What does "the Leader" Kadaffi want with Anti-Tank Missiles?

Qaddafi is getting an enormous number of anti-tank missiles from France.
Lets Examine these Missiles:

• This is a start-of-the-art missile
• Range: 3, 000 meters, or about 1.8 miles.
• Penetration: 3 Meters, or over 9 feet of reinforced concrete
• It can be carried without a vehicle, and fired by two people
• We hope it fires like this when they get it.
• Here is more data

When I look at Libya's enemies, who would they need to defend themselves from?

The only people that come to mind are:

• Egypt: No threat
• Chad: Fighting their own war No Threat
• Niger: Trouble near their borders, but nothing these Missiles will improve
• Algeria: AQIM is a threat, but mysteriously not focused on Libya
• Tunisia: No Threat
• Sudan: Best Chums

There are only four possible outcomes of this, all three are bad:

• This re-starts an Arms race in North Africa
• Libya deploys these missiles against Jihadis who capture them and use them elsewhere
• They are transferred either legally or illegally to al Qaeda
• Some international criminal group aquires them for resale...read that anyway you like.

This is a simple system, very easy to use, and in the hands of a small terrorist group of any kind it significantly increases their capacity to penetrate hard targets.

I wonder what is really going on here?

Libyan Arms Deal Tied to Nurse Prisoner Release?

By James Mackenzie

COMMISSION OF INQUIRY

Sarkozy clinched an accord on defence and signed a memorandum of understanding for a nuclear energy deal during his visit to Tripoli.

The opposition Socialists called for a parliamentary commission of inquiry to establish whether the missiles sale was linked to the release of the medics.

"There's a further question, which doesn't have to do with a commission of inquiry, which is, should we have arms deals with a country like Libya, ruled by (Muammar) Gaddafi?"Socialist party leader Francois Hollande told France Inter radio.

Morin said criticism from the Socialists was intended to discredit Sarkozy's part in securing the release of the medics after a mission to Tripoli by his wife Cecilia.

"We're seeing a sort of systematic procedure to demolish a real French diplomatic success," he said.

The Rest @ Reuters

Libya Getting Powerful Anti-Tank Missels from France

Libya close to arms deals with France
By James Mackenzie

PARIS (Reuters) - Libya is set to buy anti-tank missiles and radio systems from European aerospace and defence group EADS, days after a visit to Tripoli by President Nicolas Sarkozy, the French government said on Friday.
France repeated its denials that the sale had been agreed in exchange for the release of a group of foreign medics held in jail for eight years for allegedly infecting Libyan children with HIV, and freed hours before Sarkozy's visit.

Defence Minister Herve Morin said the groundwork had been laid under the previous French government which approved the sale of anti-tank missiles in February, before Sarkozy's victory in the May presidential election.
"Agreement has been granted in principle, so unless there is a technical disagreement of some kind, it will be done at any time now," he told France Info radio.

Other European countries including Britain have been working for defence deals with Tripoli but a Libyan source said the sale would be the first from a Western country since an EU arms embargo was lifted in 2004.

EADS said its MBDA joint venture with Britain's BAE Systems
and Italy's Finmeccanica had finalised an accord to sell Libya Milan missiles, a portable, medium-range anti-tank weapon. It was also in advanced talks on supplying radios.

"This (missile) contract is awaiting the signature of the Libyan client, and EADS is happy that the negotiations could be concluded," EADS said in a statement.
The company made no comment on the value of the deals. A Libyan source said earlier they were worth a total of 296 million euros.

