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Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Al Qaeda Trying To Take the Pan African Jihad to the Next Level

Ethiopia

  • Ethiopia is now surrounded on three sides by Regimes supporting Jihad or Jihad Rebels.
  • Ethiopia's support of the transitional Somali government in the current civil war in Somalia war reflects that understanding. Their move was a preemptive strike.
  • The Union of Islamic Courts, (UIC) the Somali rebel group, using an Ethiopian Muslim Rebel Group, The Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF)who has been fighting along side them in Somalia just attacked a Chinese oil field in Eastern Ethiopia, with 200 soldiers.
  • They killed 74 Ethiopian workers and kidnapped 7 Chinese workers.

Somalia

  • This is a counter-Attack, trying to retake the initiative they lost when they were attacked by Ethiopian-reinforced government troops before they could attack. (The Union of Islamic Courts had been massing on the Ethiopian border before they attack)
  • The UIC, directing the ONLF, will try and leverage the 7 Chinese Hostages to get two things:

1) Chinese pressure on the Ethiopian Government to withdraw from the Somali civil war

2) Freedom to secede from Ethiopia.

  • The ONLF will claim it only wants Independence
  • If Successful, They will then join Somalia on the side of the UIC to continue their offensive Against Ethiopia.
  • The plans are that Somalia, once again controlled by the UIC will once again become the staging are for the Jihad underway against North Africa.
  • Recruits will again be brought in, trained and assigned to units in Somalia

Nigeria

  • The recently botched elections in Northern Nigeria will be used as Justification for the Muslim Uprising in the North
  • Jihadists will try and bring in forces that have been training in under governed areas of Niger and Mali just for this moment.
  • The 12 states under Sharia law in the North will then try and launch a civil war, or use the presence of al Qaeda rebels in Northern Nigeria to get concessions
  • If they get the concessions they are looking for, They will use these al Qaeda units to attack Western CHAD

CHAD

  • Sudan, already in Eastern CHAD, needs a place to move their genocidal forces as the UN Troops come in.
  • They will try and send the units across CHAD, supported by government Aircraft, to cut the country in half
  • They will try and join up with Jihadist forces coming in from North Eastern Nigeria.

Al Qaeda, now free to recruit and train Jihadist in both the East and the West will then try and launch a new, strengthened call for the Next Caliphate, and ask for recognition for new Islamic republics- In NOrthern Nigeria and Southern Chad. Al Qaeda in Iraq, Somalia, Eriteria, and possibly Madagascar would liekly recognize them.

Prevention: Things that could stop the plan

  • If China decides that they need to make a statement, and sends a hostage rescue team to get their oil workers-things could get complicated for their plan.
  • If The US sends forces against al Qaeda units as they move as they did in Somalia
  • If the Nigerian government decides not to negoitate but attack Northern Nigeria
  • A significant Act of God, as has happend before, that thwarts the plan
  • Shia movement in Africa that interferes with this sunni plan.(Iran, Hizballa, etc)

My Point is:

Do you guys see the same thing?

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