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Friday, October 24, 2008

Seven Steps to a Caliphate, Three years Later

I mostly just listen, study and pray, but occasionally I emerge from my hole in the watchman's wall and make a comment.

One of the early posts that I did from this blog years ago was an article from Jane Doe of Der Speigel, The Seven Steps to a World Wide Calipihate. The plan listed there seems to actually have been what al Qaeda has attempted to implement. In view of that, it is worthy of a re-look to see what happens next. How well have they accomplished the plan?

A side note:

I am well aware of the teachings of Sayyid Qutb, his Milestones, Hassan al Banna and others, and recognize that this plan is based on their teachings.

al Qaeda is the armed and unruly son in an Ikhwan family; The sons agree in world view, in the nature of the West, and in the final outcome. These brothers (no pun intended) do not like each other much, are frustrated by each others actions, yet they are familly.

....Let us make no mistake in thinking we can interact with one without dealing with the other. They support each other in private if not in public....

That being said, here was the al Qaeda plan, probably gathered in 2004 or 2005:

Phase One: "the awakening" This has already been carried out and was supposed to have lasted from 2000 to 2003, or more precisely from the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in New York and Washington to the fall of Baghdad in 2003. The aim of the attacks of 9/11 was to provoke the US into declaring war on the Islamic world and thereby "awakening" Muslims

  • It is clear by most measures that this phase was successful. The US and the West has been provoked.

Phase Two: "Opening Eyes" According to Hussein's definition, the period we are now in and should last until 2006. Hussein says the terrorists hope to make the western conspiracy aware of the "Islamic community." Hussein believes this is a phase in which al-Qaida wants an organization to develop into a movement. The network is banking on recruiting young men during this period. Iraq should become the center for all global operations, with an "army" set up there and bases established in other Arabic states.

  • As of October 2008, most of this phase is still incomplete. Some parts have failed, some are succeeding.
  • The West is significantly more aware of the Islamic Community than it was before
  • Al Qaeda, and the Muslim Brotherhood, though they have significant differences in tactics but not strategy, are in the ideological process of recruiting young men. They are having some success all over the world, but not as much as they had hoped.
  • Their aims in Iraq have utterly failed. Even if there is a civil war when the US departs Iraq, Al Qaeda has been decisively discredited in Iraq and they will not get the credit for the US departure when Muslim men talk over coffee, and that is where it counts.
  • However, because of their successful fund raising and recruiting of International Mujahadeen, they have shifted the war to other places, most notably Africa, Europe, Lebanon, Gaza and possibly South Asia.

Phase III The Rising Up" Should last from 2007 to 2010. "There will be a focus on Syria," prophesies Hussein, based on what his sources told him. The fighting cadres are supposedly already prepared and some are in Iraq. Attacks on Turkey and -- even more explosive -- in Israel are predicted. Al-Qaeda's masterminds hope that attacks on Israel will help the terrorist group become a recognized organization. The author also believes that countries neighboring Iraq, such as Jordan, are also in danger.

  • Since their failure in Iraq, al Qaeda seems to have taken a decentralized approach to building the Caliphate by creating Islamist bases.
  • Note the creation of the "Islamic Emirates" of Somalia (southern Somalia), Afghanistan (Taliban Held areas), the Caucuses (Chechnia) and Waziristan (Paksitan). Look for AQIM in the Sahel to try and do the same. While these are not real states, they are districts in which Al Qaeda has declared itself in charge, establishing Sharia, places into which they can send new recruits.
  • Northern Nigeria is semi autonomous and acts as a de facto Emirate, and has no need to declare a separate state, which would provoke a reaction from the government andyway.
  • Al Qaeda has failed in coming against secular Arab States, most notably in Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Syria, and even Jordan, but Pakistan is in danager.

Phase Four: Between 2010 and 2013, Hussein writes that al-Qaida will aim to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The estimate is that "the creeping loss of the regimes' power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaida." At the same time attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers and the US economy will be targeted using cyber terrorism.