The Rest @ Reuters

A typical case is that of Saad Houssaini, a.k.a. Moustapha, one of Al Qaeda’s most prominent cadres in Spain and North Africa. Born in Meknes, Morocco, from a middle-class family (his father was a professor)—an almost universal pattern among Al Qaeda cadres, Houssaini obtained a government scholarship to study chemistry and physics at the University of Valencia in Spain. It was there that he was attracted, or recruited, to Islamism under the influence of Sheikh Rachid Ghannouchi, the London-based ideologue and leader of Al-Nahda (the Revival), Tunisia’s major Islamist organization. Already under Spanish surveillance, in 1997 he fled to Taliban’s Afghanistan where he underwent further training in explosives in Al Qaeda camps, met other Moroccans, Bin Laden, Al Zarkawi and Al Zawahiri—the latter was a witness at his marriage. Following the U.S. attack in the fall of 2001, he returned to Morocco in April 2002, became a founder of GICM (Moroccan Islamic Combatant Group, now part of the Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb—AQIM) and trainer of its bomb makers. By September 2006 he was running a network of Moroccan volunteers to Iraq, until his arrest in March 2007.[1] It was under the influence of one of the many “nonviolent” Islamist ideologues in Spain harbored by “Londonistan” that he was radicalized, shifted to jihadism, established personal ties to the Al Qaeda core, and later served as a force multiplier for the organization thousands of miles away.

The Rest @ Spero News

SPLM Commemorates Death of Dr. John Garang

July 30, 2007 (KHARTOUM) — Under the slogan of "Two Years for Peace and Democratic Transformation", thousands of Sudanese marked the second anniversary of former SPLM leader John Garang’s tragic death in a helicopter crash, amid renewed calls to uphold the fragile peace deal he brokered.

Pagan Amum (left) and Malik Agar wave their hands to greet people attending the second anniversary of Garang Death, Khartoum, July 30, 2007 (SUNA).
The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) commemorated Monday evening at Khartoum Stadium the second anniversary of death of Dr. John Garang, with participation of folklore groups from the different parts of the Sudan to reaffirm SPLM attachment for a united, and democratic Sudan in implementation of the ideas of Late First Vice President John Garang, the organizers said.
The event was attended by members of the SPLM, National Congress, political forces, political parties and a number of members of the diplomatic corps accredited to Sudan.
The commemoration ceremony was addressed by SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amom, who greeted the masses and called for implementation of the CPA for the sake of unity and stability.
Amum affirmed commitment of the SPLM to all provisions of the CPA. He also urged the withdrwal of the Sudan Armed Forces from the oil fields in Upper Nile and Unity States underscoring that security is well established in these regions.
The occasion was also addressed by the Deputy Secretary General of the SPLM Malik Aggar, who reviewed the stances of late Dr. Garang towards the process of peace, unity and justice equality for creating a new Sudan.
He pointed out that late Dr. John Garang had called for solution of Darfur problem, pointing out that the SPLM is endeavouring for realizing stability in Darfur.
The occasion was also addressed by representative of the National Congress Party Salah Mohamed Adam, who said the memory of late Dr. Garang will remain in the hearts of the Sudanese people, pointing out that the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) will remain the candle that lights the way for overcoming difficulties.
He affirmed commitment of the National Congress to implementation of the CPA.
The state minister at the ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Anna Essito, hailed Garang’s concern for the equality between men and women and urged the implementation of his vision in this regard to create the New Sudan.
The meeting also was addressed by the Kenyan Ambassador and the US chargé d’affaires in Sudan.

The Rest @ Sudan Tribune

Rachid Sid Ali Killed in Algeria

ALGIERS, Algeria (Reuters) -- Algerian security forces have killed the mastermind of suicide bombings including a triple attack in Algiers in April that claimed 33 lives, a government-run newspaper reported on Thursday.

This Algiers police station was one of three targets whose April 11 bombings are blamed on Rachid Sid Ali.

Rachid Sid Ali, a military adviser to the al Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb, was killed on July 30 in the troubled Kabylie region east of Algiers, El Moudjahid said.

He was killed along with his aide Haroun El Achaachi "thanks to the help of the local population of Iboudranene" village near Kabylie's main town of Tizi Ouzou, the daily added, citing a security source.

Attacks plotted by Sid Ali include suicide car bombings at the government headquarters and two police stations in Algiers on April 11 which killed 33 people, and a suicide truck bombing on July 11 that killed at least eight soldiers at a military barracks in Kabylie.

"He supervised the entire operations and gave instructions to film attacks, and he was behind the acquisition of car bombs. He had plans for large-scale attacks," the newspaper reported.

Al Qaeda in the Maghreb, previously known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), swore allegiance to al Qaeda last year and last month vowed more attacks in the Maghreb region of Algeria.

