Puntland and Galmudug Agree to Cease Fire in Somalia

Ambassador Augustine Mahiga, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s Special Representative for Somalia

5 September 2011 – The leaders of two of Somalia's semi-autonomous regions today committed to a peaceful settlement of their dispute and adopted a four-point plan to ensure that hostilities between the two territories do not recur, the United Nations political office for the country said.

The agreement between Mohamed Ahmed Alin, the President of the Galmudug state, and Abdirahman Mohamed Mohamud “Farole,” the President of Puntland was signed on the sidelines of the Consultative Meeting for Ending the Transition in Somalia, which got under way in the capital, Mogadishu, yesterday.

“I am most gratified that the United Nations was able to bring the parties together in the margins of the Consultative Meeting and that they decided, in a spirit of brotherly reconciliation, to put aside their differences which had threatened to undermine this important moment in the peace process,” said Augustine Mahiga, the Secretary-General's Special Representative for Somalia, who is facilitating the three-day meeting.

Mr. Alin and Mr. Mohamud agreed to implement and maintain an immediate cease fire establish and maintain direct communication at the highest level address future issues in a non-violent and cooperative manner and recognize that they face a common threat from insurgent groups.

“Puntland and Galmudug are on Somalia's front lines in the ongoing fight against violent extremists that increasingly are relying on terror tactics to try and disrupt the Peace Process.

“As we work together at this important conference to adopt a roadmap for ending the transitional period in Somalia, I am most encouraged that the two leaders showed such statesmanship in agreeing to work together to resolve their differences peacefully. The UN continues to stand ready to assist,” said Dr. Mahiga.

The Rest @ The UN

Atom is Shababab, Which is al Qaeda -Atom is al Qaeda

Security forces under the command of the semi-autonomous region of Puntland in northern Somalia claimed to have defeated Shabaab and driven the al Qaeda-linked group from an area that has been described as the Tora Bora of East Africa.

Puntland forces launched the operation against Shabaab fighters under the command of Mohammed Said Atom in the Galgala Mountains region in late July.

"We have attacked their bases and chase them away," Puntland Security Minister Yusuf Ahmed Qeyr told Garowe two days ago. "Our forces are now in full control of the Galgala Mountains and the enemy suffered heavy casualties."

• Qeyr did not give an estimate of Shabaab casualties, but one commander claimed that the bodies of 11 terrorists were found, while three soldiers were killed.
• Another report claimed that "dozens" of Shabaab fighters were killed.
• Shabaab commander Atom has not been reported as killed or captured in the fighting.
• Local Puntland officials said Atom's bases in the mountainous region in the province of Sanaag are "like Tora Bora in Afghanistan," with cave complexes and training camps [see AFP report, Fears of a new Tora Bora in northern Somalia].
• In 2002, al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden battled against US Special Forces and Afghan militias in the Tora Bora mountain complex in Nangarhar in eastern Afghanistan.
  Atom denies links to Shabaab

Both Shabaab and Atom have denied that fighting in Puntland is related to the al Qaeda-linked group. "Al Shabaab is not connected to them [Atom's forces] and it's the local people in Galgala that are fighting against the Puntland government and PIS [Puntland's intelligence service]," Sheikh Ali Mohammed Rage, Shabaab's top spokesman, told Voice of America Somalia.

"There is no Al Shabaab involved," Atom said. "Themselves [Shabaab] are saying they are not involved."

But as Garowe reported,

• Atom and Rage provided nearly identical answers in coordinated statements to the press.
• Atom evaded direct questions on whether he was a member of Shabaab.
• He also echoed Shabaab talking points on the establishment of an Islamic state.
  

"We are Muslims and we wish to build an Islamic state and to remove the Ashahado la Dirir from Somalia," Atom told reporters. The Ashahado la Dirir is a phrase used by Shabaab and its predecessor, the Islamic Courts Union, to describe Somali and foreign enemies, Garowe reported.

UN links Atom to Shabaab

Earlier this year, the United Nations identifed Atom as "one of the principal suppliers of arms and ammunition for Al Shabaab operations in the Puntland region."

"Atom is aligned with Al Shabaab and may receive instructions from Al Shabaab leader Fu'aad Mohamed Khalaf," the UN report continued.

