Al Shabaab Strength in December 2010

From Bill Roggio...

I missed this report from Sunatimes when it came out in November. According to Sunatimes, Shabaab officials claim to have more than 14,000 fighters under their command throughout Somalia. Among those are nearly 2,000 "Al-Qaeda foreign fighters." The report has specific numbers, and breaks down the composition of Shabaab by region and clan affiliation:
Quoting some of Al-Shabaab militant officials, the report says the biggest number of Al-Shabaab militias is from Digil and Mirifle clans of Rahanwein tribe totaling 4,230 fighters as indicated in the list of the clans and their figure. Rahanwein is the main dominant tribe in southwest Somalia.

• 3,106 soldiers of Al-Shabaab are from Darod tribe mainly from Ogaden and Marehan clans who are inhabitants in southern Somalia.
• 2,401 are from Hawiye tribe mostly from Duduble and Murursade clans in the country's central and southern regions.
• 1,982 from Al-Qaeda foreign fighters, among of them are highly skilled military experts with war strategy and information intelligence.
• 1,702 are largely from Isaaq clan of Somalia's northern Dir tribe as 753 fighters of that number belonging especially to the sub-clan of Al-Shabaab's leader Ahmed Godane.
• 1,005 are from the minority clans in Somalia those who are students and farmers recruited from the southern parts of the country.

Read more @ The Long War Journal

Robow and Godane Divided

Opinion by Adan Diini appears propose the idea of a Coup attemp underway by Robow, trying to take over al Shabaab, or creae a breakaway group.....

-Shimron Issachar
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By : Adan Diini

Different sources have confirmed that the most powerful rebel Islamist movement in Somalia (alshabaab) are in the brink of splitting into two rival groups, after sharp dispute broke out between two of their senior leaders who apparently had disputes over power sharing arrangements and the absence of clear Political Strategy within the movement, also disputes concerning allegations of cronyism and misuse of funds have been subsequently reported to be one of the crucial elements of this developing dispute.

According to government security sources, the dispute between the two leaders broke out after mysterious disappearance of senior Al’shabaab military leader believed to be foreigner; sources also suggested that he was killed at the hands of Amniyaat elements of Al’shabaab who took their orders directly from Godane.

According to valuable information conveyed by sources close to the islamists, the recent difference between Sheikh Mukhtar Abu Zubair (.a.k.a Ahmed Godane) and his deputy Sheikh Muktar Roobw Abu Mansur have reached breaking point, which could cause severe implications in cities controlled by the movement such as Kismayo and Baldwine and more importantly the capital Mogadishu.a according to reports Hiiraan (central Somalia) and Lower Juba (South) doubts and tensions are rising among al-shabaab leaders and fighters.

• Gunmen loyal to Shiekh Roobow are reportedly begun to withdraw secretly heading for the areas inhabited by Shiekh Robow’s clan (Rahanwein a.k.a Digil and Mirifle) in Bay & Bakool regions.
• This Step leaves Godne fighters in a dangerous critical condition due to the fact that they haven’t any remaining strongholds other than the Hawiye-clan dominated areas in south and central Somalia and Mogadishu it self.
• The lack of unity among Al'shabaab elements led to the recent Al'shabaaab's remarkable turn-back which can be obviously seen during the ongoing confrontations against the TFG and AMISOM troops in Mogadishu.
• Sources within the ismalists have confirmed that it appears that Al'shabaab fighters are suffering from disorder and uncertainty in thier ranks, thus, they are on defensive position contrary to their known habit in the fighting.

The leaders of Al'shabaab Differed several times since the establishment of the group in late 2007, Close-souces within the islamists are saying that the current dispute revolves around power and alleged systematic negligence by Godane of wounded Ah'shabaab fighters who said to be numbered in hundreds in Mogadishu alone.

This came as a final blow to the already tense relations between them. This controversy threatens to start the end of Al'shabaab Al Mujahedeen Movement as a single united movement.

It is difficult though to end the current dispute without the two leaders weakening each other, which in turn would weaken the unity inside this violent radical movement which refuses to engage in any negotiations with the fragile Somali government.

Ismamists sources whom I spoke with also said that the difference between the two men intensified when unification agreement between the two biggest insurgency groups was canceled unilaterally by Godane and his advisors(mostly forign fighters).

