Kenya and Somali TFG Forces Raid al Shabaab in Southern Somalia

Kenyan troops have crossed into Somalia and have driven out al-Shabab fighters from two bases near the border in a joint operation with Somali soldiers, according to a Somali military commander.

• Kenya has said it will hunt the fighters they accuse of being behind several recent kidnappings of foreigners. 
• Abdi Yusuf, a senior Somali military commander, said on Sunday that fighter jets struck two al-Shabab bases in southern Somalia, but could not confirm if the aircraft belonged to Kenya. "There have been air strikes in al-Shabab bases near Afmadow late yesterday and today. 
• We are heading towards Afmadow now. Al-Shabab have already vacated the town," he said. 
• Alfred Mutua, the Kenyan government spokesman, said that its troops had entered southern Somalia to fight the al-Shabab, who it says are responsible for attacks on its territory. 
• In response, al-Shabab called on Somalis to rally and attack the Kenyan troops. "Kenya violated the territorial rights of Somalia by entering our holy land, but I assure you that they will return disappointed, God willing," 
• Sheikh Hassan Turki, a senior al-Shabab leader, said. "Mujahideen fighters will force them to test the pain of the bullets." Turki called on Somalis to stand united against "this blood-thirsty enemy that has crossed into our territories and the apostate Somali militants helping them". 

Several witnesses reported heavy troop movement in Kenya's border regions, with lorries full of soldiers heading towards the frontier. The assault came a day after George Saitoti, Kenya's interior security minister, branded al-Shabab "the enemy" and pledged to attack them "wherever they will be".

• In response to Kenya's deployment of forces in Somalia, Shabaab spokesman Ali Mohamud Rage warned that Shabaab would retaliate with suicide bombings in Kenya, saying "[R]emember what happened in Uganda's capital," a reference to the 2010 Shabaab suicide attacks in Kampala that killed 76 people, according to The Associated Press. 
• Kenya's decision to send troops into Somalia is interesting, as the Kenyan military has hitherto been cautious and largely stayed out of the fight in Somalia, with the exception of some border clashes with Shabaab. 
• If Kenyan forces are in Qooqaani, and are moving toward Afmadow, then they've moved about 40-50 miles inside Somali territory. 

It remains to be seen if the Kenyans are committed to taking the fight to the port city of Kismayo, Shabaab's stronghold in the south.

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Part of TGS and Part of ARS Form ANOTHER Agreement

The parties to the peace talks aimed at ending the conflict in Somalia have reached a power-sharing deal in Djibouti that doubles the size of parliament, observers said. However, analysts feared the deal was unworkable and seems to have widened the split within the TFG.


Representatives of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and a faction of the Eritrea-based Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS), led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, began their latest talks on 22 November.

"It was not perfect, but it was a compromise deal to get a unity government," Mohamed Abdi Yusuf, a member of the ARS central committee and one of the negotiators, told IRIN on 26 November. "It is a bitter pill but we have to swallow it for the good of the country and the people."

Other sources, however, said interim President Abdullahi Yusuf was not involved and opposed the deal.

"The president was not in any way involved in this agreement, therefore nothing agreed there is binding on him," Abdirashid Mohamed Iro, an MP and close adviser to Yusuf, said.

• The agreement provides for the enlargement of parliament to 550 members from the current 275.
• Two hundred seats will go to the ARS and 75 to civil society, including women, the business community and the diaspora.
• The talks also extended the life of the transitional period for two years, from August 2009.
  

Iro described the deal as unworkable. "A 550-member parliament for Somalia is simply unrealistic and unsustainable," he said. "We don't even have space big enough to hold meetings."

An analyst said it would be difficult to implement.

"Increasing the size of the parliament may just complicate matters and will make reaching decisions extremely difficult," Timothy Othieno, a regional analyst at the London-based Overseas Development Institute (ODI), said.

The arrangement between the TFG and one faction was bound to come into conflict with the Asmara faction and Al-Shabab "which, unfortunately, once again, spells doom for the people of Somalia".

He added: "I am afraid this arrangement may fail."

Neither the armed wing of the Islamic Courts, the Al-Shabab group, nor the Asmara faction of the ARS, led by Sheikh Hassan Dahir, was involved in the Djibouti talks.

A civil society activist told IRIN the agreement was a compromise document "and will not please everybody", including those who signed it.

"The TFG is divided and so is the Alliance and that will make their work even more difficult," he said. "The main challenge now is not only to sell the agreement to the Somali people and the international community but to their own erstwhile allies."

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