Algerian security forces have stepped up assaults on al Qaeda hideouts after the group switched its focus to high profile bombings in towns and away from hit-and-run attacks on police in the countryside.
Founded in 1998, the GSPC began as an offshoot of another armed group that was waging an armed revolt to establish an Islamic state.
The uprising began in 1992 after army-backed authorities, fearing an Iran-style revolution, scrapped a parliamentary election that an Islamist party was set to win. Up to 200,000 people were killed in the ensuing bloodshed.

The Rest @ CNN World

This is a summarized version of a great PINR report (See below), that illustrates Chinas impact in Africa

-Shimron

The Financial Times reported on July 13 that the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation (C.N.O.O.C.) has signed a deal with Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf to explore the northern Puntland region for oil.

• The initial agreement was signed last May, and it was endorsed at the China-Africa summit held in Beijing last November. [See: "Upcoming Summit Highlights Africa's Importance to China"]
• A meeting between C.N.O.O.C. and Somali officials was held on June 24 to finalize the deal.
• The terms indicate that the Somali government would retain 51 percent of the oil revenues under a production-sharing arrangement.
• Further reporting from the Financial Times, however, revealed that Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi was not aware of the contract, suggesting that the oil deal remains vulnerable to political infighting.
• China's willingness to invest in Somalia -- before the Transitional Federal Government (T.F.G.) completes work on a national oil law and as the security situation continues to deteriorate -- shows that Beijing has not been deterred by the growing backlash across Africa at Chinese policies and remains willing to take on political risks that Western firms will not tolerate.
• Threats to China in Africa Chinese investments have come under attack in recent months, and a general wariness about closer ties with Beijing has become part of the political dialogue in most African countries where China does business.
• Days after the June meeting in Somalia, a Chinese mining executive was kidnapped in Niger.
• The incident followed the killing of nine Chinese workers in Ethiopia, near the border with Somalia, in April.
• Chinese workers have also come under attack in Nigeria in recent months.
• Politically, Chinese investments have become a touchy subject.
• Michael Sata's opposition campaign in Zambia received strong backing after he attacked Chinese investments and threatened to renew ties with Taiwan.
• He ultimately failed in his bid for the presidency, however, after China threatened retaliatory measures if he was elected.
• Similar complaints have been raised in Nigeria and South Africa.
• China began to address the growing unease in Africa toward its investments earlier this year.
• Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Zambia and South Africa in February where he pledged further investments and a greater focus on community development plans.
• China has also publicly used its leverage in Sudan to press Khartoum to accept the terms of last year's U.N. Security Council resolution on the Darfur crisis. [See: "China Adjusts its Approach in Africa" and "China Claims Success on Darfur"]
• Nevertheless, China's fundamental goals in Africa have not changed.
• In Africa, China is looking to secure access to the natural resources it needs to keep its economic expansion humming, as well as support for its policies at the United Nations.
• The C.N.O.O.C. deal in Somalia is evidence that China's risk appetite has not decreased as it pursues these goals in Africa.
• Somalia has no proven oil reserves, and only 200 billion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves.
• Companies including Agip, Shell (Pecten), Conoco and Phillips (now merged), and Amoco (now part of BP) spent over US$150 million on onshore exploration in the 1980s and early 1990s, but no oil reserves were discovered.
• Still Range Resources, a small Australian-based oil firm with close contacts to the government in Puntland, estimates that the region could hold 5 to 10 billion barrels of oil based on an analysis of the previous exploration reports.
• The Puntland province claims autonomy from the government in Mogadishu, but not independence like Somaliland.
• The region has been relatively calm compared to central and southern Somalia since 1991, but the political situation remains uncertain.
• President Yusuf was certainly involved in the negotiations with the Chinese firm, as he hails from the Puntland province and maintains close ties with the local leadership, but the prime minister of the T.F.G. was left out of the loop.
• The fact that Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi was kept out of the negotiations suggests that the terms of the deal are not beneficial to the T.F.G. or Somalia's other provinces.
• This could exacerbate already strained ties between the prime minister and the president. [See: "Somalia Continues its Political Collapse"]The prime minister appears to have led an effort within the T.F.G. to pass a national oil law that would allow Western firms to return to Somalia under production-sharing agreements, which require oil firms to share their production with the government after initial costs are covered.
• He told the Dow Jones Newswire in April that a national oil law would be passed within two months, a deadline that has slipped. The oil law in question seems to be similar to the one pushed in Iraq by the United States, which has also not been passed.
• China may have wished to sign the deal for exploration rights in Puntland before the law was passed, in order to avoid competition with Western majors, but the emergence of a national oil law could threaten the investment. [See: "Sectarian Fighting Overshadows Oil Law Debate in Iraq"]
• The fact that China would enter into an agreement in such an uncertain legal and political environment, to say nothing of the security concerns, shows that it is still willing to take on risks that the Western oil majors cannot tolerate.
• This remains the main competitive advantage for China in the race to secure natural resources around the world -- while Chinese firms do not have the technology to drill in some of the conditions that Western firms can, they do not have the same political and financial constraints that prevent them from investing in regions considered off limits to Western firms.
• Last month, for example, China National Petroleum Corporation (C.N.P.C.) signed a deal to co-develop an offshore block in Sudan, where China has been the dominant player in the oil sector after sanctions caused Western firms to suspend their operations or pull out completely.
• Sudan now supplies up to ten percent of China's oil imports.
• In Angola, China provided $2 billion in soft loans to the government that allowed it to avoid implementing reforms requested by Western donors. In return, Angola ensured that it would provide continuous oil supplies to Beijing. [See: "China and Angola Strengthen Bilateral Relationship"]
• C.N.O.O.C. said earlier this year that it would boost output to 78 million tons from 40.3 million tons last year. In order to maintain growth rates near this level, Beijing will need to continue to help its oil companies invest in regions where Western firms cannot.
• This means that China will fund infrastructure projects in countries under Western sanctions, such as Sudan, or where security concerns dissuade Western firms from investing more, such as Nigeria.
• The decision to invest in Somalia's Puntland region is part of this strategy.
• Only a small firm, such as Range Resources, would be able to take on a similar risk level, and that firm has spent several years courting the local government officials there.
• With the financial and political backing of the Chinese government, C.N.O.O.C. and C.N.P.C. have a distinct advantage over the smaller Western firms.

