Ethiopias Support of Kenya's Offensive is a Mistake

Ethiopia seems to have moved back into to Somalia 's West to support Kenya's offensive. in the South.
This is a mistake, a failure to recognize the history between Ethiopia and Somalia.

Al Shabaab promptly held recruiting rally's in the areas they still hold, inviting the boys that remain to join the tradition of their ancestors and fight against the invading Ethiopians.This will give energy to a dying Al Shabaab. The Same effect could have been gained by moving many Ethiopian troops up to the border to prevent al Shabaab from escaping to the East,,,,,

-Shimron Issachar

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(Reuters) - Scores of Ethiopian military vehicles pushed at least 80 km into neighboring Somalia on Saturday, residents said, five weeks after Kenya entered Somalia to fight Islamist militants it blames for a wave of kidnappings on its soil.

"The Ethiopian troops, which are in convoys of armored vehicles, come to us today, crossing from Balanbale district on the border," Gabobe Adan, an elder in the town of Guriel told Reuters.

• "They were in about 28 trucks and armed battle wagons - the armed vehicles are very big."
• Other residents told Reuters that the Ethiopians had set up a base in Guriel and moved troops to other towns nearby.

A spokesman for the Ethiopian government, Shimeles Kemal, would neither confirm nor deny the reports. Another Ethiopian official told Reuters that an Ethiopian move to support the Kenyan assault on the al Shabaab group was likely.

Senior Kenyan government ministers have shuttled around the east Africa region this week and travelled to the Gulf to drum up political and financial support for a coordinated campaign to rout the al Qaeda-linked rebels.

Although Ethiopian troops regularly cross the border with Somalia, and it has admitted opening "humanitarian corridors" into the country that it says are for food relief, residents said the numbers and locations of the troops was unusual.

Ethiopia entered Somalia in 2006, with tacit U.S. backing, to oust another Islamist movement that had taken control of the capital Mogadishu and large swathes of the country.

Its army set up a base in Guriel during that operation.

The presence of the Ethiopian troops was hugely unpopular with Somalis, and with some analysts saying it was fanning support for new militant groups, they withdrew in early 2009.

(Writing by Barry Malone; Additional reporting by Aaron Maasho in Addis Ababa and Sahra Abdi in Nairobi)

The Rest @ Reuters

US sends Aid to Somali Transitional Federal Government

The U.S. government has provided about 40 tons of weapons and ammunition to shore up the besieged government of Somalia in the past six weeks and has sent funding to train Somali soldiers, a senior State Department official said yesterday, in the most complete accounting to date of the new American efforts in the strife-torn country.
The official, who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity, said the military aid was worth less than $10 million and had been approved by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and the National Security Council.

"We do not want to see Somalia become a safe haven for foreign terrorists," the official said.
Hard-line Islamist rebels allegedly linked to al-Qaeda have launched an offensive to topple Somalia's relatively moderate government, which has appealed to the United States and other African countries for help. The fighting has killed 250 civilians and forced more than 160,000 people out of their homes in the past month, according to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.

In an indication of the rebels' growing power, they held a ceremony Thursday in the capital, Mogadishu, in which they chopped off a hand and foot from each of four men convicted of stealing cellphones and other items, according to news reports from the region. The punishment was in line with the rebels' harsh version of Islam. The United States considers the rebel group, al-Shabab, a terrorist organization.

Somalia has been racked by violence since dictator Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991. U.S. officials say the bloodshed and lawlessness in the country have caused a massive outflow of refugees and contributed to an upsurge in piracy in the Gulf of Aden. The country has also become a haven for al-Qaeda operatives alleged to have carried out attacks on the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, U.S. officials say.
The African Union has sent troops from Uganda and Burundi to help Somalia's fragile government keep order.

The U.S. aid does not involve the deployment of any troops to Somalia, where 18 American soldiers were killed in the 1993 raid depicted in the movie "Black Hawk Down."

In order to strengthen Somalia's military, the U.S. government is providing cash to its government to buy weapons, and has asked Ugandan military forces there to give Somali soldiers small arms and ammunition, the official said. The U.S. government is then resupplying the Ugandans, he said.

The U.S. government will also help pay for the Kenyan, Burundi and Ugandan militaries to train Somali soldiers, and is providing logistical support for the African Union troops, the official said.
Clinton called Somalia's president, Sharif Ahmed, in recent weeks to consult on the crisis, according to another U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment.

He said the U.S. aid would likely encourage other African countries to do more to help Somalia's government.

U.S. officials accuse Eritrea of supporting the Somali rebels as part of a proxy war with its rival, Ethiopia. But efforts by State Department officials to meet with the Eritrean government have been fruitless so far, the official said.

The Rest @ The Washington Post

Al Qaeda May be Moving from Pakistan to Somalia

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Al Qaeda operatives are leaving the battle zones along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border and heading for Somalia and Yemen, where they have set up training camps, according to U.S. intelligence officials.

Somalian President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has been targeted by al Qaeda.

• The officials believe that al Qaeda may see the Horn of Africa as its new headquarters after dozens of attacks from U.S. drones along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
  
• The officials could not be named because of the sensitive nature of the information.
  However, CIA Director Leon Panetta said the intelligence agency is keeping tabs the region as a possible destination for fleeing al Qaeda operatives.
  

"Our concern right now is that likely safe havens are areas in the Horn of Africa, like Somalia and Yemen, that are countries that because of their political status can be attractive to al Qaeda in order to operate there," Panetta said Thursday.

"We are focusing on those countries as well in order to ensure that there is no safe haven for al Qaeda as we continue to pressure them, continue to push them and hopefully continue to make the effort to destroy them, not only in Pakistan but throughout the rest of the world."