  • Since the Failure in Iraq and the Secular Kafir States has not been effective, Al Qaeda seems to be leaving the The Ikhwan (Muslim Brotherhood) to bring on the collapse of the regimes' power.
  • Al Qaeda has recently called for attacks against American and Western oil interests, and has engaged in attacks in many places, mostly with failed results. (note the attack on the American Embassy in Yemmen)
  • Cyber Terrorism has largely failed, but Cyber communication and cyber recruiting, small scale cyber criminal enterprise, and cyber training for the Mujahadeen have been succesful.

Phase Five: This will be the point at which an Islamic state, or caliphate, can be declared. The plan is that by this time, between 2013 and 2016, Western influence in the Islamic world will be so reduced and Israel weakened so much, that resistance will not be feared.

In the Future:

  • Al Qaeda is hoping that the economic troubles in the West will lead to a reduction in their influence. We will see, but I doubt it.
  • They will feed new recruits and money into their Emirates, work to strengthen Sharia, and expand the Jihad outward.
  • Al Qaeda now leads the global jihad from the remote Mountains north of Islamibad, PK The fight for Pakistan is out of Wazieristan.
  • al Qaeda would love to move out into the open in Pakistan or Afghanistan and declare the multi national Caliphate.
  • If Usamma is still alive, they would try to bring him out to declare the Caliphate. They would start roumers with the Shi'ia that the leader is the Hidden Imam returning as prophesied. The leader would hedge, without actually denial, claiming that timing for the Imam's return is not yet right, hopoing to draw some Shi'ia into the movement

Phase Six: Hussein believes that from 2016 onwards there will a period of "total confrontation." As soon as the caliphate has been declared the "Islamic army" it will instigate the "fight between the believers and the non-believers" which has so often been predicted by Osama bin Laden.

  • The war would continue from the Emirates, directed by the Caliphate, and they would muster every man of fighting age into military training for great war to come. Shabaab in Somalia made that very annoucmenet as soons as they declared the Islamic Emirate of Somalia.
  • The Islamic Finance system will have been built by then, so that the end results of the Saleh Kamel-led Sharia finance qill be that al Qaeda and the Brothers no longer need any financial cooperation with western banks. This process is underway. With the Banking Centers in Dubai, how long before the Caliphate movement won't need Western Banks at all?

Phase Seven: This final stage is described as "definitive victory." Hussein writes that in the terrorists' eyes, because the rest of the world will be so beaten down by the "one-and-a-half billion Muslims," the caliphate will undoubtedly succeed. This phase should be completed by 2020, although the war shouldn't last longer than two years.

  • This is pure fantasy, unless the West remains asleep, as it mostly is now.

What the West Can Do:

  • The Energy Independence movement has been born in America, but is a decade away away from impacting al Qaeda. We need to nurture it.
  • Fight this global war in a more coordinated strategic way.
  • Chase he who believes that he must violently fight his god's own battle for him from one country to another.
  • Keep sharing intelligence
  • Keep reducing the cycle time from actionable intelligence to mission launch.
  • Keep moving people deep into the Islamic banking movement, into every invisible transfer point.
  • Keep monitoring the Shi'ia-Sunni interactons.
  • Keep Tracking Recruiting efforts by all 70 Ikhwan front grous in the US and many more in Europe.
  • Keep mnitoring the Ikhwan and martial arts training going on in every country, right under the nose of the authorities (Even Egypt).

finally, The West must regain its spiritual center, it's cultural purpose and take a passionate and moral message of its own about what the best of Western culture is really about, and carry its peace to the cultural Muslim, without destroying their cultural identity. To borrow a quote from Irwin Rommel ( It think) "no one every won a war from a defensive position"

The end of the beginning of the Long war is almost here. We have work to do.

Now, back to my hole in the wall.

-Shimron Issachar

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