China's move into Somalia's oil industry is a further example of its strategy for securing access to natural resources around the world.

• Rather than purchasing oil on the global markets, as the United States does for the most part, China prefers to secure control of the resources it needs at the source.
• However, because China's oil firms lack the technical capabilities and political clout of the Western majors, Beijing prefers to deal with regions that are out of reach to the competition.
• This practice has sparked a growing backlash across Africa to China's policies.
• Many locals see Beijing's actions as protecting corrupt and often dictatorial leaders.
• Beijing has attempted to counter this perception recently by investing in infrastructure projects in regions where the backlash is strongest, leaking reports of its unhappiness with the most controversial leaders, and granting local businesses better access to China's markets in some industries.
• The investment in Somalia's Puntland province still looks risky, even by Chinese standards. The deal appears to have been struck with the local officials in the province that claims autonomy from the transitional, central government. However, the president of the T.F.G., who is from the region, was involved in the deal. The prime minister of the T.F.G. appears to prefer another model to attract investments, passing a national oil law that will clarify the legal questions that prevent Western firms from returning to Somalia.
• The Chinese deal may well fall victim to the political infighting that is likely to follow. Still, the T.F.G.'s claim to control Puntland appears to be weakening as the central government remains frozen in a state of political collapse.
• Two days after the Financial Times first reported about the Chinese oil deal, the much awaited national reconciliation conference had to be delayed because security for the meeting could not be guaranteed in Mogadishu. Given the T.F.G.'s uncertainty, Beijing's decision to work with the local representatives in Puntland may well prove to be enough, and China could soon be pumping Somali oil, if it even exists.

Adam Wolfe

The Power and Interest News Report (PINR) is an independent organization that utilizes open source intelligence to provide conflict analysis services in the context of international relations. PINR approaches a subject based upon the powers and interests involved, leaving the moral judgments to the reader. This report may not be reproduced, reprinted or broadcast without the written permission of enquiries@pinr.com. PINR reprints do not qualify under Fair-Use Statute Section 107 of the Copyright Act. All comments should be directed to comments@pinr.com.

The Rest @ PINR