Jihad in the Horn: US Continutes to Hunt al Quaida in Somalia

Wednesday, 25 January

A U.S. warplane attacked a village in southern Somalia on Monday in an attempt to destroy an al Qaeda cell accused of bombing two U.S. embassies and an Israeli-owned hotel in east Africa.

read more from Yahoo News

U.S. helicopter gunships attacked suspected Al Qaeda terrorists hiding in Somalia Tuesday, a Somali official said, a day after U.S. Special Operations forces launched at least two air attacks

read more
Also - Nigeria and Ehtiopia are planning to sent troops to a UN peac keeping mission in Somalia.



read more from Yahoo News
************************************************
Tuesday, 23 january, 2007 :Ethiopian Army leaving Somalia

NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan. 23 — The Ethiopian troops who helped install Somalia’s fledging government in Mogadishu, the capital, earlier this month began to pull out today, officials said.
read more from the Douglas Farah reported below, the transitional government in Somalia is on very shaky ground and needs immediate assistance from African nations to prevent a reversion to Islamist influence. The presidential palace in Mogadishu has been attacked, presumably by UIC remnants and supporters, and over a dozen explosions and gunfire have been heard in the capital. UPDATE from Reuters: "'Eight mortar shells were fired at Villa Somalia, but only five hit. The other three went into nearby houses,' a senior government source told Reuters, confirming that President Abdullahi Yusuf was inside at the time of the guerrilla-style attack." Reuters also quotes two "ex-fighters" claiming, "Many Islamists have started infiltrating Mogadishu again."
This sounds like a UIC attempt to quickly decapitate the transitional government of its leadership before it gets settled in Mogadishu.

the above quote is from the Counter Terrorism Blog

also, the World Tribune Reports that Sudan may be shopping for Arms in Iran.

"Iranian sources said Teheran has discussed weapons sales to and training for Khartoum's military and security forces. They said Sudan has sought to bolster its military to quell rebellions in Darfour as well as in the south. "There is strong interest in acquiring Iranian missiles, RPGs, UAVs and other equipment," an Iranian source said, referring to rocket-propelled grenades and unmanned aerial vehicles.""
read more

Stay Tuned

-Shimron

*****************************
Saturday, January 20th

Jihad in the Horn: Disease Outbreak Strikes Somali/Kenya Border

THe UN health organization is trying to move into Kismayo because of a Cholrea outbreak.

This yahoo news story tells of current conditions there and furhter west on the Somali border with Kenya.

-Shimron

"OCHA spoke of plans to boost survelliance in the region, the theatre of recent fighting between Ethiopia-backed government troops and Islamist forces, who were ousted from their stronghold in the southern town of Kismayo earlier this month......

......In addition, the agency said cholera has been reported among around 1,000 families that have settled along several Somali-Ethiopia border towns.

"Many of the refugees...[note from Shimron-likely Jihadist Malitia trying to melt into the population]... have settled amongthe local population and are receiving some assistance from them, as well as obtaining casual work in the villages," it said.

"There are no international agencies present in the area and it is not clear to what extent the local authorities are willing to assist," OCHA added in its daily situation update.

So far, Rift Valley fever has killed at least 95 people in Somalia's southern neighbour Kenya, where around 300 other people have been infected since mid-December.

Rift Valley fever patients usually experience fever, generalized weakness, back pain, dizziness, vomiting of blood and extreme weight loss at the onset of the illness.

read more from yahoo news
****************************************

Thusday, January 11, 2007.

The suspected al-Qaida militant who planned the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in east Africa was killed in an American airstrike, a Somalian official said Wednesday."I have received a report from the American side chronicling the targets and list of damage," said Abdirizak Hassan, the Somali president's chief of staff. "One of the items they were claiming was that Fazul Abdullah Mohammed is dead."Mohammed, 32, allegedly planned the attacks on the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania that killed 225 people.

-Stay tune on this one -this is stil unconfirmed

-Shimron

..."One resident, asking not to be named for fear of retribution, said: "We are hearing bombardment in Ras Kamboni. It started around 6am and the strike is now continuing. We can't see planes, but we can hear heavy explosions."