• This unification and standardization agreement was primarily concluded by the leaders of Hizbul-Islaam with Shiekh Roobow representing Al'shabaab's interests in this agreement.
• Under the Canceled agreement new Islamic Party with new name will emerge and Al'shabaab would take the newly formed party presidency position among other important military and financial positions.
• After the unilateral cancellation of the agreement, Sheikh Robow was angered and he was reported once saying that Godane is intended to undermine his influence and popularity among Al'shabaab fighters.

Moreover, new cracks appeared between the two men after Al'shabaab's failure to finish the weak TFG government during the holy month of Ramadan’s fighting (named by al'shabaab leader "The end of the aggressors"), Al'shabaab sent hundreds of fighters to the capital to overthrow the Somali government and force the African Union forces to leave, However, they failed miserably in that.

Powerful sources also confirm that most of the injured or died fighters in this offensive were of Digil & Mirifle Clan (a.k.a Rahanwein), which represents more than 60-70 percent of Al'shabaab's overall combat power, although they do not receive adequate attention.

The Clan's elders asked Sheikh Roobow to explain why their tribes men are in the front lines while most of the senior positions are dominated by people from north of Somalia(Somaliland), and why proper medial treatment is not given to their tribes men when they sustain injuries.

Observers had expected for some time that disagreement between the two men is immanent because of the sharp differences in their personalties, Shiekh Roobow is reportedly liked and admired by most of Al'shabaab fighters, While in contraray Godane is barely known by his fighters as he rarely unveils his face.

And he was never seen engaged in fighting activities along side his fighters. Shiekh Roobow however is well known for his violent adventures in dangerous front lines;

• also he publically enjoys finishing-off wounded government soldiers using small sharp knife he always carries around his whist,
• recently he has sustained minor injuries while engaged in bloody fighting against TFG and AMISOM.

Also in a relevant development, Hizbul-Islaam commander in Mogadishu said that he noticed rising numbers of Al'shabaab fighters trying to leave al'shabaab and asking to join Hizbul-Islaam but their request was rejected by Hizbul-Islaam leaders due to the sophisticated relation ship between the two insurgency groups,

also he suggested that Shiekh roobow's next move could be establishing new alliance with Hawiye-clan to create new Islamist movement which will be totally independent from Al'shabaab influence, also alternatively its very likely that if this disputes are not promptly contained it could lead to golden opportunity for Hizbul Islaam leaders who can use this opportunity to widen their organization at A’shabaab expense.

There are already rapidly spreading rumers in Mogadishu that Sheikh Robow and Shiekh Aweis of Hizbul’islaam have already met and discussed possible unity between their factions to form a large dominant Islamist movement in Somalia.

• It is believed though that the corner stone of this new strategy will be Al’shabaab members who hail from the influential Hawiye Clan.
• If they accept to be fully allied with Shiekh Robow and withdraw their recognition for Godane as the unquestionable leader of al'shabaab, this will accelerate the end of political and military influence of Godane among Al'shabaab fighters.

Shiekh Mukhtar Robow Abu Mansoor is one of the top leaders of Al’shabaab, who had received military training in Al-Qaida and Taliban Camps in the early nineties. he is wanted by the C.I.A and the Ethiopian security for allegedly being involved in various terrorism activities.

He was dismissed from his post as Al’shabaab’s spokes man and was appointed as Sheikh Ahmed Godane’s Deputy although he remained practically inactive. By : Adan Diini adan.diini@gmail.com

Hawiye elders Spokesman Ahmed Diriye Ali

Hawiye Branch of Shabaab Spilts with Hassan Yakub on Sharia for Somalia

Sheik Hassan Ya’kub

“We will not recognize the outcome of apostate cabinet ministers and apostate parliamentarians,” said Terrorist Sheik Hassan Ya’kub the secretary information of al-Shabab. “We want an Islamic government that does not have the support of the United Nations and Ethiopia,” he added.

MOGADISHU (Mareeg)--Al-Shabaab Islamist Terrorist group has described Wednesday the decision of the Somali talaban Cabinet to endorse the Islamic Law as something “ridiculous” and said they would not welcome.

Several armed groups have said they will stop fighting the government if sharia was implemented, but al-Shabab rejected the plan.