• Residents and journalists in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital city, have reported seeing foreign fighters among Al-Shabaab, the radical Islamic militia that is battling to overthrow the weak transitional government.
• Those foreign fighters have recently distributed recorded messages from al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden calling for the overthrow of President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed's government.

Al-Shabaab is blamed for a surge of violence in Somalia as insurgents fight the government to implement a stricter form of Islamic law, or sharia.

The rebel group has said it has recruited many fighters in its battle. Al-Shabaab, also known as the Mujahedeen Youth Movement, was officially designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S. government in March 2008.

Somalia is not new territory for the militant organization, CNN terrorism analyst Peter Bergen said."Al Qaeda was running training camps in Somalia in the early and mid-1990s," he said. "If this is now coming back, this is something that al Qaeda has already done, and it's worrisome for the future.

"The fact that we're seeing evidence of this already happening in both Yemen and Somalia suggests that, A, the drone program in the tribal areas of Pakistan has been effective, but, B, you know it's pushing al Qaeda into areas where they'll build up larger operations."

The Rest @ CNN

Pursuit and Profile for the Next Somali President

from Royale Somalia by Banaadir

The pursuit and profile for the next Somali presidentThe resignation of the last warlord president of Somalia from office creates both an opportunity for alternative leadership and sadly a perceived power vacuum risk. Within 30 days or so, a new president must be elected by a bigger and blown-up parliament probably by inclusive power-sharing government.

That is very perplexing by just considering the low standards of Somali politics and the customary slow adherences to set time frames of Somalis.The nuisance of spoilers could cause a blow to the power sharing stipulated in the recent Djibouti agreement between the transitional government and the moderate Islamist and hence, create the perceived power vacuum risk.

• The recent Sufi Vs Shabaab sectarian infighting could be a precursor to future descent to more anarchy and violence in Somalia.
• There are those who equate this new sectarian struggle as the Somali version of The Iraqi Anbar Awakening and rejection of the revolting extremism of the Shabaab insurgents.
• One thing is for sure, the Sufis are not the sons of Somalia as there are evidences suggestive of them sleeping with the enemy (Ethiopian occupation army) and with discredited warlords.
• Likewise it is suffice enough to say that Shabaab are not the saviors of Somalia and their extreme sins of grave-scrapping and shrine demolitions should be shunned.

For the moment, let us hope that the situation in Somalia to not worsen than it is now and that it might not spiral down to more splits and blood splitting.

Somalia has abundance of petty politicians, mostly male, incompetent and somewhat tainted in clan rivalries. Even worse’ some have blood on their hands.

Warlords and their cohorts – who came to prominence by the barrel of the gun - are members of the parliament. I am assuming that we all know who they are and that we are all witnesses to the terror and destructions they created in past 18 years.

The men vying for power are part of the transitional government or would join the ranks soon. Some of them are rather incompetent or are beholden to foreign interests. Somalis need to learn from history and never put up with any faction leader or fanatic; or anyone that would bear resemblance of the last warlord president.

The history and the character of last president and his warlord clique are at fault here. He was a rebel, faction leader, stubborn, clannish, and above all a warlord. We still have the warlords in abundance and in circles of power and they are selfishly vying for power.

Wisdom and experience should dictate their isolation.What kind of president Somalia needs and what is the job waiting for the president?Before we answer that question we need to reminisce our past and the first time Somalia had a president. We had a great president and his name was Aden Adde, may Allah bless his soul.

Almost every Somali I know or met adores him and respects him. Adde was not a soldier, or a warlord, or a murderer. He didn’t ascend to power because he led a clan or had clan militias. He was not a religious scholar, fanatic or charlatan.

He was ordinary man who loved his people and country, not his particular clan or town or sect. Maybe we need a man/women like him to lead us out of this misery. Is there anyone like Adde around now?

We have this opportunity that we can’t waste. Almost two decades of mayhem and misery should teach us that we should get rid of all these awful men who were part of the civil war and our suffering. A new blood of leaders, clean of any war crimes, immune to the clannish curse, is needed.

We need leaders, who are capable to unite a divided, starving and warring people, a leader who is conscious that Somalia’s image of failed state and basket case nation is disgrace and intolerable, a leader who can reconcile people and rebuild alliances for the common good, a leader who is above petty personal clashes, a leader who can restore law and order without resorting to shelling on civilian residences or displacing people out of their homes, a leader who doesn’t need clan militias to protect him, a leader who doesn’t have a clan advisors or spokespersons, a leader who doesn’t declare Jihad on Muslims and non-Muslims.

We need a president who can lead a government that can form an environment to promote peace, stability, education , employment and not a warlord secular dictatorship or Taliban-like terror theocracy.

It is easier to catalog these noble but difficult responsibilities than to carry them out. Anyone who dares to volunteer for such onerous tasks must be courageous, and above all exceptionally qualified. Let us try to jot down some of the credentials and qualifications that are needed from such brave leader.

First thing first, the ideal leader would be a god-fearing person endowed with a sound judgment, education and unconditional patriotism to the nation of SOMALIA. The last warlord president and the other warlords around have few of these qualities. Clannish sycophants surround us and we let them dominate us and pave the fate of our people for the worse. Their only ambition is to pursue selfish personal and clannish agendas. Their intellectual capacities and judgments are questionable. We need to exclude these guys and designate them like the pariahs they are.

Somalis are generous to assigning bogus scholarly accolades to people who either have dubious diplomas, apprentices or credentials. Just look at our so-called leaders. Every one of them is undeservedly a doctor, engineer or Sheikh without anything to show off for such venerable titles.

