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Thursday, August 30, 2007

Somalia Mujahadeen are in a Preparation for war Phase

The December, 2006 Somalia-Ethiopia Campaign continues today.

The Following is an excerpt from A Report to the United Nations Security council, S/2007/43607-38315 4. The Report was Made on 27 June, posted to the web on 17 July, 2007. I have created some bullet points from the narrative to help clarify some points, and have left out filler text, but I believe I have left the intent of the report writers unchanged in emphasis , and have left out no major points. Here is the original 51 Page Report.


"....Notwithstanding the difficulties in monitoring developments transpiring during
the current mandate, one thing is clear: Somalia is literally awash with arms."

"It is the view of the Monitoring Group that the sheer quantities, numbers and diversity of
arms, especially in central and southern Somalia, are greater than at any time since
the early 1990s. In general, the sources of the arms are varied. They include:

  • arms that have been brought into Somalia by both the Ethiopian and Ugandan military —
    the Ugandans under a Security Council exemption for the African Union, the
    Ethiopians without an exemption.

  • The majority of arms, however, appear to have been brought into Somalia via
    clandestine routes and have found their way to a variety of key Somali actors.

  • "....huge quantities of arms have been provided to the Shabaab by and through Eritrea.

  • Furthermore, although the Shabaab have lost a portion of their arms as a result of military engagements, it is reported that they have considerably more hidden in weapons caches for future use.

  • It is also worth noting that the weapons in caches and otherwise in possession of the Shabaab include an unknown number of surface-to-air missiles, suicide belts, and explosives with timers and detonators.

  • One of the prime avenues being the arms dealers from the Bakaraaha Arms Market. The Bakaraaha Arms Market has rebounded from a slow period during the previous mandate and is now doing a brisk and lucrative business in arms sales.

    (picture from the UN Report)

"The Monitoring Group has made a number of specific recommendations in the
current report. However, successful implementation of the recommendations depends on the establishment of viable government in Somalia."

  • "The Transitional Federal Government, in the current context, must clearly establish its authority and accompanying governmental institutions before the continuous and vexing problems associated with widespread insecurity can be brought under control."

  • Contributing to the insecurity are a number of important factors, including continued arms flows and powerful independent armed groups outside the control of the Transitional Federal Government,

  • Overall lack of regulatory control of the economy,

  • An economically powerful business community divided by its lack of support for the Transitional Federal Government and

  • Lack of control over Somalia’s borders and coastal waters. "

There is much more in the report, but It is clear that a ramp up of hostilities is underway in Somalia, not a ramp down. It is a classic al-Qaeda in Africa Operation:

  • Foreign mujaheddin being flown in through Eritrea, funded through Halawa Agencies-do I have to name them again?
  • Arms caches being buried all over Somalia for future use
  • Independent foreign militia groups are being formed
  • They then go into training, doing small to medium scale attacks to gain experience
  • Commercial Arms Dealers are creating re-arm, resupply points:
  • Funding is coming from outside sources, and they pay for transactions using sat-phones linked to Islamic bank accounts: No money has to change hands in the field.
  • Islamic businesses providing facilities for logistics and barracks in hidden rooms or bob shelters
  • Islamic Telecoms providing communications systems: Somalia has some of the cheapest cell phone services in Africa, and accounts can be paid by data link on sat phones
  • Isalmic telecommunications make it easy for Mujahadeen to send updates to their private funders
  • Soon, after inteligence is gathered from the traning attacks, a larger scale plan is developed.
  • Troops are not massed until the very last minute to avoid overwhelming firepower from Ethiopians or the US.
  • After the attack, everyone disperses back to their pre-designed "laying low" spot in twos and threes, in private houses, in mosques, in the bush, back to being employed as clan gaurds, or Kaat-growing areas.
  • They go back to the arms Bazzar, like the picutre above, individually or in small groups, and resupply themselves - They pay be phone, or have a prearranged deal with a halawa firm or a clan.

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