“We will not recognize the outcome of apostate cabinet ministers and apostate parliamentarians,” said Terrorist Sheik Hassan Ya’kub the secretary information of al-Shabab. “We want an Islamic government that does not have the support of the United Nations and Ethiopia,” he added.

He said that they will not accept a government that Burundian and Ugandan troops are keeping guard,

but the spokesman of Hizbul Islam (Islamic party) aka.. hawiye.-(Habar-gidir ) wing of shabaab, an alliance of four groups that control parts of the capital and have influence in the port town of Kismayo Terrorist Muse Abdi Aralle said they will wait from the government to fulfill its commitment.

“We were fighting for the sharia to be implemented, so we are waiting from them to carry out their promise,” said Muse Aralle.

........Al Shabab, the Islamist militant group active in Somalia, is tied closely to al Qaeda through its senior leaders, many of whom trained with and carried out operations in the name of al Qaeda prime. Its leaders’ training and experience lend al Shabab strength.....

The Rest @ the Terror Free Somalia Foundation

Somalia: Hawiye Council Spokesman 'Threatened' By Al Shabaab

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Garowe Online (Garowe)

5 October 2008Posted to the web 6 October 2008

The spokesman for a self-appointed Somali clan union - the Hawiye Tradition and Unity Council - told reporters Sunday that council members have been threatened by local insurgents.
Ahmed Dirie, spokesman for the Hawiye Council, said al Shabaab fighters had issued an order calling for the death of council members.

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"I don't know what this group [al Shabaab] who threaten us want, but they are not ones working for the religion or the interests of the Somali people," Dirie said.

He accused al Shabaab spokesman Muktar Robow "Abu Mansur" of being "an obstacle" to the delivery of humanitarian aid in Mogadishu and the central regions.
Dirie said that, while airplanes and foreigners land safely at airports in Bay and Bakool regions,
"Abu Mansur has refused for airports in Mogadishu and the central regions to operate and it appears to me there are hidden agendas."

Mogadishu and the central regions are predominately home to Hawiye clansmen, while Abu Mansur is a member of the Digil and Mirifle clans that traditionally inhabit Bay and Bakool regions, including the town of Baidoa.

Al Shabaab insurgents have targeted Mogadishu's airport with mortars at least four times since September 16, when the guerrilla group issued a threat to shoot down airplanes using the airport.

Airport-related violence has killed upwards of 80 people and helped drive a deeper wedge among the insurgents, who were already reeling from the armed resistance's split into pro-peace and pro-war camps. [ READ: Islamic Courts, al Shabaab 'on verge of war']

Hawiye Council members have opposed the airport attacks, along with airline companies, civil society groups and the Islamic Courts.

"If we are killed, we were already waiting for death. But those who pointed us out and use small children who don't know anything [to kills us] will follow us and will be killed," Dirie said defiantly.

Recently, al Shabaab member Fu'ad Shangole declared inside Mogadishu's Bakara Market that Hawiye Council members will be shot after accusing them of "working to divide up the muqawama," a reference to the armed resistance.

It is a change of fortune for Mr. Ahmed Dirie, who was arrested in November 2007 by the Somali government for allegedly supporting the insurgents. He spent more than two months in jail.

In recent weeks, Dirie and Hawiye Council Chairman Mohamed Hassan Haad led a council delegation that visited towns between Galkayo and Beletwein.

Local sources reported that the council elders pushed for the establishment of a regional government for Hawiye-inhabited areas in the central regions during their road trip, but received "mixed reaction" from region to region.

According to insiders, the idea for a Hawiye-based regional administration originated after the Djibouti Agreement between the Somali government and an Islamist-led opposition alliance.

A former government official in Puntland, who is an insightful analyst of southern politics, tells Garowe Online that "a process of Hawiyism" is going on in Mogadishu and the central regions."The intention is to drive out al Shabaab from Hawiye-dominated areas...al Shabaab's major bases are in the Jubba regions, the Shabelle regions and also in Bay and Bakool," said our source, who did not want to be named for security-related reasons.

He described al Shabaab fighters as "without clan," while noting that the Islamic Courts factions were originally conceived in the 1990s as clan-based courts protecting sections of Mogadishu.

According to the analyst, "c lan-based groups within the Islamic Courts umbrella now support the peace process and want a share in the government, a move that largely alienates al Shabaab.

