AQIM MOves into a ombing Offensive

August 20th 2008
COUNTRY BRIEFING

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

Some 60 people have been killed in a series of car bomb explosions over two days in a region to the south-east of Algiers, marking a major escalation in the activity of Islamist underground groups that have acquired new purpose since affiliating with al-Qaida in 2006. The upsurge in violence appears to reflect the concern of al-Qaida's leadership to open up new fronts in the Middle East and North Africa after the serious setbacks that the movement has suffered in Iraq. Some Algerian commentators have also blamed the escalation on the government's reconciliation policy, thereby raising questions over whether the president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, should be allowed to stay on for a third term.

The heaviest casualties from the latest attacks occurred when a suicide bomber exploded his vehicle outside a gendarmerie training college in Issers on August 19th where a large number of prospective new recruits were waiting for the gates to open. The government said that 43 people were killed and 45 injured. The next day there were two car bomb explosions in the nearby town of Bouira. The first, outside a military building, left four soldiers lightly wounded, according to the official Algerian Press Service. The second exploded outside a hotel, and killed 11 people. It was reported that the hotel was being used to house contractors working on the nearby Koudiet Acerdoune dam project. Companies from Canada, Turkey and Italy have been involved in this project, but it was not immediately clear whether any foreign nationals were among the casualties.

Summer offensive

In the first half of 2008 there was a lull in attacks by Islamist groups as the security forces stepped up their operations following the mid-December bombing of the UN headquarters in Algiers, which, together with another attack in the capital on the same day, left 41 people dead. However, there has been a marked increase in attacks in recent weeks. On August 3rd a police station in Tizi Ouzou, the capital of the Kabylia region, was damaged in a suicide bomb attack, leaving 25 people injured; six days later eight people—all civilians—were killed in an attack on a police station in Zemmouri al-Bahri, a seaside town to the east of Algiers; and the following day three policemen were killed in a bomb attack on the nearby beach of Tigzirt. On August 15th an army patrol was ambushed near Skikda, in the northeastern corner of Algeria and several soldiers, including one senior officer, were reported to have been killed.

All of these attacks are presumed to be the work of al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the new incarnation of the Groupe salafiste pour la prédication et le combat (GSPC). Prior to the proclamation of AQIM by Abdelmalek Droukdal, the former leader of the GSPC, with the blessing of Ayman al-Zawahri, al-Qaida's number two, Algeria's armed Islamist forces appeared to be close to extinction.

The bulk of these forces had been neutralised as a result of a truce with the army that went into effect in 1999, at the start of Mr Bouteflika's first term. Mr Bouteflika sought to persuade the remaining militants to lay down their arms in response to his Charter for Peace and National Reconciliation, which was approved in 2005, and which offered an amnesty for fighters as well as exempting members of the security services from prosecution. A hard core of the GSPC rejected the charter, and there is some evidence that the ranks of the movement may even have been swelled as a result of the government's release of more than 2,000 former militants as part of the Charter's provisions.

Mr Droukdal has presented the mission of AQIM as being to contribute to al-Qaida's global campaign by attacking Western interests in Algeria. These interests are clearly taken to include the Algerian security forces.

In denial

Mr Bouteflika has largely refrained from commenting on the increase in Islamist violence since AQIM's emergence, and has left it to his interior minister, Yazid Zerhouni, to present the government's view. Mr Zerhouni has consistently sought to downplay the significance of AQIM attacks, and has claimed on several occasions over the past two years that the group's resort to suicide bombings was a sign of desperation. Following the Issers attack, Mr Zerhouni was quoted as saying that AQIM was riven with divisions and rivalries, and that the recent incidents were a sign of rival factions trying to outbid each other.

Mr Bouteflika's concern to downplay the Islamist terrorist threat could reflect his sensitivity on the subject of his reconciliation initiative. The Charter has manifestly failed to deliver peace and security, and it could even be blamed for exacerbating the violence by fostering a permissive attitude towards past crimes.

Mr Bouteflika also recently vented his frustration at the relatively poor performance of the Algerian economy during his time in office, pinning part of the blame for this on foreign investors, whom he accused of profiteering at Algeria's expense. It has long been assumed that Mr Bouteflika would push through the necessary changes to the constitution to enable him to stand for a third term in April 2009. However, with security deteriorating and the economy failing to perform to its potential, the record of Mr Bouteflika's first two terms is looking steadily less impressive, and there are some indications that powerful figures in the military and political establishment are looking for an alternative—preferably someone who will take a more resolute line on AQIM.

The Economist Intelligence Unit

Source: ViewsWire