Somalia needs a leader who is educated and went through schooling at higher institutions of learning.

Secondly, we need experienced leader that we can all agree of his/her proven track record in terms of leadership, cooperation and coalition building.

Thirdly we need a leader who can unify our people and can rise above the clan and sectarian divisions that is destructively plaguing us now.

Fourthly, Somalia needs a leader who can abide the constitution and is not above the law. The president must know his/her limits and must respect the balances of power and other branches of government. The leader must practice tenets of democracy, which are as simple as not limiting the freedom of expression, association and individual liberty. The leader must be sophisticated, world-savvy, not someone who shuns other systems or civilizations.There are many detailed and known leadership qualities that can be listed but would needs pages to write them down so I am going to spare of you or taking you back you to ideals and fantasy world of leadership and decision-making.

Who could that Somali leader or president be? And where we can find a Somali with such characteristics who is ready and qualified enough to take the helm of leadership in chaotic and poor Somalia?

Making the right decision is imperative to the survival of Somalia and its restoration as a viable nation-state. Let us be very careful and not repeat the past mistakes. Let us find the right person/persons to lead us of this mess with Allah’s help and blessing. If we mess this opportunity up like we used to do in the past, the consequences would be irremediable.

Abdulkadir Mohamed -

Abaadir0@gmail.com

The Rest @ The New Somlia Blogspot

Abdullahi Yusuf Resigns, Ehtipian Soldiers Prepare to Leave Somalia

MOGADISHU, Somalia: A powerful insurgent group poised to take over Somalia said Wednesday it will fight until the country is ruled by Islamic law, even as Ethiopian troops who have been propping up the government packed up to leave.

The presence of the Ethiopian troops, whom many Somalis see as occupiers in their land, has been a rallying cry for the insurgents to gain recruits even as the militants' strict form of Islam terrified people into submission.

But on Wednesday, the most powerful insurgent group said the departure after two years will not be enough to stop them fighting the government.

"We will not stop fighting even if the Ethiopian troops withdraw because our aim is to implement Islamic law across Somalia," said Sheik Muktar Robow, leader of the most aggressive Islamic insurgency group, al-Shabab.

The Ethiopian troops were packing up to leave Wednesday amid fears their departure will allow the strengthening Islamic insurgency to take over. But it was unclear when the thousands of soldiers would actually depart. They are expected to leave in stages, not all at once.


Ethiopia originally said it would end its unpopular presence here by the end of December, but officials have since declined to give an exact date because of fears of a power vacuum.

Somali military officials and soldiers said the Ethiopians were awaiting word on when to go.
"They have stopped dealing with us, all they could tell us was that they were getting ready for a final departure from Somalia," Somali soldier Fuad Muhumed Afey said of the Ethiopian troops.

Witnesses said many soldiers were packing mattresses, personal belongings and loading trucks with military supplies.

Somalia's former president, Abdullahi Yusuf, who resigned this week, called in Ethiopia for help two years ago to rout Islamic militants who had taken over most of the country. Ethiopia's superior firepower worked — the Islamists were driven from power, however briefly — but an Iraq-style insurgency soon began.

Al-Shabab has taken control of vast amounts of new territory in recent months. Washington accuses al-Shabab of harboring the al-Qaida-linked terrorists who blew up the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.

Many of the insurgency's senior figures are Islamic radicals; some are on the U.S. State Department's list of wanted terrorists.

Yusuf's resignation could usher in more chaos as Islamic militants scramble and even fight among themselves for power. The government controls only pockets of Mogadishu, the capital, and Baidoa, the seat of Parliament.

The Rest @ The International Hearald Tribune
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Ismail Hassan Timir, Somalias Deputy Minister for Reconciliation Assasinated

MOGADISHU: Gunmen yesterday killed a deputy minister in Somalia’s country’s south-central town of Baidoa, witnesses said.

Ismail Hassan Timir, the deputy minister for reconciliation, was shot as he stepped out of his car in Baidoa, the seat of the country’s transitional parliament, a correspondent who saw his body reported.

[....Who had a motive for this assisination? It was likley al Shabaab. They have been engaging local malitia in the South of Somalia who do not have a strong enough Islamist Agenda to suite their tase, and now they have taken out the Reconciliation Minister, the only man both sides trusted to work out the details of the peace deal.... now the rest of the Story from Qatar....
-Shimron]

“We don’t know the identity of the attackers and the motive behind it,” said Mohamed Abdi, a businessman.

“He came out of his car and gunmen sprayed him with bullets,” he added.

Meanwhile, 12 people were killed yesterday when an Islamist group seized control of a central Somali trading town in a battle with hardline Al Shabaab militants, residents said.

Al Shabaab, which means youth in Arabic, captured Gurael, 370km north of the capital Mogadishu on December 6, after three days of fighting with a government-allied moderate Sunni Islamist group in the area.
Locals said the Sunni Islamist group ousted by Al Shabaab three weeks ago had been regrouping and launched their attack yesterday morning.

“I have counted 12 dead fighters lying in the alleys of Gurael,” witness Ali Aden said.

The Rest @ The Peninsila on-line (Qatar)

Abdullahi Yusuf - The Transitional Government of Somalia is Near Colapse

By MOHAMED OLAD HASSANMOGADISHU, Somalia (AP)

— The Somali government is close to collapse because disputes within its ranks have allowed armed Islamic insurgents to take control of much of the country, the president said.

President Abdullahi Yusuf's remarks to about 100 Somali lawmakers in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, late Saturday represent the first admission by any official that the government is losing control.