The Rest @ AllAfrica.com

US Bombs Terrorist Stronghold in Central Somalia

Aircraft bombed an Terrorist rebel stronghold in central Somalia on Thursday, witnesses said, but it was not immediately clear if there were any casualties.

U.S. forces have launched several airstrikes inside Somalia in recent months against al Shabaab insurgents who have been fighting Somalia's Western-backed interim government (TFG)and its Ethiopian military allies since the start of last year."

A plane bombarded the outskirts of our village," said Hassan Maalim in Goobgudud , 30 km (18 miles) southwest of Baidoa.

"The whole earth shook but we don't know the damage or death it caused. It was flying over us since morning."The identity of the aircraft was unclear.

In May, U.S. war planes killed al Shabaab leader Aden Hashi Ayro,Background about Terrorist ADAN HASHI FARAH(AYROW OR AYRO) who was said to be al Qaeda's top man in the country. That attack took place in Dusamareb, also in central somalia just like mogadishu is 90% hawiye .is hawiye Heartland.

Most of them are terrorist sympathizer Al -Shabaab Terrorist has links to al Qaeda and they provided a safe haven for militants including the bombers of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.

Somalia-based al Qaeda operatives were also suspected in a suicide attack on Kenya's coast in 2002 that killed 15 people at an Israeli-owned beach hotel.

Most of the Terrorist are from Hawiye tribe (al-shabaab)
The leadership is mostly sub-clans of Hawiye (Habar Gidir clan) With The Exception Of OGADEN CLAN (ONLF )own hassan turki and Abu Mansur a foot soldier from al-Qaeda.

The Rest @ Terror Free Somalia

Gedi Resigns: Will it be Better or Worse?

NAIROBI, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The United Nations welcomed on Tuesday the peaceful conclusion of a long-running feud between the Somali government's two most powerful men, which ended with Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi's resignation this week.

But analysts and diplomats warned that President Abdullahi Yusuf would have to please the Hawiye clan, from which Gedi hails, if he wanted to boost unity behind the government and cool an insurgency in Mogadishu.

Gedi's political and personal differences with Yusuf had frustrated Western backers and split the administration as it faced the raging insurgency this year.

The premier stepped down on Monday in a speech to parliament and was temporarily replaced by his deputy, Salim Aliyow Ibrow, while Yusuf seeks a new prime minister within a month.

With no clear candidate, analysts are split as to whether the resignation will help unify the interim government -- the 14th attempt at restoring central rule to Somalia since 1991 -- or merely herald a new round of wrangling.

The U.N. special envoy to Somalia, Ahmedou Ould Abdallah, urged officials to continue settling differences in accordance with the charter under which the government was set up in late 2004 in neighbouring Kenya.

He "welcomes the peaceful conclusion of the crisis within the Transitional Federal Government" and "particularly acknowledges the conciliatory tone and spirit of the statements issued by both" men, a statement from his Nairobi office said.

"He calls on the TFG to continue to seek peaceful solutions to its internal differences," it added.
Somali parliamentarians said Gedi had paid the price of failing to press ahead with key matters like creating a federal state and writing a new constitution.

"We hope the upcoming premier will succeed in all the work failed by his predecessor," said one, Ibrahim Isak Yarow.

"WILL BE WORSE"

Some diplomats who follow Somalia said they feared Yusuf might again make the mistake of not assenting to the demands of Mogadishu's powerful Hawiye clan, one of Somalia's biggest.

Although a Hawiye, Gedi was never backed by Hawiye outside his sub-clan because he was not their choice for the clan's top job in government.

Yusuf comes from the rival Darod clan.

"I think you can be very sure it will be worse. For now you can forget about sensible changes. It will never happen," said a Western diplomat who declined to be named.

The diplomat said some maneouvring was afoot to put up Hawiye warlords like Mohamed Qanyare Afrah or current Mogadishu Mayor Mohamed Dheere up for the job.

A Somalia expert from the Hawiye clan with close ties to the government said he expected the clan would get no quarter from Yusuf.

"The Hawiye are now defeated because Yusuf cannot change course. Gedi was at least able to maintain the government. Yusuf is consolidating power and won't give it up," the expert said.
Mogadishu was at last quiet on Tuesday after three days of fighting that have killed up to 20 people. Somali government forces, backed by Ethiopian military allies, have been clashing with rebels since the weekend in the worst fighting for week.

The Rest @ Reuters Africa