The UN linked Atom to the Feb. 5, 2008, bombing in Bosaso that killed 20 Ethiopian migrant workers and wounded more than 100. Shabaab has declared war on Ethiopia and has attacked Ethiopian troops and interests throughout the country.

• Shabaab has successfully carried out terror attacks in the relatively peaceful Somali north in the past. On Oct. 29, 2008, five Shabaab suicide bombers struck four compounds in Somaliland and Puntland, killing 28 and wounding scores.
• Three suicide car bombers struck the presidential palace, the UN Development Program compound, and the Ethiopian Consulate in the city of Hargeisa in Somaliland.
• In Bosaso, two bombers targeted an intelligence facility.
• On July 11 of this year, Shabaab carried out its first suicide attack outside Somalia, when two bombers detonated at restaurants in Kampala, Uganda, as soccer fans watched the World Cup.
• In that attack, 74 civilians were killed and more than 60 were wounded.

The Shabaab cell that carried out the Kampala attack is called the Saleh Ali Nabhan Brigade, which is named after the slain al Qaeda leader who also served as a senior Shabaab leader.

Nabhan was one of the most sought out al Qaeda operatives in Africa. He was wanted for involvement in the 1998 suicide attacks against US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

Shabaab's top leadership positions are dominated by foreign commanders, according to an intelligence assessment by the African Union Mission for Somalia. The foreign Shabaab commanders have trained in al Qaeda camps in Afghanistan or Pakistan, and many have entered Somalia over the past year to assume top leadership roles in Shabaab.

The al Qaeda commanders come from Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Sudan, and the United States.Read more:

The Rest @ The Long War Journal

Golis Telecom

Maxamuud Axmad Xasan - Chairman
C/caziiz Guureeye Kaarshe - Vice Chairman
Khaliif Ciise Mudan
Axmad C/qaadir Diiriye
Baashe Jaamac Muuse
Jaamac Faarax Gaas
Yuusuf Cali Biixi
Aadam Shiikhdoon Cali

31 Killed in Hargeisa, Somali Suicide Bombing

A wave of synchronized suicide attacks on UN, diplomatic and government institutions in northern Somalia killed up to 31 people today.

Three car bombs detonated in Hargeisa, the capital of the breakaway Somaliland region. Another two vehicles exploded in neighbouring Puntland, which, like Somaliland, has been relative peaceful compared to the rest of the country.

The careful coordination and nature of the attacks is unprecedented in Somalia and marks a serious deterioration in an already dire security situation.

Suspicion immediately fell on the radical Shabaab militia, which is part of much broader Islamist-led resistance fighting against the Somali government and occupying Ethiopian troops.

• In Hargeisa, the Ethiopian consulate suffered the greatest damage, with up to 20 people reported dead.
• An attack on the president's palace killed at three people, including the presidential secretary,
• Two workers died at the headquarters of the UN Development Programme (UNPD).
• In Bossaso, at separate interior ministry offices responsible for combating terrorism, several car bombs killed six people.

Dozens were injured in the five attacks.

"A vehicle forced its way into the compound and then exploded," said a UNPD spokesperson in Nairobi. "It appears that the driver of the car was still inside."

The suicide bombers, who were reported to have used driving four-wheel drive vehicles, struck within a few minutes of each other.

In Bossaso, Puntland's main city, explosive-laden cars detonated at separate interior ministry offices responsible for combating terrorism, killing six people. Dozens were injured in the five attacks.

"I fear that this is exactly what it looks like - the Shabaab," said a military expert on Somalia, who cannot be named because of his position. "We expected them to launch high-profile attacks, but this was extraordinary, requiring a large coordinated and concealed effort."

• Analysts believe the timing of the bombings was no accident. Regional heads of state, including Somalia's president, Abdullahi Yusuf, were meeting yesterday in Nairobi to discuss the country's future.
• Peace efforts had received a boost over the weekend when Yusuf's government and the opposition Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) signed a deal in Djibouti agreeing to a ceasefire, and a phased withdrawal of Ethiopian troops.
• But a breakaway wing of the ARS, as well as the Shabaab, rejected the deal. They refuse to enter negotiations before the complete withdrawal of the Ethiopian forces that invaded Somalia in December 2006 to oust an Islamist authority from power.