Mosa Aden Hersi, who lives 25km from Ras Kamboni, said earlier fighting in the area had triggered a brush fire. At least 35 civilians were killed along with fighters during the battle."..

..."US and Somali officials said on Wednesday that a small American team has been providing military advice to Ethiopian and Somali forces on the ground. The officials provided little detail and spoke on condition of anonymity."...

-from al jazeera

One Jihadist blog is claiming the Somlia war was trumpted up, saying that "funding for the Islamic Courts came from the governments Qatar of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran...."

read more

**************************

Tuesday, January 9, 2007.

The last of the Islamist fighters are hiding in the Boni forest, on the Kenya border, located about 140 kilometers, or 150 miles, away form Kisamyo.

also, from the New York Times;

WASHINGTON, Jan. 8 — A United States Air Force gunship carried out a strike Sunday night against suspected operatives of Al Qaeda in southern Somalia, a senior Pentagon official said Monday night.
The attack by an AC-130 gunship, which is operated by the Special Forces Command, is believed to have produced multiple casualties, the official said. It was not known Monday night whether the casualties included members of a Qaeda cell that American officials have long suspected was hiding in Somalia.
Special Forces units operating from an American base in Djibouti are conducting a hunt for Qaeda operatives who have been forced to flee Mogadishu, the Somali capital, since Islamic militants were driven from there by an Ethiopian military offensive last month.

read the rest from the New York Times here

*****************************

• Saturday, January 6, 2007.

In the Aftermath of the Rout of Jihadist forces in Somalia, Passports from dozens of countries have been found, reports abc News.

There were Sudanese, Pakistani and Yemeni passports, but several American, British and Australian passports were also recovered, according to a "Senior Somali government official."
read more here

On the same day, al Quaida's second in command calls for Jihad warriors from all over the world to join the Somali fight. read more here


This provides the evidence to support the following:

• The Union of Muslim courts have indeed been hiding al Quaida, training recruits from all over for an attack on Ethiopia. When Ethiopia fell, this would have created a combined front with Sudan.
• They had likely planned an attack on Kenya as well.

What may happen next in the near term

• Look for insurgents in Somalia
• Look for terror attacks in Southern Kenya planned in Muslim friendly Northern Kenya, with funds orginally intended to support their attack against Ethiopia.
• Watch certain Islamic Charities (NGOs) funded by Saudi, UAE, and "mission trips" from the Egyptian faithful as they move into Somalia to care for devistation to Islamic assets.
• Expect Sudan to step up incursions on the Ethiopian Western Frontier.
• Expect a full-court-press from the Al Quida public relations front (press, blogs, firendly governments)blaming Ethipia for invading Somalia in an "unprovoked attack."
• Keep an eye on Jihad training camps in Mali andBburkina Fso, and other under governed areas as they step up training of recruits.
• Monitor communication traffic from logistics and operations command control and communication in Zanzibar, Tansania.
• Watch Sierra Leon, Liberia for the rearming of the old blood diamond terror armies - al Quaida still has connections and access there.
• Watch for traning camps in CAR as well.

In the Medium term, look for the situation to develop further while more Jihad recruits are trained and armed in Africa.

-Shimron Issachar

******************************
Friday, January 5, 2007.

Kenya is patrolling theie North East border. It appears many are trying to cross.. One offical reported 600 have tried so far.

Some who have tried to cross carry suitcases of cash and appear to be foreign financiers of Jihad fleeing Somolia. They have not been alowed to cross.

Kenya is com,ing under fire from the UN for not accepting refugees, but apparently persuing Somali and Ethiopian forces have had some small battles near the Kenyan border.

I am concerned is that there is 400 miles or so of mostly forested wilderness, and I pray none will but it is likely that some Jihadists will slip into Kenya.

read more here from the NY Times and here from the Brittish Broad Casting Corporation (BBC)


-Shimron
********************************************
Monday, January 1, 2007.