• Hours earlier, a radical Islamic group seized another Somali port town, consolidating its control over a southwestern region that borders the Somali capital."You know what the situation is. Because of the endless disputes in government, the opposition groups have taken most of the country, including Elasha, which is 18 kilometers (11 miles) from the capital," Yusuf said in comments that received wide coverage on radio stations in Somalia.
• Yusuf said his government only had control of the capital and the southwestern town of Baidoa, which is the seat of Parliament."Imagine how the country's future will be if al-Shabab takes (control of Somalia). It is really at risk," the president said, referring to one of the Islamic groups that has recently made significant territorial gains.

The Somali lawmakers came to Kenya two weeks ago to meet with regional leaders for a one-day meeting to discuss Somalia's future. They have stayed on, in part because many of their families live in the safety of Nairobi.Yusuf appealed to the lawmakers to return to Somalia and take steps aimed at "saving a government on the verge of total collapse."

He said that he had still failed to agree with his prime minister on a Cabinet. Last month, a regional grouping that mediated the formation of Somalia's government gave the Somali leaders until Thursday to form a new Cabinet.

The seven-nation grouping, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, did not say what would happen if the leaders failed to meet the deadline.

In its latest offensive, al-Shabab on Saturday seized without resistance the port town of Barawe, 110 miles (180 kilometers) southwest of Mogadishu.

The U.S. considers al-Shabab — meaning The Youth — a terrorist organization and accuses the group of harboring the al-Qaida-linked terrorists who allegedly blew up the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998, killing more than 230 people.

Officials of a separate Islamic group on Saturday publicly whipped 32 traditional dancers in the southern town of Balad because they said it is "Un-Islamic" for men and women to dance together.

Islamic fighters have seized most of southern Somalia, but unlike in 2006 when they operated under one umbrella group, they are split and at times compete for control of the same key towns.

The Rest @ Gargaar

Relief Web - Shabaab may attack Ethiopia, Eritria, Djibouti or other COuntires in 2009

The following is a reliefweb assessmenbt of the Horn of Africa in 2009. I am in almost complete agreement with this assessment; hoever, I bleieve they have under emphasised the possibility that the Shabaab, fueled by al Qaeda money and claming the victory of after Ethiopian withdrawal, will expand into every country they can.

In fact, Robow has said they plan to expand their attacks until "all of Somalia is under Sharia", and their recent multi-city simultenouse sucicide bombings are a taste of more to come unless steps are taken by the international community.

Robow is in Charge in the South, and Islamic Courts Union no longer has a say in his plans. Make no mistake, his the emir of the Shabaab.


I believe Kenya should be added to Ethiopia, Eritria, Djibouti as countries into which Shabaab will conduct Jihad attacks.

-Shimron Issachar



Horn of Africa's challenges grow - 05 Nov 2008

SUBJECT: The political and economic outlook for the Horn of Africa in 2009.

SIGNIFICANCE: The region in 2009 will continue to see some of the world's worst humanitarian, political, and security crises, but major political changes are in the air that could yield new opportunities for stability.

ANALYSIS: After a turbulent 2008, the Horn of Africa will continue to face serious challenges into 2009, especially in Somalia.

Key insights

• Food insecurity will be a major factor across the region, contributing to economic pressures from high prices and decreased remittances.
• Somalia's TFG and moderate opposition face a steep challenge in implementing the Djibouti Agreement, despite likely Ethiopian withdrawal.
• Ethiopia's border stalemate with Eritrea will continue, though the cost of war is probably too high for both sides.
• Somalia's Shabaab militants may take their insurgency against Ethiopia out of Mogadishu, and into Ethiopia itself or third countries.

Somalia Developments in Somalia will reverberate across the region:

1. Djibouti Agreement. The June 2008 Djibouti Agreement represents a hopeful breakthrough between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and moderate elements of the opposition, the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS).

• The accord commits both sides to a ceasefire, establishes a joint security committee for eventual integration of forces, envisions power-sharing talks, and calls for a UN mission to bolster African Union peacekeepers in order to permit the orderly withdraw of Ethiopian forces.
• However, the new moderate coalition formed under the agreement already faces serious resistance from hardliners in the TFG -- including President Abdullahi Yusuf and his supporters, who control all of the TFG security sector -- and the hardline Islamist Shabaab militia.

2. TFG future. The TFG enters the fifth and final year of its mandate completely dysfunctional and divided.

• There will probably be major leadership changes, and there is a real possibility that the TFG will be driven out of Mogadishu entirely by the insurgents once Ethiopian forces withdraw.
• The TFG's main preoccupation in 2009 will be to convince foreign governments and the UN to extend its mandate, despite its lack of progress.
• Donors do not want to see the TFG fail, and may consider other options even worse.

3. Ethiopian policies. Ethiopia has already redeployed much of its occupying force and appears intent on removing itself from Mogadishu later in November.

• The occupation has proven very costly to Ethiopia financially and diplomatically, and has had a corrosive effect on its military.
• However, Ethiopia has powerful security interests in shaping politics in post-intervention Somalia. It will thus keep some forces along border areas and will provide support to local allies to ensure, at a minimum, that hardline Islamists cannot consolidate control over Mogadishu.

4. Armed opposition. The insurgents in Somalia have essentially won -- they now control most of south and central Somalia and much of the capital.

• However, deep existing divisions between groups will certainly become worse once Ethiopian forces withdraw from Mogadishu and the TFG is no longer viable.
• Sporadic clashes between Islamist and clan militias answering to the ARS and the Shabaab have already occurred, with much more deadly clashes very likely to erupt in 2009 -- fuelled in part by external influences.