Previously during peace negotiations the Shabaab has launched large attacks, mainly in Mogadishu, to demonstrate that they have control on the ground.
"It's clear that the Shabaab, or jihadis or whatever you want to call them, are trying to make a statement that they target any place in Somalia, not just the south," said a Western diplomat in Nairobi. "But we cannot let this undermine the Djibouti agreement, and we have to expect and accept that these sort of attacks may continue in the short term."

Previously there have only been one or two small suicide attacks in Somalia.

Yesterday, in the Islamist-controlled port city of Kismayo, a 23-year woman accused of adultery was stoned to death in public - the first such execution in two years.

The Rest @ The Guardian

This is a summarized version of a great PINR report (See below), that illustrates Chinas impact in Africa

-Shimron

The Financial Times reported on July 13 that the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation (C.N.O.O.C.) has signed a deal with Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf to explore the northern Puntland region for oil.

• The initial agreement was signed last May, and it was endorsed at the China-Africa summit held in Beijing last November. [See: "Upcoming Summit Highlights Africa's Importance to China"]
• A meeting between C.N.O.O.C. and Somali officials was held on June 24 to finalize the deal.
• The terms indicate that the Somali government would retain 51 percent of the oil revenues under a production-sharing arrangement.
• Further reporting from the Financial Times, however, revealed that Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi was not aware of the contract, suggesting that the oil deal remains vulnerable to political infighting.
• China's willingness to invest in Somalia -- before the Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) completes work on a national oil law and as the security situation continues to deteriorate -- shows that Beijing has not been deterred by the growing backlash across Africa at Chinese policies and remains willing to take on political risks that Western firms will not tolerate.
• Threats to China in Africa Chinese investments have come under attack in recent months, and a general wariness about closer ties with Beijing has become part of the political dialogue in most African countries where China does business.
• Days after the June meeting in Somalia, a Chinese mining executive was kidnapped in Niger.
• The incident followed the killing of nine Chinese workers in Ethiopia, near the border with Somalia, in April.
• Chinese workers have also come under attack in Nigeria in recent months.
• Politically, Chinese investments have become a touchy subject.
• Michael Sata's opposition campaign in Zambia received strong backing after he attacked Chinese investments and threatened to renew ties with Taiwan.
• He ultimately failed in his bid for the presidency, however, after China threatened retaliatory measures if he was elected.
• Similar complaints have been raised in Nigeria and South Africa.
• China began to address the growing unease in Africa toward its investments earlier this year.
• Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Zambia and South Africa in February where he pledged further investments and a greater focus on community development plans.
• China has also publicly used its leverage in Sudan to press Khartoum to accept the terms of last year's U.N. Security Council resolution on the Darfur crisis. [See: "China Adjusts its Approach in Africa" and "China Claims Success on Darfur"]
• Nevertheless, China's fundamental goals in Africa have not changed.
• In Africa, China is looking to secure access to the natural resources it needs to keep its economic expansion humming, as well as support for its policies at the United Nations.
• The C.N.O.O.C. deal in Somalia is evidence that China's risk appetite has not decreased as it pursues these goals in Africa.
• Somalia has no proven oil reserves, and only 200 billion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves.
• Companies including Agip, Shell (Pecten), Conoco and Phillips (now merged), and Amoco (now part of BP) spent over US$150 million on onshore exploration in the 1980s and early 1990s, but no oil reserves were discovered.
• Still Range Resources, a small Australian-based oil firm with close contacts to the government in Puntland, estimates that the region could hold 5 to 10 billion barrels of oil based on an analysis of the previous exploration reports.
• The Puntland province claims autonomy from the government in Mogadishu, but not independence like Somaliland.
• The region has been relatively calm compared to central and southern Somalia since 1991, but the political situation remains uncertain.
• President Yusuf was certainly involved in the negotiations with the Chinese firm, as he hails from the Puntland province and maintains close ties with the local leadership, but the prime minister of the T.F.G. was left out of the loop.
• The fact that Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi was kept out of the negotiations suggests that the terms of the deal are not beneficial to the T.F.G. or Somalia's other provinces.
• This could exacerbate already strained ties between the prime minister and the president. [See: "Somalia Continues its Political Collapse"]The prime minister appears to have led an effort within the T.F.G. to pass a national oil law that would allow Western firms to return to Somalia under production-sharing agreements, which require oil firms to share their production with the government after initial costs are covered.
• He told the Dow Jones Newswire in April that a national oil law would be passed within two months, a deadline that has slipped. The oil law in question seems to be similar to the one pushed in Iraq by the United States, which has also not been passed.
• China may have wished to sign the deal for exploration rights in Puntland before the law was passed, in order to avoid competition with Western majors, but the emergence of a national oil law could threaten the investment. [See: "Sectarian Fighting Overshadows Oil Law Debate in Iraq"]
• The fact that China would enter into an agreement in such an uncertain legal and political environment, to say nothing of the security concerns, shows that it is still willing to take on risks that the Western oil majors cannot tolerate.
• This remains the main competitive advantage for China in the race to secure natural resources around the world -- while Chinese firms do not have the technology to drill in some of the conditions that Western firms can, they do not have the same political and financial constraints that prevent them from investing in regions considered off limits to Western firms.
• Last month, for example, China National Petroleum Corporation (C.N.P.C.) signed a deal to co-develop an offshore block in Sudan, where China has been the dominant player in the oil sector after sanctions caused Western firms to suspend their operations or pull out completely.
• Sudan now supplies up to ten percent of China's oil imports.
• In Angola, China provided $2 billion in soft loans to the government that allowed it to avoid implementing reforms requested by Western donors. In return, Angola ensured that it would provide continuous oil supplies to Beijing. [See: "China and Angola Strengthen Bilateral Relationship"]
• C.N.O.O.C. said earlier this year that it would boost output to 78 million tons from 40.3 million tons last year. In order to maintain growth rates near this level, Beijing will need to continue to help its oil companies invest in regions where Western firms cannot.
• This means that China will fund infrastructure projects in countries under Western sanctions, such as Sudan, or where security concerns dissuade Western firms from investing more, such as Nigeria.
• The decision to invest in Somalia's Puntland region is part of this strategy.
• Only a small firm, such as Range Resources, would be able to take on a similar risk level, and that firm has spent several years courting the local government officials there.
• With the financial and political backing of the Chinese government, C.N.O.O.C. and C.N.P.C. have a distinct advantage over the smaller Western firms.