Jihadist Troops ( UIC ) lose their final toe-hold in Kismayo, Somalia, and have been run out, according to the New York Times, and the government is now asseting significant control, ordering the turn in of all military weapons.

read the rest



The Assocaited Press reports "hundreds of Islamic fighters — many of them Arabs and South Asians — were seen fleeing the town."

One source reports Inteligence sources claiming that the Somali Jihadist forces seem to consist of:

• Christian and Muslim Eritreans,
• Syrians
• Libyans
• Yemenis.
• Saudi Arabia and Egypt are alegedly supplying some funding and logistical assistance.
• It is allgeged that some Egyptian intelligence officers are advising the Jihadists on how to contend with Ethiopian armed forces

The Associated Press reports that:

• The Islamic Courts Packed up and left their last location, the Port City of Kismayo
• Some Gunmen then began looting the warehouses where the Council of Islamic Courts had stored supplies, including weapons and ammunition.

Some Analysts report that Kenya has reinforced its northern border and U.S. forces are also said to be in the region, including the sea, to prevent foreign militants aligned with the Islamists from escaping.

-I pray that God shows mercy by not allowing these Jihadist warriors to continue to fight in any way.

-Shimron
***************************************
Sunday, Dec 31st. 2006

The Government troops have taken back Baida, then every city south through Mogadishu, the bullet-ridden captial of Somalia. Praise God for answered prayer. The government troops are pressing to the south, again backed by Ethiopian soldiers.

However, there are signs of an Iraq-like Insurgency. The New York Times continutes to provide useful, actinable inteligence to the Jihadists:


"Ethiopian officials have justified the intervention in Somalia by saying that the Islamists were extremists who had their eyes on part of Ethiopia, and said their troops would remain on Somali soil until that threat is wiped out. The Ethiopian and transitional government troops seem to be focused on Mogadishu, but many Somalis suspect that once that city is stabilized, the bulk of the Ethiopian forces will shift to Kismayo. On Friday, Kismayo residents said Ethiopian fighter jets were circling the skies above town."

read the rest from the New york Times


-Shimron
*********************************************
Wednesday, Dec 27, 2006

According to a leaked UN Report to the Security Council the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis is making major inroads into Somalia and establishing an alliance with the Islamic Courts Union.

Read the rest of the Annalysis from the Counter Terrorism Blog
***************************
Islamists have withdrawn to defend Mogadishu

Somali government troups are taking back city after city, preparing to bring Mogadishu under seige.

******************************

Monday, Dec 25, 2006

First Round Defeat

"Our forces and that of the [transitional federal government] have broken the back of the international terrorist forces around Baidoa and they are in full retreat now," he added.


Fighters from the Council of Islamic Courts have retreated from the main frontline after a week of artillery and mortar fighting.


read the rest from Al Jazera


****************************************

Sunday, 24 December 2006.

Using ther best propaganda tool, al Jazedera, The Islamic Defense Chief sent a call out out for fighters from any country to join him in the war that it now underway.

"We're saying our country is open to Muslims worldwide. Let them fight in Somalia and wage jihad, and God willing, attack Addis Ababa," Yusuf Mohamed Siad, known as Inda'ade, said."

Read the rest of the story by al Jazeera


a side note - they are reposnding to his call

LONDON, Dec. 24 (UPI) -- Immigration officers at British airports will begin lifting the veils of passengers to verify identity, The Scotsman said Sunday.
The order came after it was revealed that suspected killer Mustaf Jama flew from London's Heathrow airport to Somalia using his sister's passport. He is believed to have worn a woman's niqab, which has just a slit for eyes, and was not required to lift the veil.

************************************************************

-This is the new African Front that Al Quaida talked about in the last few months. There is already a Jihad Front in Sudan. Ethipia is being attacked by three of its four neighbors. Pray that Ethipia stands, or the Sudan front will join the Somalia front, and become one.

Also, we need to watch the Northern Nigeria front. While it will continue its political struggles in Nigeria, it will continue to train and send in fighters to destabilize its neigobors. This includes most notably, Togo and Benin. Its fighters pass Thre Burkina Faso to other West African countries.