5. Humanitarian crisis. Somalia is now the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with 3.2 million people in need of aid, and relief efforts undermined by attacks on aid workers.

• The longer the crisis continues, the greater the danger that displaced Somalis will face famine conditions.
• If security improves in the capital, a massive spontaneous relocation of up to 700,000 displaced persons could result, creating its own relief challenges.

6. Somaliland. October terrorist bombings in Somaliland's capital Hargeysa badly shook residents, and reinforced fears that spill-over from the south will engulf the would-be state.

• Nevertheless, the longer-term impact of the terrorist bombings, for which Shabaab has claimed responsibility, will instead be the discrediting of radical Islamism in Somaliland and a concerted public and government effort to clamp down on hardline Islamists in their community.
• Somaliland is still likely to hold closely contested but not destabilising general elections sometime after March 2009.

7. Puntland and piracy. Security and governance in the northeast state of Puntland deteriorated badly in 2008, a trend that will worsen in 2009.

• Unpaid security personnel are the source of a major crime wave and the region is now the epicentre of the worst concentration of piracy in the world.
• The piracy is likely to face an increasingly heavy-handed international response, including attacks on the mainland lairs of the pirates and on the financial holdings of the powerful patrons behind the piracy.
• Puntland will also face severe security crises in 2009 if the TFG collapses and the uncontrolled government militiamen recruited from Puntland return home.

Border disputes.

The UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea dissolved in 2008, and the stand-off over the disputed border between Ethiopia and Eritrea shows no signs of peaceful resolution.

• Despite a heavy military build-up on the border, the threat of warfare between the two states has abated somewhat; risks are too high to both sides at this time.
• Eritrea's inexplicable border skirmish with neighbouring Djibouti is unlikely to be rekindled, as Djibouti enjoys the support of France and the United States, both of which have military bases there.
• Nevertheless, Ethiopia and Eritrea will continue to engage in proxy wars aimed at destabilising the other.

Ethiopia.

In 2009, Addis Ababa's biggest crisis will be economic, with the possibility of serious public unrest if food insecurity worsens:

Food shortages. A combination of factors -- inflation, high food and fuel costs, drought and security operations -- has resulted in 12 million Ethiopians being in need of emergency food aid.

• This emergency is concentrated in rural areas of eastern and southern Ethiopia, but affects most of the country. Forecasts suggest the crisis will worsen into 2009.
• Violence limits humanitarian access in eastern Ethiopia.

Economic pressures. Years of impressive economic growth are coming to an end, with the IMF's growth forecast for 2009 cut back to 6.4%.

• Remittances from the large diaspora are expected to drop. Pressures on urban households are growing and could spark unrest in major cities, where the government enjoys little support.
• Political clampdown. In April, the government consolidated control of district level political units in elections that were boycotted by the opposition. The government is passing controversial legislation that would severely curtail the activity of civil society groups to engage in any advocacy or human rights work.
• This closure of political space is expected to continue through 2009 despite external protests.

Insurgencies and terror threats.

• Government forces will continue to mount counter-insurgency operations in Somali Regional State against the
• That region will remain very volatile, and military operations will continue to target civilian populations suspected of supporting the ONLF
• The expansion of Shabaab suicide bombings into Somaliland and Puntland, which in one case destroyed an Ethiopian government building in Hargeysa, suggests that Shabaab insurgents intend to take its war with Ethiopia beyond southern Somalia.
• Terrorist attacks against Ethiopian targets inside Ethiopia or in third countries are thus a growing possibility in 2009.

Eritrea.

• Eritrea will continue to face extreme economic duress, including very worrisome food shortages, but will continue to embrace a policy of isolation and autarky in 2009.
• Opposition to the government is too weak to pose any threat of regime change, but the threat of a coup is worth watching if the current leadership allows the country to slip much further into economic collapse.

Djibouti.

Djibouti's incumbent party, the Union for the Presidential Majority, won all 65 seats of parliament in 2008 elections that were boycotted by the opposition.

• President Hassan Gouled will face no serious opposition in 2009, but the threat of terrorist attacks in Djibouti is greater in the wake of the expanded campaign by the Shabaab insurgency.

CONCLUSION: Armed conflict will worsen in Somalia in the short term but is likely to subside in an inconclusive stalemate, as a partial Ethiopian withdrawal removes some of the main drivers of the armed insurgency. Threats of terrorist attacks are greater across the region in 2009, especially against Ethiopian targets. Economic woes and food shortages will be the main preoccupation across the region.

The Rest @ Relief Web

Steve Bloomfield in Nairobi

SOMALIA'S FRAGILE government appears to be on the brink of collapse. Islamist insurgents now controls large parts of southern and central Somalia - and are continuing to launch attacks inside the capital, Mogadishu.

• Ethiopia, which launched a US-backed military intervention in Somalia in December 2006 in an effort to drive out an Islamist authority in Mogadishu, is now pulling out its troops.
• Diplomats and analysts in neighbouring Nairobi believe the government will fall once Ethiopia completes its withdrawal
• Plans have been made to evacuate government ministers to neighbouring Kenya.

A shipment of Ethiopian weapons, including tanks, left Mogadishu port last month as part of the withdrawal.

