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Tuesday, March 08, 2011

The Impact of Libya's Credibility Loss in Africa

The fall of oppressive North African Regimes in Tunisia and Egypt came suddenly, and the impact on Africa will unfold over time; but the Loss of Gaddafi and Libya as a stabilizing force in Arab - African relations is currenlty being overlooked, and contingincy planners need to explore  possibilities that have not been considered before.

Though I am not a fan of  Gaddafi's regime, he deliberatly and successfully placed himself in a role as mediator and ambassador between the Arab World and the African World.

Gaddafi has invested signficant ammounts of money in Africa, and that will disappear. Using his  Libya African Arab Investement Company ( LAAICO ) Gaddfi brought Libyan Oil and outside  Arab investment money into a wide vareity of African businesses like food companies, hotel chains, real estate, banks, and even telecoms. As a Muslim owned business, LAAICO has it's sharia - compliant accountants and lawyers that made sure these inverstments funded the expansion of Islam in Africa. Though the principles of Taqiyya make it difficult to know for shure, it appears Qaddifi has been funding the building of Mosqs all over Africa for a generation, likely funded by Libya's Islamic Charity Tax that Deloitti calls the Jihad Tax. There is no dispute that their are many thousands employed in Sub-Saharan Africa busuinesses because of Gaddaffi's investments.

Gaddifi  has been an equal opportunity oppressor, oppressing and torturing hard-core Islamist groups groups in Libya, as well as nomadic islamist groups from Niger and Chad who have passed through Libya. The current civil war may have begun when an Al qaeda group, Libyan Islamic Fighting Group took over an arms depot. Now there is more opportunity for Al Qaeda affiliates, or other islamic groups to expand their operations in the Sahel region.

He has been a mediator between several North African countries on more than one occasion.
I will not argue with any one putting forth the concept the Gaddafi is evil. However, removing a two generation consistent force in North Africa will produce power shifts all over North Africa.

Here are some possibilities:
  • Groups like AQIM, the remnants of  MNJ, and even  will try and move their individual agendas forward.
  • Watch for North Sudan Malitias, the government funded perpetrators of  the Darfur genocides to try to move in this space and time while the west focuses on otherpaces in North Africa
  • Watch for a weapon and logstics resupply for Congo rebel groups.
  • Aglerian and Morocco Islamist groups with try to
  • Southern Libya is mostly unoccopied desert, spareselt frequeneted by Tuaregs and Smugglers.
  • Expect Drug and human Trafficers to look for new Libyan connections into Europe.
  • Expect Arab Investors to look for new people to help them invest in Africa
After the last two months, No matter what happens in the civil war, Gaddafi will move back into his status as a pariah. His influence  has been damaged beyond repair, and this will change the face of North Africa.

Shimron Issachar

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