-Shimron

*****************************************
Saturday, 23 December. 2006
The battle for Baida continues. There are Ethipian and Etitrean troops involved. Mortars, tanks and artillary are reportedly in use.

Islamic Courts Union, supported by malitias and outside warriors who call themselves Mujahadin (Holy Warroirs) have taken the whole country except Baida, which may fall soon.
Ethiopia believes that Somalia is training warriors for an invasion accros the Horn of Africa, supported by Al Quaida and possibly Taliban-trained groups. It appears that Islamic recruits from all over at least the region have been training in Somalia for at least this year preparing for a Holy war that some expect to spread much wider than Somalia, perhaps even wider than the Horn of Africa.

How this war got started

This looks like the Second African front for the Jihad.

My long term projection is that the Somalia front will try to join the Sudanese front.

At the swame time, the political fronts will attempt to turn governments in the Jihad

***************************************************





Islamic Malitia launched an offensive against the transitional government of Samalia in the city of Baida. Government forces repeled the attack.
Read here, here and here for more.

This is a training war, prerparing Islamic Troops for their assault West into Ethiopia. They have been recruiting and training soldiers for a Jihad againsgt Ethiopia for some time. I do not believe that these troops are yet ready for their planned attack. This was unexpected, provoked now because Ethiopian troops have entered Somalia to defend ther tranbsition government troops.

-Shimron Issachar
*********************************************************************
"Your safety lies in the following equation: you will not dream of security until we live secure in Palestine and all Muslim lands," Zawahiri said.
"It does not lie in the erroneous equation with which Bush deceives you when he says, 'We strike the terrorists in their countries so that they will not strike in our country'," he added.

read more of Somali Jihdist Threats.


-What he does not tell you is that ALL lands are now or will be Muslim lands, according to his own religious beliefs....The point is, he is telling you that he will never stop trying to kill non-muslims until Islam and Sharia law rule in every land, or until he is killed first

-Shimron

Here is the first skirmish of the war

the BBC reports the following: "An Ethiopian military convoy in Somalia has been ambushed by fighters loyal to the powerful Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), witnesses said on Thursday.
It happened on Tuesday 35km south-west of Baidoa, seat of the weak interim government, who deny it took place. "




read more

The war is underway

-Shimron Islamic Militias Take Another Somali Town By Alisha Read more

*****************************************************************
SOMALIA: Clash erupts in the northeast

NAIROBI, 6 Nov 2006 (IRIN) - Forces loyal to the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) clashed with those who back the self-declared autonomous state of Puntland on Monday in northeastern Somalia, an official said. UIC vice-chairman Sheikh Abdulkadir Ali Umar said the fighting took place near the town of Galinsoor, in Mudug region, 780 km north of the capital, Mogadishu. "Puntland forces in eight technicals [battlewagons] attacked our positions this morning [Monday] on the outskirts of Galinsoor," he said.


Somolians Recruiting Muslim youths in Kenya to fight in Somolia.
The Islamic COurts are preparing for war

-Shimron Issachar


North Eastern Provincial Commissioner, Mr Kiritu Wamae, insists some local leaders were recruiting Kenyan youths for mercenary activities in Somalia.
Wamae refused to apologise over the claims he made on Kenyatta Day after religious leaders gave him a one-week ultimatum to retract the statement failure to which they would organise street protests to demand his sacking.

Wamae stood his ground yesterday and further revealed that the Government had already compiled a list of youths allegedly recruited by troops allied to the Union of Islamic courts in Somalia

read more


Posted to Global security.
Watch this one carefully

-Shimron

****************************************************************
SOMALIA: Islamic Courts warn of possible renewal of civil war
NAIROBI, 9 Oct 2006 (IRIN) - The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), which controls much of southern and central Somalia, has warned of imminent war between it and SomaliaÂ’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which reportedly took a town close to its headquarters in Baidoa on Monday, a senior UIC official told IRIN. click here for more