• Bringing the equipment back to Ethiopia by land would have been impossible - analysts believe Ethiopian troops and their Somali government allies control just three small areas in Mogadishu and a few streets in Baidoa, the seat of parliament.
• There are now estimated to be just 2500 Ethiopian soldiers left inside Somalia, down from 15,000-18,000 at the height of the war.
• Violence and insecurity have made it almost impossible for aid to get through, and 24 aid workers have been killed in Somalia so far this year.
• A recent shipment of food aid needed a military escort to navigate Somalia's pirate-infested waters. But within hours of the food being unloaded in Mogadishu's port most of it was stolen by gun-toting gangs.
• Oxfam, Save The Children and 50 other aid agencies working in Somalia last week said the international community had "completely failed Somali civilians".
• As the crisis worsens thousands are trying to leave the country every week. Around 6000 people are now crossing the border into Kenya every month - despite the Kenyan government's decision to close the border.
• Some are arriving at the overcrowded Dadaab refugee camp in eastern Kenya, which is now one of the largest refugee camps in the world with nearly 250,000 people.
• Others try to leave by sea, travelling to the northern town of Bosasso and paying $100 to people smugglers who ram more than 100 people onto a small fishing boat and set sail for Yemen. Many do not make it. Smugglers last week forced 150 people off the boat three miles off the Yemeni coast. Only 47 made it to shore.

Attempts to find a political solution have stalled. The UN claims progress has been made, citing an agreement signed in neighbouring Djibouti by the Somali government and the opposition Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia (ARS).

But the deal has been signed only by the moderates on each side: Prime Minister Nur Adde and the ARS's Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed.

The Islamist leaders they were so keen to oust are the same ones they are now engaged in negotiations with. US officials have met both Sheikh Sharif and the more hardline Sheikh Aweys in an effort to find a peace deal.

Meanwhile, in Somalia, the Islamists taking control of towns and villages across the country are considered far more extremist than Aweys. "They are real international jihadis," said one Nairobi-based diplomat. "The Americans' fear of al-Qaeda in Somalia is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy."

The Rest @ The Sunday Herald

US Bombs Terrorist Stronghold in Central Somalia

Aircraft bombed an Terrorist rebel stronghold in central Somalia on Thursday, witnesses said, but it was not immediately clear if there were any casualties.

U.S. forces have launched several airstrikes inside Somalia in recent months against al Shabaab insurgents who have been fighting Somalia's Western-backed interim government (TFG)and its Ethiopian military allies since the start of last year."

A plane bombarded the outskirts of our village," said Hassan Maalim in Goobgudud , 30 km (18 miles) southwest of Baidoa.

"The whole earth shook but we don't know the damage or death it caused. It was flying over us since morning."The identity of the aircraft was unclear.

In May, U.S. war planes killed al Shabaab leader Aden Hashi Ayro,Background about Terrorist ADAN HASHI FARAH(AYROW OR AYRO) who was said to be al Qaeda's top man in the country. That attack took place in Dusamareb, also in central somalia just like mogadishu is 90% hawiye .is hawiye Heartland.

Most of them are terrorist sympathizer Al -Shabaab Terrorist has links to al Qaeda and they provided a safe haven for militants including the bombers of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.

Somalia-based al Qaeda operatives were also suspected in a suicide attack on Kenya's coast in 2002 that killed 15 people at an Israeli-owned beach hotel.

Most of the Terrorist are from Hawiye tribe (al-shabaab)
The leadership is mostly sub-clans of Hawiye (Habar Gidir clan) With The Exception Of OGADEN CLAN (ONLF )own hassan turki and Abu Mansur a foot soldier from al-Qaeda.

The Rest @ Terror Free Somalia

By Abdi Sheikh and Ibrahim Mohamed

MOGADISHU (Reuters) - Somalia's warring parties pounded each other with artillery in Mogadishu on Friday after an African Union military aircraft defied a rebel ban on planes using the capital's international airport.

Witnesses said at least 15 people were killed.

The bombed-out city's airport had been abandoned since Tuesday after Islamist insurgents from the hardline al Shabaab group vowed to shoot down any aircraft trying to land there.

In another demonstration of their increasing strength, the Islamists also chased away pro-government militia manning roadblocks in the south of the lawless Horn of Africa nation.

On Friday, a plane carrying AU peacekeepers braved the rebel threats and touched down at the Mogadishu airstrip, provoking a barrage of mortar fire from the insurgents.

Government forces and their Ethiopian allies responded with missiles, heavy machine guns and mortar rounds of their own.

An AU spokesman in the city said the aircraft had been carrying troops from Burundi, but that none of them were hurt.

As usual in Somalia, civilians bore the brunt of the fighting. At least four residents died and seven were injured when one shell detonated in the Kilometre 4 area of Mogadishu.

SHELLS KILL CIVILIANS

"A group of local teenagers was sitting playing cards here under a big tree," witness Abdullahi Farah told Reuters. "Now their flesh is scattered everywhere."

Residents said six bodies lay in another area and that a house nearby was hit and burning with three bodies inside.

An official at the city's main Madena Hospital said about 50 wounded civilians had been admitted. Two of them, including a two-year-old child, later died of their injuries.

The Rest @ Reuters Africa

Mogadishu Airport Nas No Landings in 2 Days AFter Shabaab Threat

MOGADISHU, Somalia Sep 17 (Garowe Online) - Somalia's Islamist al Shabaab insurgent group issued a public threat earlier this week, warning that the capital Mogadishu's Aden Adde International Airport will not work after September 16.

No planes have landed at the airport since Monday, airport employees told Garowe Online.
Secret talks at Mogadishu' s Bakara market between Islamic Courts officers, local business leaders, airline company officials and al Shabaab fighters, reliable sources said.

The talks are aimed at convincing al Shabaab not to attack commercial airplanes landing at the airport, which is guarded by African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeepers.
"Our planes cannot land at the airport," said an airline industry source who did not want to be named. But he declined to explain whether or not airline companies are worried about a possible al Shabaab attack.

