 1990s. According to Douglas Farah’s book Blood from Stones (Broadway Books, 2004), Bah was connected with D’Onofrio in the 1970s, when the former was funded by the CIA to join the Mujahedeen in Afghanistan in the war against the Soviet Red Army.

In the early 1990s, Bah, who by then had established al-Qaeda connections, became Charles Taylor’s “Minister for Mineral Resources”, a post that enabled him to handle the majority of NPFL’s diamonds-for-arms deals.

SLOVENIANS, AMERICANS AND OTHERS

Bah is alleged to have also drawn on his Libyan connections to involve in the smuggling operation representatives of Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi.

The smuggling was conducted through a front-company, International Business Consultant Ltd, and Kintex, a Bulgarian import-export company with offices in Switzerland.

• Kintex “supplied weapons and bullets to [International Business Consultant Ltd] and sold diamonds in return, camouflaged as oranges and olives”.
• This was allegedly done with the help of a Swiss lawyer, Rudolf Meroni.
  

During last Thursday’s presentation in Monrovia, Imants Liepiņš recounted D’Onofrio’s 1995 testimony before Italian prosecutors, in which the former CIA agent admitted he owned shares in International Business Consultant Ltd, as did Charles Taylor, Ibrahim Bah, and others.

Interestingly, Liepiņš revealed that among the shareholders was Nill Taylor (no relation to Charles Taylor), an American who claimed to be “a representative of the US Government” (though not apparently connected with the US Embassy in Monrovia, which in the 1990s was headed by a series of interim chargés d’affaires).

Nill Taylor, who met with D’Onofrio in Liberia on at least one occasion, was an associate of Nicolas Oman, a notorious Slovenian weapons smuggler who was rewarded for his services to Charles Taylor by being named Liberia’s honorary consul in Slovenia.

Oman’s son, who lives in Australia, was appointed Liberia’s honorary consul in the county until 2006, when his family’s weapons smuggling ventures became the subject of a diplomatic row between Slovenia and Australia.

A RENEGADE AGENT

Mr. Liepiņš’ allegations have made headlines throughout Liberia, but have yet to appear in any mainstream Western media outlet.

This is extremely disappointing in light of the fact that these allegations about D’Onofrio are not new.

• In 1995, the former CIA agent was arrested by Italian police officers investigating a money laundering and arms smuggling operation into the former Yugoslavia.
• Italian authorities charged D’Onofrio, whom the local press dubbed “Specter’, “after James Bond’s arch-enemy”, with using CIA “contacts [he] made during the 40 years he worked for the US intelligence agency to organize illegal financial deals and arms shipments”.
• These reportedly included a foiled attempt to supply Slovenian arms smugglers with osmium, a chemical element used to manufacture nuclear detonators.
  

The Rest @ Intelnews

* Dr. Joseph Fitsanakis has been writing and teaching on the politics of intelligence for over ten years. His areas of academic expertise include the institutional analysis of the intelligence community; the interception of communications; and the history of intelligence with particular reference to international espionage during the Cold War. He is co-founder and Senior Editor of intelNews.org.

Condaleez Rice to Vsist Gaddafi, Libya

By Viola Gienger

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) — Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice plans to travel to North Africa tomorrow to welcome an unlikely ally to the U.S. fight against terrorism: Libya’s Colonel Muammar Qaddafi.

For most of Qaddafi’s 39 years in power, the U.S. listed Libya as a state sponsor of terrorism, including the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, and banned American companies from doing business there.

• Now the country is sharing intelligence with the U.S. about the North African activities of al-Qaeda, the Islamic militants behind the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.
• And U.S. energy, telecommunications and construction companies are vying for billions of dollars in contracts tied to expanded oil production in Libya, which has 3.4 percent of the world’s proven reserves.
• Qaddafi’s help on intelligence matters has been “exemplary,” said Assistant Secretary of State David Welch, whose negotiations with Libya paved the way for Rice’s visit. “One of the benefits of working with Libya in this area over the last several years is that we’ve been able to expand this kind of cooperation,” he added in an interview.
  
  
• The U.S. is negotiating a military cooperation accord with Libya and says the country is helping stem the flow of foreign fighters into Iraq.
• Al-Qaeda consolidated Islamist fighters in Algeria and Libya in the past two years under the Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb group, or AQIM.
• In November, al-Qaeda deputy chief Ayman al-Zawahiri urged his fighters to topple Qaddafi, excoriating his decisions to renounce terrorism and shun nuclear and chemical weapons.
  
• Libyans may want to buy aircraft and related equipment to help patrol their borders.
  

As U.S. officials court Qaddafi, they’ve said little about the regime’s suppression of its own people beyond annual government reports citing its “authoritarian” rule and “poor” record on human rights.

Libya holds political prisoners, torture is widespread and the government allows almost no free press or assembly, said Fred Abrahams, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch in New York.

The Rest @ Aftermath News