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Friday, December 24, 2010

What will Happen Next in Sudan

Sudan's Referendum will happen on January the 9th, 2011, as scheduled. If it is a clean election, the South will vote to become a separate country. Whether it is clean or not, the results will be challenged. During the challenge, the allies of each side will emerge.

Expect the usually Islamist suspects to rise up, namly, the Muslim Brotherhood, everywhere in the world. China is a major player, and since it has oil perchase contracts with the North, It is likely they will side with them. The south will ask for whatever help they can get, mostly western sources. The civli rights watchers who nmonitor the Darfur criminals will fall into the south's camp.

When the time of challenges is over, if the south has succeeded in the separation efforts, the North will act. They will act on three fronts, Political, Public Opinion, and Military.

Political.
  • They will use what ever diplomatic relationships they have to try and delay implementation of the separation as long as possible.

Public Opinion

  • Expect them to borrow a page from the Palestinian book. You will find a cadre of attractive, empassioned sudanese giving press conferences to the press all around the world talking about how the est is trying to pull their country apart.
  • Expect al Aqaeda and other islamist groups to begin to recruit using Sudan as another front for the global jihad.

Military

  • While using the actions of unsactioned "militia groups" to commit attrocities, The North created almost universal global condimnation in Darfur, a section of NOrth West Sudan, they were tactically very succesfull. The North is already planning series of attacks in the south by "unscantioned malitias.
  • Look for Eritria, Somalia, and Ogaden islamist mujahadeen to participate
  • Look for al Aqeda trainers and leaders to be active in the mix.

I don't know how the UN, the AU, and the west will respond, but it is likely the South Sudan has been preparing and arming for defense. I see that it is likely that the civil war will be reignighted.

-Shimron Issachar

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