Somali government officials have maintained that Aden Adde International Airport is open for business, but AMISOM spokesman Major Barigye Bahoku confirmed to reporters that no commercial airplanes have landed in the past two days.

Attacks

• Several people were killed in insurgent attacks in Mogadishu since Tuesday night, witnesses and officials said.
• The violence raged across three districts in Mogadishu, including the relatively quiet Kaaraan district and the violence-ridden district of Yaaqshiid.
• Abdullahi Mohamed Roble, Kaaraan's district commissioner, said the attack on his home and the local police station was "organized by clan militia."
• "Are there any Ethiopian soldiers here [in Kaaraan] or are some groups against the peace here [in Kaaraan]?" Mr. Roble said in comments to the media.
• Islamic Courts spokesman Abdirahim Isse Addow claimed responsibility for the attack, saying they killed a few soldiers who had "set up illegal roadblocks" in Kaaraan.
• In a separate attack, al Shabaab fighters attacked a police station and claimed to have killed six soldiers and lost two fighters during the battle. Somali military officials rejected the claims, arguing that the troops defended themselves against the insurgent attack.
  Witnesses told Garowe Online that two children died when a shell hit their home and a lso wounded their two parents.
• The Rest @ Garowe Online
  Source: Garowe Online
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Islamic Emirate of Somalia breaking away from Somalia

Leaders of Shabaab, the Young Mujahideen Movement in Somalia, stated Friday that the group is preparing for the establishment of an Islamic Emirate and that an announcement is expected within days. The statement came as the group consolidated power in the Lower Juba region, which borders Kenya, and formed a sharia-based administration in Kismayo.Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Mukhtar Robow, who is also known as Abu Mansur, and top leader Sheikh Fuad Mohamed Qalaf told a Paltalk forum organized by the radical al Qimmah Forum that fighters "are close to uniting their ranks" and would integrate under the rule of the Islamic Emirate of Somalia. They said that the formation of the emirate is "imminent" and that an announcement would be made "very soon."..

The Rest @ The Longware Journal.

Nigerian Fighting with Shabaab Killed by Ethipean Troops

Ethiopian Army Kill 10 Rebels in Somalia

September 5, 2008

The Ethiopian army on Friday evening said it killed 10 Al-Shabaab fighters including one Nigerian who was fighting alongside the belligerents in Somalia. An Ethiopian Television (ETV) reporter in Mogadishu said the peacekeepers were engaged in a battle with the Somalian Al Shabaab militia when they attempted to ambush the army.

The incident occurred on route from Baidowa to Dollo.
Reports said the Nigerian fighter was identified as Saad Mohammed Al Sad but gave no further details on the man’s identification.

The ETV report also indicated that the Ethiopian army also seized a quantity of assorted arms as well as a vehicle that was used by the fighters.


The Rest @ Net News Publisher

Ethiopia May Withdraw from Somalia

Ethiopia hints that they may withdraw from Somalia, and The Shabaab and Islamic Courts Union suggest that they have given the Somali people a great victory with repelling the invaders.

Ethiopia is right that African Union has dropped the ball, and the US then sees that they must intervene to prevent a the setting up a spot of land that al Qaeda has stated they will use as a base to establish a multi-national caliphate.

Below are links that describe both points of view:

-Shimron

Ethiopia's story (Reuters, August 28th, 2008)

Nairobi - Ethiopia could withdraw its troops from war-torn Somalia even if the transitional government is not stable, but will hold on at least until the AU deploys additional peacekeepers, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said.

Ethiopian troops invaded neighbouring Somalia in 2006 to help kick out the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and put the transitional federal government back in power.

• Ethiopia has long worried that instability in Somalia and the existence of Somali separatist groups in Ethiopia's Ogaden region only increases the anxiety.
• "The operation has been extremely expensive, so we will have to balance the domestic pressures on the one hand and pressures in Somalia on the other and try to come up with a balanced solution," Zenawi told the Financial Times in an interview.
• The Somali government and some moderate opposition leaders recently signed a peace agreement, but Islamic insurgent group al-Shabaab - the armed wing of the UIC - has refused to recognise it.

Al-Shabaab says Ethiopian must leave Somalia before any kind of peace can be achieved.
UN agencies say over 6 000 civilians have died in the insurgency that exploded in early 2007. Hundreds of thousands of Somalis who fled fighting in the capital Mogadishu are now living in camps.

• Ethiopian troops, backed by a small contingent of AU soldiers, have struggled to contain the insurgents, who last Friday seized control of the strategic port town Kismayo.
• Despite Zenawi's apparent impatience with the state of play and also squabbles between the Somali president and prime minister, he said that Ethiopia would "hold the ring" until the AU could deploy more peacekeepers.
• However, he made it clear that Ethiopia was not happy with carrying the burden by itself, with little backing from the AU and no backing from the international community.

"We didn't anticipate that the international community would be happy riding the Ethiopian horse and flogging it at the same time for so long," he told the British daily.

Only a quarter of the planned 8 000-strong AU force has been deployed so far. The UN has also been mulling sending in a peacekeeping force, but has so far taken no action.

Shabaab - UIC's Story (August 29th, 2008)

UIC: We destroyed the Ethiopian dream Fri, 29 Aug 2008 20:48:09 GMT

Zenawi had said Ethiopia was to leave Somalia urgently. The Somali opposition has commented on the news about the 'urgent' Ethiopian withdrawal from Somalia saying they dashed the Ethiopians' hopes.

