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Thursday, October 07, 2010

Ibrahim Shukri Leader of Ras Kamboni

A number of new forces have emerged over the past year to counter al Shabab
influence in southern and central Somalia. Most notably, this includes multiple clanbased
ASWJ groups operating in Galgadud,Hiran, and Gedo.

There are also reports of new groups emerging, including the “Galmudug” initiative linked to the Habr Gedir:Saad subclan and the “Himan and Heeb” initiative of the Suleiman subclan.
There is also potential for the Ras Kamboni group under Ahmed Madobe and Ibrahim Shukri to defect from the insurgency into a position that is not a political challenge andthat may end up supporting the TFG.

These are all positive developments, but they remain fragile and local political ambitions overlap.
There is serious potential for each to fall into the trap of “warlordism” and clan-based
competition for control of key locations and resources, which would further complicate
the quest for stability in central Somalia.

The Rest BY Andrea Le sage @ Institute for National Strategic Studies

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