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Friday, June 01, 2007

Al Qaeda Will lose It's Prestige

I see now that al Qaeda's world wide long term strategy is fatally flawed.

They have failed to deliver an acceptable Salafist message to Sunni Muslims around the world.
The message, that there is another Caliph out there that every Muslim must join, has failed.

They have rediscovered the old barrier, that all politics are local. When America pulls out of Iraq, and they will, They will no longer have money or people recruiting power.

al Qaeda has already moved into the Palestinian territories, and their best efforts will be to try to rally the Jihad to support the Palestinian cause. The problem is that constant Palestinian infighting has already left powerful world wide supporters, like the International Muslim Brotherhood and the Islamic Banking system, and Muslims everywhere perplexed as to how best to support the Palestinian cause. Therefore, the only way for al Qaeda to to progress its own agenda, and the Palestinian cause is to unite the Palestinians under an al Qaeda flag.

...and this is the the last thing any Muslim dominated state, Secular or Sacred wants.

Multiple governments, and multinational Islamic groups, Shia and most Sunni alike will step in in their own ways to prevent this from happening.

al Qaeda will try to reignite Jihadist fury by hitting Western targets in some accessible areas, and they may even have some limited success. But al Qaeda's long term efforts to create the next Caliphate will be further than ever from their grasp.

The only remaining strategy for al Qaeda is to spread terror to other Countries, aimed at the West. They will have demonstrated their willingness to kill local Muslims everywhere, and they can promise nothing local for Muslims except killing other Muslims.

And all politics are local, especially in Muslim Countries.

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