• We destroyed the Ethiopian dream and taught them an unforgettable lesson, the spokesman for the Somali opposition, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC)'s military wing Al-Shabaab, Abdi Rahim Isse Addow told a Press TV correspondent.
• The Al-Shabaab spokesman added that they were elated by the news about the pullout which would mark a turning point in Somalia's recent beleaguered history.
• He noted that Ethiopia brushed off the international community's advice against (the 2006) Somalia invasion which the troops carried out with US encouragement.

"Somalia is too great a nation to fall to Ethiopia. We form an independent state which won freedom a long time ago" - added the spokesman who had earlier vowed they would fight off the Ethiopians even throughout the holy month of Ramadan.

The Rest @ Press TV (Iran)

Somalia Bombers Kill 21 Street Cleaning Women

MOGADISHU, Somalia (CNN) -- A roadside bombing in Somalia's capital killed 21 women who were cleaning rubbish from a southern Mogadishu street on Sunday morning, a hospital official said.

The bomb blast wounded another 46 people, most of them Somali women who had gathered to clean Maka Al Mukarama Road in southern Mogadishu's Kilometer 4 district, according to Medina Hospital director Dr. Dahir Dhere.

"It suddenly turned the area into a carnage, scattering body parts of the street cleaners into a large area," said witness Asha Ise Gedi. "There were pools of blood everywhere. I have never seen such mass killing."

"They were innocent poor mothers or sisters," Gedi said. "Why did they deserve this?"
It is unclear who is behind the attack.

• Mogadishu Mayor Mohamed Omar Habeb Mohamed Dhere, who was recently fired by the country's prime minister, blamed the Islamic Courts Union for waging the attack.
• But the head of the Islamist insurgent group, Abid Rahim Ise Adow, denied any involvement and blamed Somalia's government for orchestrating the attack. \

The victims were participating in a program that allows Somali women to work as street cleaners in exchange for food. The United Nations' World Food Program organized the program, which began last year and is administered by Mogadishu's regional authority.

On Saturday, two-thirds of the Somali government ministers announced their resignations, blaming Prime Minister Nur Hassan Nur Ade's "dictatorship," which they said included his firing of Mogadishu's mayor.

Nur Ade said he suspects the mass resignations were aimed at weakening implementation of the peace agreement between Somalia's transitional government and the opposition Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia.
He said he had no plans to resign.

CNN's Alan Duke and journalists Mohamed Amin Adow and Abdi

The Rest @ CNN

Is There a Shabaabi Cease Fire being Discussed?

Somalia has a "window of opportunity'' to end its 17-year civil war and needs help from the international community to enforce a cease-fire agreed upon last month, said Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein.

Islamists from the al-Shabaab militia rejected last month's Asamara agreement and continued attacks on the Ethiopian and Somali Federal troops.

Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein said that he hoped the preliminary cease-fire agreement will be concluded "very soon'' at a meeting in Saudi Arabia. He didn't elaborate.

Under terms of the Asamara agreement agreement, militias loyal to the transitional government and the ARS are to stop fighting within 30 days of the truce becoming final.

Ethiopian forces that helped oust the Islamic Courts Union government from Mogadishu are then to withdraw within four months and be replaced by a UN peacekeeping force.

The Rest @ Bloomberg

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason McLure in Addis Ababa via Johannesburg at pmrichardson@bloomberg.net.

Is There a Shabaabi Cease Fire being Discussed?

Somalia has a "window of opportunity'' to end its 17-year civil war and needs help from the international community to enforce a cease-fire agreed upon last month, said Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein.

Islamists from the al-Shabaab militia rejected last month's Asamara agreement and continued attacks on the Ethiopian and Somali Federal troops.

Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein said that he hoped the preliminary cease-fire agreement will be concluded "very soon'' at a meeting in Saudi Arabia. He didn't elaborate.

Under terms of the Asamara agreement agreement, militias loyal to the transitional government and the ARS are to stop fighting within 30 days of the truce becoming final.

Ethiopian forces that helped oust the Islamic Courts Union government from Mogadishu are then to withdraw within four months and be replaced by a UN peacekeeping force.

The Rest @ Bloomberg

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason McLure in Addis Ababa via Johannesburg at pmrichardson@bloomberg.net.

Shabaab Worried About Support in Bay and Bakool Regions

5 Jul 5, 2008 - 7:33:09 PM

BAIDOA, Somalia July 5 (Garowe Online) - Al Shabaab militants in Somalia have issued a threat to some of the country's lawmakers, saying that the armed group "will attack Baidoa" if lawmakers do not stop their support for an upcoming military operation.

Muktar Robow "Abu Mansur," spokesman for al Shabaab, told Mogadishu media that the group had received credible intelligence that some lawmakers belonging to the Digil and Mirifle clan-family of Bay and Bakool regions are planning to attack al Shabaab bases in the area.

"The Digil and Mirifle parliamentarians want to attack Islam and to bring conflict to peaceful regions," said Abu Mansur, himself a member of the Digil and Mirifle clan-family.

Al Shabaab guerrillas have been very active in Bay and Bakool regions and have recently gained control of several districts in the region. ...

....So far, no lawmaker has responded to al Shabaab's threats but one insider told Garowe Online that Abu Mansur's threat is an "indication" that the armed group is worried about its support base in Bay and Bakool regions.

-The Rest @ Garowe OnLine

Two Shabaab Leaders Killed in Attack on Ethiopian Convey

.......Among the 53 dead on Tuesday were Moalim Farhan, commander of the militant group that attacked the convoy, and Abdullahi Ali Farah, also known as Sheikh Aspro, a spokesman for the insurgents told Reuters.

The Rest @ Report On Arrakis