China's move into Somalia's oil industry is a further example of its strategy for securing access to natural resources around the world.

• Rather than purchasing oil on the global markets, as the United States does for the most part, China prefers to secure control of the resources it needs at the source.
• However, because China's oil firms lack the technical capabilities and political clout of the Western majors, Beijing prefers to deal with regions that are out of reach to the competition.
• This practice has sparked a growing backlash across Africa to China's policies.
• Many locals see Beijing's actions as protecting corrupt and often dictatorial leaders.
• Beijing has attempted to counter this perception recently by investing in infrastructure projects in regions where the backlash is strongest, leaking reports of its unhappiness with the most controversial leaders, and granting local businesses better access to China's markets in some industries.
• The investment in Somalia's Puntland province still looks risky, even by Chinese standards. The deal appears to have been struck with the local officials in the province that claims autonomy from the transitional, central government. However, the president of the T.F.G., who is from the region, was involved in the deal. The prime minister of the T.F.G. appears to prefer another model to attract investments, passing a national oil law that will clarify the legal questions that prevent Western firms from returning to Somalia.
• The Chinese deal may well fall victim to the political infighting that is likely to follow. Still, the T.F.G.'s claim to control Puntland appears to be weakening as the central government remains frozen in a state of political collapse.
• Two days after the Financial Times first reported about the Chinese oil deal, the much awaited national reconciliation conference had to be delayed because security for the meeting could not be guaranteed in Mogadishu. Given the T.F.G.'s uncertainty, Beijing's decision to work with the local representatives in Puntland may well prove to be enough, and China could soon be pumping Somali oil, if it even exists.

Adam Wolfe

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of enquiries@pinr.com. PINR reprints do not qualify under Fair-Use Statute Section 107 of the Copyright Act. All comments should be directed to comments@pinr.com.

The Rest @ PINR